{ "source": "source_info/midterms-2026-dashboard.html", "snapshot": "Nov 4, 2026, ~1–8 AM ET (state races) and ~12–3 PM ET (House)", "externallyVerified": false, "data": { "summary": [ { "metric": "snapshot", "value": "Nov 4, 2026, ~1–8 AM ET (state races) and ~12–3 PM ET (House)", "note": "when results pages were read" }, { "metric": "takeaway", "value": "Democrats flipped the House and Senate on a median district swing of D+14.3 points versus 2024, and the swing was so uniform that a one-parameter model — add the median swing to every district's 2024 margin — calls 96% of decided districts correctly; final polls understated Democrats by about 5 points.", "note": "headline" }, { "metric": "approval_exit", "value": "38", "note": "CNN/Edison exit poll, Trump approval" }, { "metric": "generic_ballot_final", "value": "D+8.7", "note": "avg of Silver Bulletin, DDHQ, RCP, FiftyPlusOne, NBC aggregates" }, { "metric": "house_dem_called_plus_leads", "value": "259", "note": "seats" }, { "metric": "house_uncalled", "value": "43", "note": "districts" }, { "metric": "demo_finding", "value": "The swing was strikingly uniform: across the 253 districts on unchanged lines, demographics explain only about 18% of the variation. The correlations that do exist point the same way — bigger swings where the population is whiter (r = -0.30), where fewer adults hold a bachelor's degree (r = -0.19) and in denser districts (r = +0.19) — while the 2024 presidential margin itself barely predicts the swing (r = -0.05).", "note": "computed" }, { "metric": "uniform_swing_seats", "value": "262", "note": "D seats implied by applying the median swing to every district" }, { "metric": "uniform_swing_accuracy", "value": "95.7%", "note": "share of called districts the uniform-swing rule gets right" } ], "tally": [ { "office": "House", "races": "435", "called": "392", "uncalled": "43", "dem_won": "242", "rep_won": "150", "dem_flips": "37", "rep_flips": "2", "uncalled_dem_leading": "17", "uncalled_rep_leading": "23", "dem_held_notup": "0", "rep_held_notup": "0" }, { "office": "Senate", "races": "35", "called": "33", "uncalled": "2", "dem_won": "20", "rep_won": "13", "dem_flips": "7", "rep_flips": "0", "uncalled_dem_leading": "1", "uncalled_rep_leading": "1", "dem_held_notup": "34", "rep_held_notup": "31" }, { "office": "Governor", "races": "36", "called": "33", "uncalled": "3", "dem_won": "21", "rep_won": "12", "dem_flips": "4", "rep_flips": "0", "uncalled_dem_leading": "3", "uncalled_rep_leading": "0", "dem_held_notup": "0", "rep_held_notup": "0" } ], "state_races": [ { "race_id": "AL-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Alabama", "state_abbr": "AL", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Everett Wess", "rep_candidate": "Barry Moore", "dem_pct": "44.5", "rep_pct": "55.5", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.0", "margin_prev": "-20.44", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-30.9", "margin_poll": "-23.6", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (9/21-10/16)", "swing_vs_prev": "9.44", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.9", "local_residual": "5.04", "poll_error": "12.6", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "27.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "63.1", "pct_urban": "57.7", "median_household_income": "62212.0", "notes": "Open seat (Tuberville retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 10:05 PM EST; counts as of Nov 4 1:24 AM EST. Ratings per Wikipedia state page (Sep 2026)." }, { "race_id": "AK-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Alaska", "state_abbr": "AK", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Mary Peltola", "rep_candidate": "Dan Sullivan", "dem_pct": "47.66", "rep_pct": "48.52", "other_pct": "3.82", "pct_reported": "68", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.89", "margin_prev": "-13.35", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-13.66", "margin_poll": "1.88", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling", "swing_vs_prev": "12.46", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.77", "local_residual": "-2.09", "poll_error": "-2.77", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Toss-up", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "57.5", "pct_urban": "64.9", "median_household_income": "88121.0", "notes": "UNCALLED. DDHQ counts Nov 4 4:12 AM EST: Sullivan +1,796 votes (0.86 pts) at 68%; other_pct = Gerald Heikes (R) 2.16. Top-four RCV general; absentee/early counting continues for days and RCV tabulation applies if no majority. prev_dem_pct is Al Gross (independent, Democratic-endorsed) in 2020; no Democrat on 2020 ballot. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Oct 2026). Poll avg from RCP race page (date of snapshot unclear; Wikipedia Sep 11 showed RCP Peltola 49.7 / Sullivan 47.7)." }, { "race_id": "AR-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Arkansas", "state_abbr": "AR", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Hallie Shoffner", "rep_candidate": "Tom Cotton", "dem_pct": "42.29", "rep_pct": "54.11", "other_pct": "3.6", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.26", "margin_prev": "", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-31.29", "margin_poll": "-10.27", "poll_avg_source": "PollCheck final average", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.03", "local_residual": "4.17", "poll_error": "-1.99", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "24.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "68.5", "pct_urban": "55.5", "median_household_income": "58700.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:33 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% reported (counts Nov 4 1:29 AM EST). Other = Jeff Wadlin (L) 3.60. No Democrat ran in 2020 (Cotton 66.5 vs Libertarian 33.5), so prev_dem_pct blank. No RCP/Silver Bulletin/Wikipedia aggregate; PollCheck average used." }, { "race_id": "CO-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Colorado", "state_abbr": "CO", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "John Hickenlooper", "rep_candidate": "Mark Baisley", "dem_pct": "60.47", "rep_pct": "35.38", "other_pct": "4.15", "pct_reported": "75", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "26.18", "margin_prev": "9.52", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "11.32", "margin_poll": "20.77", "poll_avg_source": "PollCheck final average", "swing_vs_prev": "16.66", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.86", "local_residual": "0.0", "poll_error": "5.41", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "43.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "65.1", "pct_urban": "86.0", "median_household_income": "92911.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:00 PM EST; counts Nov 4 2:14 AM EST. Other includes Robert Chew (Colorado Forward) 2.55. No RCP/Silver Bulletin/Wikipedia aggregate; PollCheck average used. Ratings per Wikipedia (spring 2026)." }, { "race_id": "DE-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Delaware", "state_abbr": "DE", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Chris Coons", "rep_candidate": "Michael Katz", "dem_pct": "63.56", "rep_pct": "36.44", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.12", "margin_prev": "22.1", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "14.95", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "5.02", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.17", "local_residual": "-2.69", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "58.6", "pct_urban": "82.6", "median_household_income": "82174.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% reported (counts Nov 4 1:23 AM EST). No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "FL-SEN-SP", "office": "Senate", "state": "Florida", "state_abbr": "FL", "special": "Y", "dem_candidate": "Angie Nixon", "rep_candidate": "Ashley Moody", "dem_pct": "48.0", "rep_pct": "50.9", "other_pct": "1.1", "pct_reported": "92", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.93", "margin_prev": "-16.57", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-13.22", "margin_poll": "-7.96", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (9/28-10/20)", "swing_vs_prev": "13.63", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.29", "local_residual": "-4.57", "poll_error": "5.03", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "32.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "51.5", "pct_urban": "91.5", "median_household_income": "73311.0", "notes": "Special election for remainder of Marco Rubio's term; Moody appointed Jan 2025. DDHQ call Nov 3 8:01 PM EST (CBS 8:41 PM). Counts via PollCheck/civicAPI Nov 4 7:36 AM EST; other = Neil Gillespie (I) 1.1. prev = 2022 Rubio vs Demings. Ratings per Wikipedia (Sep 2026)." }, { "race_id": "GA-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Georgia", "state_abbr": "GA", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Jon Ossoff", "rep_candidate": "Mike Collins", "dem_pct": "59.0", "rep_pct": "41.0", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "18.0", "margin_prev": "1.2", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-2.22", "margin_poll": "8.7", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (9/21-10/17)", "swing_vs_prev": "16.8", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.22", "local_residual": "5.36", "poll_error": "9.3", "rating": "Likely D", "cook_rating": "Likely D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.6", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "50.1", "pct_urban": "74.1", "median_household_income": "74632.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 7:18 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% reported (counts Nov 4 4:25 AM EST). prev = Jan 2021 runoff (Ossoff vs Perdue). Ratings: Cook/Sabato per Ballotpedia summary table (Oct 6 2026); Inside Elections Tilt D per Ballotpedia timeline (moved Oct 1) -- Ballotpedia table showed Likely D, so IE rating is uncertain." }, { "race_id": "ID-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Idaho", "state_abbr": "ID", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "(none; David Roth withdrew Jul 28)", "rep_candidate": "Jim Risch", "dem_pct": "", "rep_pct": "56.5", "other_pct": "43.5", "pct_reported": "97", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "-30.55", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-37.51", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "Silver Bulletin (via Wikipedia, Oct 26)", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "78.9", "pct_urban": "69.2", "median_household_income": "74942.0", "notes": "No Democrat on ballot. Main challenger Todd Achilles (I, ex-Democratic legislator) 33.7; Natalie Fleming (I) 6.9; Matt Loesby (L) 2.9 -> other_pct 43.5. DDHQ call Nov 4 12:31 AM EST; counts via PollCheck Nov 4 6:36 AM EST (97%). Silver Bulletin avg Risch 50.6 / Achilles 34.6 (dem blank)." }, { "race_id": "IL-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Illinois", "state_abbr": "IL", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Juliana Stratton", "rep_candidate": "Don Tracy", "dem_pct": "60.85", "rep_pct": "37.57", "other_pct": "1.58", "pct_reported": "87", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.65", "margin_prev": "17.06", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "11.13", "margin_poll": "13.54", "poll_avg_source": "PollCheck final average", "swing_vs_prev": "6.6", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.52", "local_residual": "-2.34", "poll_error": "10.12", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "36.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "58.3", "pct_urban": "86.9", "median_household_income": "80306.0", "notes": "Open seat (Durbin retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST; counts Nov 4 12:53 AM EST. Other = Whitfield Harrington (American Center) 1.58. No RCP/Silver Bulletin/Wikipedia aggregate; PollCheck used." }, { "race_id": "IA-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Iowa", "state_abbr": "IA", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Josh Turek", "rep_candidate": "Ashley Hinson", "dem_pct": "50.47", "rep_pct": "46.43", "other_pct": "3.1", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "4.17", "margin_prev": "-6.8", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-13.44", "margin_poll": "0.77", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling", "swing_vs_prev": "10.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.61", "local_residual": "2.75", "poll_error": "3.4", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean R", "inside_elections_rating": "Toss-up", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "82.7", "pct_urban": "63.2", "median_household_income": "71433.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D. Open seat (Ernst retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 11:16 PM EST (AP/CBS 11:34 PM); DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:10 AM EST). Other = Thomas Laehn (L) 3.10. Ratings per Ballotpedia summary (Nov 2026). RCP avg from race page (Wikipedia Sep 10 showed RCP Hinson 44.5 / Turek 44.0)." }, { "race_id": "KS-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Kansas", "state_abbr": "KS", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Adam Hamilton", "rep_candidate": "Roger Marshall", "dem_pct": "50.92", "rep_pct": "46.05", "other_pct": "3.03", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.02", "margin_prev": "-12.0", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-16.5", "margin_poll": "2.42", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolitics (via Wikipedia, updated Nov 1)", "swing_vs_prev": "17.02", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.52", "local_residual": "6.66", "poll_error": "2.6", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Toss-up", "inside_elections_rating": "Toss-up", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "72.3", "pct_urban": "72.3", "median_household_income": "70333.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D; first Democrat elected to US Senate from Kansas since 1932. DDHQ call Nov 3 10:48 PM EST (NBC/AP ~11:26 PM); DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 4:57 AM EST). Other = David Graham (L) 3.03. NBC/AP at 94.2%: Hamilton 51.1 / Marshall 45.9. Ratings per Wikipedia (Oct 29-30 2026)." }, { "race_id": "KY-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Kentucky", "state_abbr": "KY", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Charles Booker", "rep_candidate": "Andy Barr", "dem_pct": "42.93", "rep_pct": "54.97", "other_pct": "2.1", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.3", "margin_prev": "-20.42", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-31.1", "margin_poll": "-11.91", "poll_avg_source": "Race to the WH (via Wikipedia, Sep 11)", "swing_vs_prev": "8.12", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.8", "local_residual": "3.94", "poll_error": "-0.39", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "26.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "81.3", "pct_urban": "58.7", "median_household_income": "61118.0", "notes": "Open seat (McConnell retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 8:26 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:07 AM EST). Other = Christopher Campbell (unaffiliated) 2.10. No RCP/Silver Bulletin/Wikipedia average; Race to the WH aggregate used." }, { "race_id": "LA-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Louisiana", "state_abbr": "LA", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Jamie Davis", "rep_candidate": "Julia Letlow", "dem_pct": "49.1", "rep_pct": "50.9", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "99", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.8", "margin_prev": "-51.47", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-22.36", "margin_poll": "0.22", "poll_avg_source": "PollCheck final average", "swing_vs_prev": "49.67", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.56", "local_residual": "5.7", "poll_error": "-2.02", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Lean R", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "26.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "55.8", "pct_urban": "71.5", "median_household_income": "58229.0", "notes": "Incumbent Bill Cassidy (R) lost renomination in new closed party primary. DDHQ call Nov 4 12:33 AM EST; counts via PollCheck/civicAPI Nov 4 6:05 AM EST (99%). prev = 2020 jungle primary (Cassidy 59.3 / Perkins 19.0). Ratings per Ballotpedia Nov 3 update. No RCP/SB/Wikipedia general-election aggregate; PollCheck used." }, { "race_id": "ME-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Maine", "state_abbr": "ME", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Troy Jackson", "rep_candidate": "Susan Collins", "dem_pct": "53.3", "rep_pct": "45.4", "other_pct": "1.3", "pct_reported": "88", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.0", "margin_prev": "-9.21", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "7.05", "margin_poll": "3.72", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (10/16-11/1)", "swing_vs_prev": "17.21", "swing_vs_pres2024": "0.96", "local_residual": "-13.9", "poll_error": "4.29", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Toss-up", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "90.2", "pct_urban": "38.6", "median_household_income": "73733.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D; Collins conceded (CBS call Nov 4 12:52 AM EST; DDHQ also called). Counts from RCP results row at 88%; DDHQ at 83% had Jackson 53.39 / Collins 45.37. Primary winner Graham Platner withdrew Jul 10 2026 after a sexual-assault allegation; Jackson chosen at Jul 25 state convention. Ratings per Ballotpedia summary table (its text said all raters Toss-up as of Oct 27)." }, { "race_id": "MA-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Massachusetts", "state_abbr": "MA", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Ed Markey", "rep_candidate": "John Deaton", "dem_pct": "63.8", "rep_pct": "31.7", "other_pct": "4.5", "pct_reported": "75", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "33.61", "margin_prev": "33.47", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "25.93", "margin_poll": "29.83", "poll_avg_source": "Silver Bulletin (via Wikipedia, Sep 29)", "swing_vs_prev": "0.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.69", "local_residual": "-7.17", "poll_error": "3.78", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "45.9", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "67.6", "pct_urban": "91.3", "median_household_income": "99858.0", "notes": "Called (civicAPI/PollCheck Nov 4 6:43 AM EST; counts 75%). Other = Shiva Ayyadurai (I) 2.3, Joe Tache (PSL) 2.2." }, { "race_id": "MI-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Michigan", "state_abbr": "MI", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Abdul El-Sayed", "rep_candidate": "Mike Rogers", "dem_pct": "52.3", "rep_pct": "45.6", "other_pct": "2.1", "pct_reported": "94", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "6.84", "margin_prev": "1.73", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-1.43", "margin_poll": "2.02", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (9/24-10/22)", "swing_vs_prev": "5.11", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.27", "local_residual": "-6.59", "poll_error": "4.82", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "31.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "72.4", "pct_urban": "73.5", "median_household_income": "69183.0", "notes": "Open seat (Peters retiring). DDHQ call Nov 4 1:15 AM EST (CBS 2:30 AM). Counts via PollCheck/civicAPI Nov 4 5:42 AM EST (94%). Other = Christensen (L) 1.0 + minor. Ratings per Ballotpedia summary (Nov 2026)." }, { "race_id": "MN-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Minnesota", "state_abbr": "MN", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Peggy Flanagan", "rep_candidate": "Michele Tafoya", "dem_pct": "53.7", "rep_pct": "43.5", "other_pct": "2.8", "pct_reported": "100", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.49", "margin_prev": "5.74", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "4.3", "margin_poll": "5.62", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (10/5-11/1)", "swing_vs_prev": "4.75", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.19", "local_residual": "-8.67", "poll_error": "4.88", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Lean D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "38.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "76.3", "pct_urban": "71.9", "median_household_income": "85086.0", "notes": "Open seat (Tina Smith retiring). DDHQ call Nov 4 12:05 AM EST (CBS 12:19 AM). MN SoS 4,105/4,105 precincts (PollCheck Nov 4 4:05 AM EST). Other = Simonetti (I) 1.5, Whiting (L) 1.1. Ratings per Ballotpedia summary table (text said all Likely D as of Aug 11)." }, { "race_id": "MS-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Mississippi", "state_abbr": "MS", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Scott Colom", "rep_candidate": "Cindy Hyde-Smith", "dem_pct": "49.06", "rep_pct": "48.83", "other_pct": "2.11", "pct_reported": "96", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.23", "margin_prev": "-10.18", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-23.15", "margin_poll": "-10.71", "poll_avg_source": "Race to the WH (via Wikipedia, Sep 12)", "swing_vs_prev": "10.42", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.39", "local_residual": "8.53", "poll_error": "10.94", "rating": "Likely R", "cook_rating": "Likely R", "sabato_rating": "Likely R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "23.9", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "55.4", "pct_urban": "46.3", "median_household_income": "54203.0", "notes": "UNCALLED. DDHQ counts Nov 4 2:01 AM EST (>95%): Colom +2,169 votes; later reporting (~5:30 AM ET) had Colom ahead by fewer than 50 votes with ~96% in. Other = Ty Pinkins (I) 2.10. Recount/provisional ballots likely decisive. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Oct 27: Cook and Sabato moved to Likely R)." }, { "race_id": "MT-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Montana", "state_abbr": "MT", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Alani Bankhead", "rep_candidate": "Kurt Alme", "dem_pct": "11.9", "rep_pct": "48.1", "other_pct": "40.0", "pct_reported": "74", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "-10.0", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-20.54", "margin_poll": "-32.09", "poll_avg_source": "Silver Bulletin (via Wikipedia, Sep 18)", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "83.1", "pct_urban": "53.4", "median_household_income": "70804.0", "notes": "Open seat (Daines withdrew at filing deadline). Main challenger Seth Bodnar (I, Tester-backed) 38.1 is in other_pct (plus Kyle Austin L 1.8). DDHQ call Nov 4 1:13 AM EST; counts via PollCheck/civicAPI Nov 4 7:36 AM EST (74%). Silver Bulletin avg Bodnar 26.1. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Oct 27)." }, { "race_id": "NE-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Nebraska", "state_abbr": "NE", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "(none; Cindy Burbank withdrew Jul 2026)", "rep_candidate": "Pete Ricketts", "dem_pct": "", "rep_pct": "49.11", "other_pct": "50.89", "pct_reported": "85", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "-25.2", "prev_year": "2024", "margin_pres2024": "-20.77", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "Silver Bulletin (via Wikipedia, Nov 1)", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Lean R", "cook_rating": "Lean R", "sabato_rating": "Lean R", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "75.7", "pct_urban": "73.0", "median_household_income": "74590.0", "notes": "No Democrat on ballot; Dan Osborn (I, Democratic-endorsed) 44.92 is in other_pct (plus Robin Richards NWP 2.62 and others). DDHQ call Nov 4 1:34 AM EST (CBS 4:01 AM); counts Nov 4 2:11 AM EST (85%). prev = 2024 special (Ricketts vs Preston Love Jr.) since Ricketts was appointed 2023. Silver Bulletin avg Osborn 46.0 (dem blank). Ratings per Wikipedia (Oct 29-30)." }, { "race_id": "NH-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "New Hampshire", "state_abbr": "NH", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Chris Pappas", "rep_candidate": "John E. Sununu", "dem_pct": "56.4", "rep_pct": "41.7", "other_pct": "1.9", "pct_reported": "90", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.98", "margin_prev": "16.07", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "2.84", "margin_poll": "8.55", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (10/2-11/1)", "swing_vs_prev": "-1.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.14", "local_residual": "-2.71", "poll_error": "6.44", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "39.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "87.2", "pct_urban": "58.3", "median_household_income": "96838.0", "notes": "Open seat (Shaheen retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST (CBS 8:21 PM). Counts from RCP results row at 90%. Other = Edmond LaPlante (Constitution) ~1.9. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Nov 2 2026)." }, { "race_id": "NJ-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "New Jersey", "state_abbr": "NJ", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Cory Booker", "rep_candidate": "Justin Murphy", "dem_pct": "62.34", "rep_pct": "35.08", "other_pct": "2.58", "pct_reported": "92", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.98", "margin_prev": "16.62", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "6.01", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "11.37", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.97", "local_residual": "7.11", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "42.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "51.9", "pct_urban": "93.8", "median_household_income": "99781.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST; counts Nov 4 12:45 AM EST. Other = Veronica Fernandez 1.65 + minor. No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "NM-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "New Mexico", "state_abbr": "NM", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Ben Ray Lujan", "rep_candidate": "Larry Marker", "dem_pct": "63.16", "rep_pct": "36.84", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "26.32", "margin_prev": "6.27", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "6.13", "margin_poll": "19.52", "poll_avg_source": "PollCheck final average", "swing_vs_prev": "20.05", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.19", "local_residual": "5.33", "poll_error": "6.8", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "36.5", "pct_urban": "74.5", "median_household_income": "62268.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:32 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:38 AM EST). Marker won GOP nomination as a write-in. No RCP/SB/Wikipedia aggregate; PollCheck used." }, { "race_id": "NC-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "North Carolina", "state_abbr": "NC", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Roy Cooper", "rep_candidate": "Michael Whatley", "dem_pct": "58.7", "rep_pct": "39.1", "other_pct": "2.2", "pct_reported": "100", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "20.04", "margin_prev": "-1.88", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-3.35", "margin_poll": "11.63", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (10/1-11/1)", "swing_vs_prev": "21.92", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.39", "local_residual": "8.53", "poll_error": "8.41", "rating": "Likely D", "cook_rating": "Likely D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Lean D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.9", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "60.5", "pct_urban": "66.7", "median_household_income": "70804.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D. Open seat (Tillis retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 8:25 PM EST (CBS 8:30 PM). NC SBE 2,626/2,626 precincts (PollCheck Nov 4 1:14 AM EST). Other = Shannon Bray (L) 1.3, Michael Dublin (G) 0.9. Ratings per Ballotpedia summary (Oct 6 2026)." }, { "race_id": "OH-SEN-SP", "office": "Senate", "state": "Ohio", "state_abbr": "OH", "special": "Y", "dem_candidate": "Sherrod Brown", "rep_candidate": "Jon Husted", "dem_pct": "50.0", "rep_pct": "45.1", "other_pct": "4.9", "pct_reported": "100", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.15", "margin_prev": "-6.11", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-11.31", "margin_poll": "3.61", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolitics (via Wikipedia, Oct 18)", "swing_vs_prev": "11.26", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.47", "local_residual": "1.61", "poll_error": "1.54", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.4", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "75.9", "pct_urban": "76.3", "median_household_income": "67769.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D. Special election for remainder of JD Vance's term; Husted appointed Jan 2025. DDHQ call Nov 3 11:16 PM EST (CBS 11:11 PM). Ohio SoS 8,834/8,834 precincts (PollCheck Nov 4 7:46 AM EST). Other = Redpath (L) 2.8, Levy (I) 2.0. prev = 2022 Vance vs Ryan. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Nov 3)." }, { "race_id": "OK-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Oklahoma", "state_abbr": "OK", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "N'Kiyla Thomas", "rep_candidate": "Kevin Hern", "dem_pct": "39.21", "rep_pct": "57.29", "other_pct": "3.5", "pct_reported": "86", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.74", "margin_prev": "-27.69", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-34.96", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "8.95", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.23", "local_residual": "1.37", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "27.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "60.8", "pct_urban": "64.6", "median_household_income": "62138.0", "notes": "Open seat: Markwayne Mullin resigned Mar 2026 (DHS Secretary); appointee Alan Armstrong (R) barred from running. DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST; counts Nov 4 2:08 AM EST. prev = 2022 special (Mullin vs Kendra Horn), the last election for this seat. No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "OR-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Oregon", "state_abbr": "OR", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Jeff Merkley", "rep_candidate": "David Brock Smith", "dem_pct": "56.7", "rep_pct": "40.58", "other_pct": "2.72", "pct_reported": "67", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "16.57", "margin_prev": "18.3", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "14.85", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "-1.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.72", "local_residual": "-13.14", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "35.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "71.7", "pct_urban": "80.5", "median_household_income": "80160.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 11:00 PM EST; counts Nov 4 2:16 AM EST (67%). Other includes Chris Henry (Progressive/Green) 1.82. No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "RI-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Rhode Island", "state_abbr": "RI", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Jack Reed", "rep_candidate": "Raymond McKay", "dem_pct": "66.73", "rep_pct": "29.49", "other_pct": "3.78", "pct_reported": "89", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.7", "margin_prev": "33.2", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "14.08", "margin_poll": "21.65", "poll_avg_source": "Race to the WH (via Wikipedia, Sep 11)", "swing_vs_prev": "5.5", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.62", "local_residual": "9.76", "poll_error": "17.05", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "36.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "68.7", "pct_urban": "91.1", "median_household_income": "84972.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:00 PM EST; counts Nov 3 11:20 PM EST (89%). Other = Michael Bahry (I) 3.78." }, { "race_id": "SC-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "South Carolina", "state_abbr": "SC", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Annie Andrews", "rep_candidate": "Darline Graham", "dem_pct": "51.25", "rep_pct": "46.76", "other_pct": "1.99", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "4.58", "margin_prev": "-10.44", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-18.05", "margin_poll": "-2.89", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (9/28-10/18)", "swing_vs_prev": "15.02", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.63", "local_residual": "7.77", "poll_error": "7.48", "rating": "Lean R", "cook_rating": "Lean R", "sabato_rating": "Lean R", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.6", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "62.1", "pct_urban": "67.9", "median_household_income": "67804.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D. Lindsey Graham died Jul 11 2026; Gov. McMaster appointed his sister Darline Graham Jul 13; she won the Aug 25 special GOP primary and lost here as the appointed incumbent. DDHQ call Nov 3 9:54 PM EST (CBS 10:00 PM); DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:25 AM EST). Other = Whitener (L) 1.16 + Hackett (Constitution). Ratings per Ballotpedia summary (Nov 2026)." }, { "race_id": "SD-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "South Dakota", "state_abbr": "SD", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "(none; Julian Beaudion withdrew Aug 4)", "rep_candidate": "Mike Rounds", "dem_pct": "", "rep_pct": "61.19", "other_pct": "38.81", "pct_reported": "91", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "-31.4", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-29.92", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "Silver Bulletin (via Wikipedia, Oct 6)", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.4", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "79.6", "pct_urban": "57.2", "median_household_income": "71810.0", "notes": "No Democrat on ballot; Brian Bengs (I) 38.81 is other_pct. DDHQ call Nov 3 10:02 PM EST; counts Nov 4 2:15 AM EST (91%). Silver Bulletin avg Bengs 43.5 (dem blank)." }, { "race_id": "TN-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Tennessee", "state_abbr": "TN", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Marquita Bradshaw", "rep_candidate": "Bill Hagerty", "dem_pct": "43.75", "rep_pct": "54.31", "other_pct": "1.94", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.77", "margin_prev": "-27.72", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-30.09", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "16.95", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.32", "local_residual": "4.46", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "70.9", "pct_urban": "66.2", "median_household_income": "67631.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:51 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 1:36 AM EST). No polling aggregate found (single Targoz poll Aug: Hagerty 51 / Bradshaw 31)." }, { "race_id": "TX-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Texas", "state_abbr": "TX", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "James Talarico", "rep_candidate": "Ken Paxton", "dem_pct": "54.12", "rep_pct": "44.02", "other_pct": "1.86", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.29", "margin_prev": "-9.86", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-13.79", "margin_poll": "2.72", "poll_avg_source": "RealClearPolling (10/15-11/1)", "swing_vs_prev": "20.15", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.08", "local_residual": "9.23", "poll_error": "7.57", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Toss-up", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "32.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "39.8", "pct_urban": "83.7", "median_household_income": "75780.0", "notes": "FLIP R->D; first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. Incumbent Cornyn lost GOP runoff to Paxton (May 26). DDHQ call Nov 3 10:14 PM EST (CBS 10:55 PM); DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:20 AM EST). Other = Ted Brown (L) 1.86. RCP results row at 95%: Talarico 55.1 / Paxton 43.0. Ratings per Ballotpedia (Nov 3)." }, { "race_id": "VA-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Virginia", "state_abbr": "VA", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Mark Warner", "rep_candidate": "Bert Mizusawa", "dem_pct": "61.05", "rep_pct": "38.95", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.1", "margin_prev": "12.11", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "5.82", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "9.99", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.28", "local_residual": "1.42", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "41.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "58.6", "pct_urban": "75.6", "median_household_income": "89931.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 7:00 PM EST (poll close); DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 1:27 AM EST). No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "WV-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "West Virginia", "state_abbr": "WV", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "Rachel Fetty Anderson", "rep_candidate": "Shelley Moore Capito", "dem_pct": "37.91", "rep_pct": "58.33", "other_pct": "3.76", "pct_reported": "88", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-21.22", "margin_prev": "-44.5", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-42.71", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "23.28", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.49", "local_residual": "6.63", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "22.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "89.1", "pct_urban": "44.6", "median_household_income": "55948.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 7:30 PM EST; counts Nov 4 1:51 AM EST (88%). Other = S. Marshall Wilson (Constitution) 3.76. No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "WY-SEN", "office": "Senate", "state": "Wyoming", "state_abbr": "WY", "special": "N", "dem_candidate": "James W. Byrd", "rep_candidate": "Harriet Hageman", "dem_pct": "34.76", "rep_pct": "65.24", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-30.48", "margin_prev": "-46.2", "prev_year": "2020", "margin_pres2024": "-47.02", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "15.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.54", "local_residual": "1.68", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "81.4", "pct_urban": "62.0", "median_household_income": "72415.0", "notes": "Open seat (Lummis retiring). DDHQ call Nov 3 9:00 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% (counts Nov 4 2:02 AM EST). No polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "AL-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Alabama", "state_abbr": "AL", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Doug Jones", "rep_candidate": "Tommy Tuberville", "dem_pct": "48.0", "rep_pct": "52.0", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.0", "margin_prev": "-39.23", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-30.9", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "35.23", "swing_vs_pres2024": "26.9", "local_residual": "12.04", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "27.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "63.1", "pct_urban": "57.7", "median_household_income": "62212.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 11:10 PM EST; DDHQ shows >95% reported. No polling aggregate; last poll RMG Research Sep 21-25 Jones 37 / Tuberville 50." }, { "race_id": "AK-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Alaska", "state_abbr": "AK", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins", "rep_candidate": "Bernadette Wilson", "dem_pct": "48.97", "rep_pct": "29.46", "other_pct": "21.57", "pct_reported": "67", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.88", "margin_prev": "-35.03", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-13.66", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "59.91", "swing_vs_pres2024": "38.54", "local_residual": "23.68", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Tossup", "sabato_rating": "Tossup", "inside_elections_rating": "Lean R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "57.5", "pct_urban": "64.9", "median_household_income": "88121.0", "notes": "Uncalled (no DDHQ call). Top-4 ranked-choice general: Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 48.97, Wilson (R) 29.46, Dave Bronson (R) 14.16, unattributed 7.41; other_pct includes Bronson. RCV tabulation pending. No polling aggregate; ratings from Wikipedia overview (Sep 2026)." }, { "race_id": "AZ-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Arizona", "state_abbr": "AZ", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Katie Hobbs", "rep_candidate": "Andy Biggs", "dem_pct": "55.83", "rep_pct": "42.49", "other_pct": "1.68", "pct_reported": "76", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "13.57", "margin_prev": "0.6", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-5.56", "margin_poll": "9.01", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Oct 11 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "12.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.13", "local_residual": "4.27", "poll_error": "4.56", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "31.8", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "53.4", "pct_urban": "89.3", "median_household_income": "77315.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:11 PM EST. pct_reported 76 read from DDHQ #DecisionMade row (earlier snapshot showed 64%); treat as approximate. Other = Risa Lombardo (Green) 0.87 + unlisted." }, { "race_id": "AR-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Arkansas", "state_abbr": "AR", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Fredrick Love", "rep_candidate": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", "dem_pct": "38.55", "rep_pct": "53.84", "other_pct": "7.61", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-16.55", "margin_prev": "-28.31", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-31.29", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "11.76", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.74", "local_residual": "-0.12", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "24.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "68.5", "pct_urban": "55.5", "median_household_income": "58700.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:46 PM EST; >95% reported. Other = Colt Shelby (Lib). No aggregate; only poll Hendrix College Aug 11-12 Love 40 / Sanders 45." }, { "race_id": "CA-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "California", "state_abbr": "CA", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Xavier Becerra", "rep_candidate": "Steve Hilton", "dem_pct": "63.96", "rep_pct": "36.04", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "67", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.92", "margin_prev": "18.4", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "20.87", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "9.52", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.05", "local_residual": "-7.81", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "35.9", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "34.7", "pct_urban": "94.2", "median_household_income": "95521.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 11:13 PM EST. Top-two general (no third candidates). No polling aggregate found on Wikipedia page; ratings from Wikipedia overview." }, { "race_id": "CO-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Colorado", "state_abbr": "CO", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Phil Weiser", "rep_candidate": "Victor Marx", "dem_pct": "60.94", "rep_pct": "33.65", "other_pct": "5.41", "pct_reported": "77", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.85", "margin_prev": "19.75", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "11.32", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "9.1", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.53", "local_residual": "2.67", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "43.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "65.1", "pct_urban": "86.0", "median_household_income": "92911.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:14 PM EST. Other incl. Greg Lopez (I) 2.78. No general-election polling aggregate." }, { "race_id": "CT-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Connecticut", "state_abbr": "CT", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Ned Lamont", "rep_candidate": "Ryan Fazio", "dem_pct": "58.53", "rep_pct": "41.47", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "83", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "17.06", "margin_prev": "13.02", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "14.75", "margin_poll": "15.04", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/RaceToTheWH/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep 17 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "4.04", "swing_vs_pres2024": "2.31", "local_residual": "-12.55", "poll_error": "2.02", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "41.4", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "63.2", "pct_urban": "86.3", "median_household_income": "91665.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:16 PM EST." }, { "race_id": "FL-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Florida", "state_abbr": "FL", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "David Jolly", "rep_candidate": "Byron Donalds", "dem_pct": "48.71", "rep_pct": "50.02", "other_pct": "1.27", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.33", "margin_prev": "-19.52", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-13.22", "margin_poll": "-4.64", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), late Oct 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "18.19", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.89", "local_residual": "-2.97", "poll_error": "3.31", "rating": "Lean R", "cook_rating": "Lean R", "sabato_rating": "Lean R", "inside_elections_rating": "Lean R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "32.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "51.5", "pct_urban": "91.5", "median_household_income": "73311.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:28 PM EST; >95% reported. R hold confirmed. Other = Scott Jewett (Lib) 0.46 + unlisted. Ratings as of Oct 27 (moved from Likely R)." }, { "race_id": "GA-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Georgia", "state_abbr": "GA", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "rep_candidate": "Rick Jackson", "dem_pct": "54.16", "rep_pct": "45.84", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.32", "margin_prev": "-7.55", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-2.22", "margin_poll": "-0.63", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), late Oct 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "15.87", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.54", "local_residual": "-4.32", "poll_error": "8.95", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Tossup", "sabato_rating": "Tossup", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D (flip)", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.6", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "50.1", "pct_urban": "74.1", "median_household_income": "74632.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:13 PM EST; >95% reported. D FLIP confirmed." }, { "race_id": "HI-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Hawaii", "state_abbr": "HI", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Josh Green", "rep_candidate": "Gary Cordery", "dem_pct": "74.68", "rep_pct": "25.32", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "49.36", "margin_prev": "26.4", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "23.55", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "22.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "25.81", "local_residual": "10.95", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "21.6", "pct_urban": "86.1", "median_household_income": "95322.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 1:30 AM EST. No polls." }, { "race_id": "ID-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Idaho", "state_abbr": "ID", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Terri Pickens", "rep_candidate": "Brad Little", "dem_pct": "33.78", "rep_pct": "55.57", "other_pct": "10.65", "pct_reported": "89", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-24.39", "margin_prev": "-49.75", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-37.51", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "25.37", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.13", "local_residual": "-1.73", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "78.9", "pct_urban": "69.2", "median_household_income": "74942.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 11:32 PM EST. Other incl. John Stegner (I) 7.77. No aggregate; Change Research Jul 28-30 Little 48 / Pickens 27." }, { "race_id": "IL-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Illinois", "state_abbr": "IL", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "JB Pritzker", "rep_candidate": "Darren Bailey", "dem_pct": "59.4", "rep_pct": "37.24", "other_pct": "3.36", "pct_reported": "89", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.93", "margin_prev": "12.85", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "11.13", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "10.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.8", "local_residual": "-3.06", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "36.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "58.3", "pct_urban": "86.9", "median_household_income": "80306.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:20 PM EST. Other = Collin Corbett (I). No aggregate; PPP Sep 30-Oct 1 Pritzker 54 / Bailey 34." }, { "race_id": "IA-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Iowa", "state_abbr": "IA", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Rob Sand", "rep_candidate": "Zach Lahn", "dem_pct": "55.48", "rep_pct": "44.52", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.96", "margin_prev": "-18.97", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-13.44", "margin_poll": "6.14", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/FiftyPlusOne/RaceToTheWH/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "29.93", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.4", "local_residual": "9.54", "poll_error": "4.82", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D (flip)", "sabato_rating": "Lean D (flip)", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D (flip)", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "82.7", "pct_urban": "63.2", "median_household_income": "71433.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:57 PM EST; >95% reported. D FLIP confirmed (open seat, Reynolds retired)." }, { "race_id": "KS-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Kansas", "state_abbr": "KS", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Cindy Holscher", "rep_candidate": "Ty Masterson", "dem_pct": "50.26", "rep_pct": "49.74", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.52", "margin_prev": "2.27", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-16.5", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "-1.75", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.02", "local_residual": "2.16", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Lean R", "cook_rating": "Lean R (flip)", "sabato_rating": "Lean R (flip)", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt R (flip)", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "72.3", "pct_urban": "72.3", "median_household_income": "70333.0", "notes": "Uncalled: no DDHQ #DecisionMade as of Nov 4 4:57 AM EST; Holscher +0.5 pts (~5,500 votes) with >95% reported; ~57k votes outstanding per 2:30 AM reports. No aggregate; GSG (D) Aug 13-16 Holscher 47 / Masterson 46." }, { "race_id": "ME-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Maine", "state_abbr": "ME", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Hannah Pingree", "rep_candidate": "Robert Charles", "dem_pct": "55.36", "rep_pct": "36.63", "other_pct": "8.01", "pct_reported": "87", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "20.36", "margin_prev": "13.56", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "7.05", "margin_poll": "13.02", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/FiftyPlusOne/RaceToTheWH/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep 11 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "6.8", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.31", "local_residual": "-1.55", "poll_error": "7.34", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "34.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "90.2", "pct_urban": "38.6", "median_household_income": "73733.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:29 PM EST. Other = Rick Bennett (I) 8.01. Maine uses RCV but Pingree over 50%." }, { "race_id": "MD-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Maryland", "state_abbr": "MD", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Wes Moore", "rep_candidate": "Dan Cox", "dem_pct": "62.71", "rep_pct": "33.25", "other_pct": "4.04", "pct_reported": "85", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "30.7", "margin_prev": "33.54", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "29.47", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "-2.84", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.23", "local_residual": "-13.63", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "42.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "47.2", "pct_urban": "85.6", "median_household_income": "98678.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:32 PM EST. Other incl. Andy Ellis (Green) 2.06. No aggregate; Zenith Jul 27-Aug 3 Moore 58 / Cox 31." }, { "race_id": "MA-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Massachusetts", "state_abbr": "MA", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Maura Healey", "rep_candidate": "Mike Minogue", "dem_pct": "62.61", "rep_pct": "34.11", "other_pct": "3.28", "pct_reported": "85", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "29.47", "margin_prev": "29.6", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "25.93", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "-0.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.54", "local_residual": "-11.32", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "45.9", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "67.6", "pct_urban": "91.3", "median_household_income": "99858.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:13 PM EST. Other = Andrea James (I). No aggregate; Suffolk Jun 8-12 Healey 56 / Minogue 31." }, { "race_id": "MI-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Michigan", "state_abbr": "MI", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Jocelyn Benson", "rep_candidate": "John James", "dem_pct": "54.54", "rep_pct": "43.73", "other_pct": "1.73", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "11.0", "margin_prev": "10.77", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-1.43", "margin_poll": "7.54", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Oct 21 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "0.23", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.43", "local_residual": "-2.43", "poll_error": "3.46", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tilt D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "31.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "72.4", "pct_urban": "73.5", "median_household_income": "69183.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:45 PM EST; >95% reported. Other = Anthony Hudson (Lib) 0.93 + unlisted. Duggan independent bid suspended May 2026." }, { "race_id": "MN-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Minnesota", "state_abbr": "MN", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Amy Klobuchar", "rep_candidate": "Lisa Demuth", "dem_pct": "55.52", "rep_pct": "42.66", "other_pct": "1.82", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "13.1", "margin_prev": "7.95", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "4.3", "margin_poll": "12.08", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (RaceToTheWH/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep 15 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "5.15", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.8", "local_residual": "-6.06", "poll_error": "1.02", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "38.2", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "76.3", "pct_urban": "71.9", "median_household_income": "85086.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 12:03 AM EST; >95% reported. Incumbent Walz (DFL) retired. Other = Steven Young (Green)." }, { "race_id": "NE-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Nebraska", "state_abbr": "NE", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Lynne Walz", "rep_candidate": "Jim Pillen", "dem_pct": "42.26", "rep_pct": "50.69", "other_pct": "7.05", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.07", "margin_prev": "-24.38", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-20.77", "margin_poll": "-9.05", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/RaceToTheWH/Silver Bulletin), Oct 2 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "15.31", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.7", "local_residual": "-3.15", "poll_error": "-0.02", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Likely R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "75.7", "pct_urban": "73.0", "median_household_income": "74590.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 1:03 AM EST; >95% reported. Other incl. Brett Lindstrom (America First) 4.39." }, { "race_id": "NV-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Nevada", "state_abbr": "NV", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Aaron Ford", "rep_candidate": "Joe Lombardo", "dem_pct": "51.73", "rep_pct": "44.12", "other_pct": "4.15", "pct_reported": "87", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.94", "margin_prev": "-1.56", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-3.16", "margin_poll": "-0.23", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), late Oct 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "9.5", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.1", "local_residual": "-3.76", "poll_error": "8.17", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Tossup", "sabato_rating": "Tossup", "inside_elections_rating": "Tossup", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "26.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "45.9", "pct_urban": "94.1", "median_household_income": "76364.0", "notes": "Uncalled by DDHQ as of Nov 4 6:06 AM EST; Ford (D) leads +7.6 with 87% reported (would be D flip). Other incl. Danielle Ford (I) 2.72. Nevada counts mail ballots for days after election." }, { "race_id": "NH-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "New Hampshire", "state_abbr": "NH", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Cinde Warmington", "rep_candidate": "Kelly Ayotte", "dem_pct": "47.61", "rep_pct": "50.88", "other_pct": "1.51", "pct_reported": "91", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.32", "margin_prev": "-9.5", "prev_year": "2024", "margin_pres2024": "2.84", "margin_poll": "-12.46", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (RaceToTheWH/RCP), Aug 24 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "6.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-6.16", "local_residual": "-21.02", "poll_error": "9.14", "rating": "Likely R", "cook_rating": "Likely R", "sabato_rating": "Likely R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "39.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "87.2", "pct_urban": "58.3", "median_household_income": "96838.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 1:06 AM EST. R HOLD (Ayotte), not a flip; early reports of a Warmington win were wrong. Other = Stephen Villee (Lib). 2-year term; prev = 2024." }, { "race_id": "NM-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "New Mexico", "state_abbr": "NM", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Deb Haaland", "rep_candidate": "Gregg Hull", "dem_pct": "57.25", "rep_pct": "42.75", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.5", "margin_prev": "6.56", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "6.13", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "7.94", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.37", "local_residual": "-6.49", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.1", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "36.5", "pct_urban": "74.5", "median_household_income": "62268.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:33 PM EST; >95% reported. No general-election polling aggregate found." }, { "race_id": "NY-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "New York", "state_abbr": "NY", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Kathy Hochul", "rep_candidate": "Bruce Blakeman", "dem_pct": "59.83", "rep_pct": "40.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "19.66", "margin_prev": "6.4", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "12.7", "margin_poll": "13.18", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep-Oct 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "13.26", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.96", "local_residual": "-7.9", "poll_error": "6.48", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "38.8", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "52.5", "pct_urban": "87.4", "median_household_income": "82095.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:50 PM EST." }, { "race_id": "OH-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Ohio", "state_abbr": "OH", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Amy Acton", "rep_candidate": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "dem_pct": "52.31", "rep_pct": "44.38", "other_pct": "3.3", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.2", "margin_prev": "-25.05", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-11.31", "margin_poll": "4.97", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Oct 16 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "33.25", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.51", "local_residual": "4.66", "poll_error": "3.23", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Tossup", "sabato_rating": "Tossup", "inside_elections_rating": "Tossup", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.4", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "75.9", "pct_urban": "76.3", "median_household_income": "67769.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:30 PM EST; >95% reported. D FLIP confirmed (also projected by ABC). Other = Don Kissick (Lib)." }, { "race_id": "OK-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Oklahoma", "state_abbr": "OK", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Cyndi Munson", "rep_candidate": "Mike Mazzei", "dem_pct": "45.86", "rep_pct": "51.99", "other_pct": "2.15", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.26", "margin_prev": "-13.99", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-34.96", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "7.73", "swing_vs_pres2024": "28.7", "local_residual": "13.84", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Likely R", "cook_rating": "Likely R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "27.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "60.8", "pct_urban": "64.6", "median_household_income": "62138.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:30 PM EST; >95% reported. Other incl. Robert Brooks (I) 1.04. No general-election polls on Wikipedia." }, { "race_id": "OR-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Oregon", "state_abbr": "OR", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Tina Kotek", "rep_candidate": "Christine Drazan", "dem_pct": "51.85", "rep_pct": "45.5", "other_pct": "2.65", "pct_reported": "71", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "6.52", "margin_prev": "3.75", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "14.85", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "2.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-8.33", "local_residual": "-23.19", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Lean D", "cook_rating": "Lean D", "sabato_rating": "Likely D", "inside_elections_rating": "Lean D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "35.5", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "71.7", "pct_urban": "80.5", "median_household_income": "80160.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 11:08 PM EST. Other = Brett Smith (Pacific Green). No aggregate; POS (R) Jun 22-24 Kotek 44 / Drazan 48. Ratings from Wikipedia overview Sep 17." }, { "race_id": "PA-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Pennsylvania", "state_abbr": "PA", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Josh Shapiro", "rep_candidate": "Stacy Garrity", "dem_pct": "60.23", "rep_pct": "38.47", "other_pct": "1.3", "pct_reported": "85", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.05", "margin_prev": "15.07", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-1.72", "margin_poll": "25.63", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Oct 22 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "6.98", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.77", "local_residual": "8.91", "poll_error": "-3.59", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "33.8", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "73.5", "pct_urban": "76.5", "median_household_income": "73824.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:17 PM EST. Other = Kenneth Krawchuk (Lib)." }, { "race_id": "RI-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Rhode Island", "state_abbr": "RI", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Helena Foulkes", "rep_candidate": "Aaron Guckian", "dem_pct": "57.67", "rep_pct": "13.26", "other_pct": "29.07", "pct_reported": "89", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "19.63", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "14.08", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid D", "cook_rating": "Solid D", "sabato_rating": "Safe D", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid D", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "36.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "68.7", "pct_urban": "91.1", "median_household_income": "84972.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 8:42 PM EST. Independent Ken Block 28.03 finished second ahead of the Republican. Incumbent McKee (D) lost primary. No aggregate; Emerson Aug 21-22 Foulkes 45 / Block 21 / Guckian 18." }, { "race_id": "SC-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "South Carolina", "state_abbr": "SC", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Jermaine Johnson", "rep_candidate": "Alan Wilson", "dem_pct": "47.14", "rep_pct": "51.62", "other_pct": "1.24", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.54", "margin_prev": "-17.61", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-18.05", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "13.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.52", "local_residual": "-1.34", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.6", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "62.1", "pct_urban": "67.9", "median_household_income": "67804.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 9:50 PM EST; >95% reported. Other incl. Michael Addison (United Citizens). No aggregate; Hart (D) Aug 12-15 Johnson 42 / Wilson 50." }, { "race_id": "SD-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "South Dakota", "state_abbr": "SD", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Dan Ahlers", "rep_candidate": "Larry Rhoden", "dem_pct": "36.31", "rep_pct": "63.69", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.38", "margin_prev": "-27.57", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-29.92", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "0.19", "swing_vs_pres2024": "2.54", "local_residual": "-12.32", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "30.4", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "79.6", "pct_urban": "57.2", "median_household_income": "71810.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:01 PM EST; >95% reported. Rhoden succeeded Noem in 2025, running for full term. No general-election polls." }, { "race_id": "TN-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Tennessee", "state_abbr": "TN", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Jerri Green", "rep_candidate": "Marsha Blackburn", "dem_pct": "43.04", "rep_pct": "45.62", "other_pct": "11.34", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.91", "margin_prev": "-32.72", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-30.09", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "29.81", "swing_vs_pres2024": "27.18", "local_residual": "12.32", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "70.9", "pct_urban": "66.2", "median_household_income": "67631.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 12:35 AM EST; >95% reported. Other incl. David Hatley (I) 9.32. No aggregate; TargetSmart Sep 9-12 Green 36 / Blackburn 45." }, { "race_id": "TX-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Texas", "state_abbr": "TX", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Gina Hinojosa", "rep_candidate": "Greg Abbott", "dem_pct": "52.92", "rep_pct": "45.53", "other_pct": "1.55", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.51", "margin_prev": "-11.04", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-13.79", "margin_poll": "-3.2", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/DDHQ/FiftyPlusOne/RaceToTheWH/RCP/Silver Bulletin), Sep 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "18.55", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.3", "local_residual": "6.44", "poll_error": "10.7", "rating": "Likely R", "cook_rating": "Likely R", "sabato_rating": "Likely R", "inside_elections_rating": "Likely R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "32.3", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "39.8", "pct_urban": "83.7", "median_household_income": "75780.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 12:00 AM EST; >95% reported. D FLIP confirmed; incumbent Abbott defeated. Other = Pat Dixon (Lib)." }, { "race_id": "VT-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Vermont", "state_abbr": "VT", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Amanda Janoo", "rep_candidate": "Phil Scott", "dem_pct": "45.91", "rep_pct": "52.48", "other_pct": "1.61", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.68", "margin_prev": "-54.2", "prev_year": "2024", "margin_pres2024": "32.78", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "47.52", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-39.46", "local_residual": "-54.32", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "41.7", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "89.1", "pct_urban": "35.1", "median_household_income": "81211.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 4 12:09 AM EST; >95% reported. Other = Brian Judd (I) 0.84 + unlisted. No aggregate; UNH Sep 17-21 Janoo 49 / Scott 43. 2-year term; prev = 2024." }, { "race_id": "WI-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Wisconsin", "state_abbr": "WI", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "David Crowley", "rep_candidate": "Tom Tiffany", "dem_pct": "54.08", "rep_pct": "45.92", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "92", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "incumbent_party": "D", "flip": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.16", "margin_prev": "3.43", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-0.92", "margin_poll": "3.87", "poll_avg_source": "Wikipedia avg of aggregators (270toWin/RaceToTheWH/RCP), Aug 21 2026", "swing_vs_prev": "4.73", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.08", "local_residual": "-5.78", "poll_error": "4.29", "rating": "Toss-up", "cook_rating": "Tossup", "sabato_rating": "Lean D", "inside_elections_rating": "Tossup", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "32.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "78.6", "pct_urban": "67.1", "median_household_income": "74631.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:20 PM EST. Incumbent Evers (D) retired." }, { "race_id": "WY-GOV", "office": "Governor", "state": "Wyoming", "state_abbr": "WY", "special": "", "dem_candidate": "Kenneth Casner", "rep_candidate": "Eric Barlow", "dem_pct": "14.66", "rep_pct": "68.56", "other_pct": "16.78", "pct_reported": "95", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "tie", "incumbent_party": "R", "flip": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_prev": "-64.85", "prev_year": "2022", "margin_pres2024": "-47.02", "margin_poll": "", "poll_avg_source": "", "swing_vs_prev": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "poll_error": "", "rating": "Solid R", "cook_rating": "Solid R", "sabato_rating": "Safe R", "inside_elections_rating": "Solid R", "pct_bachelors_or_higher": "29.0", "pct_white_nonhispanic": "81.4", "pct_urban": "62.0", "median_household_income": "72415.0", "notes": "DDHQ call Nov 3 10:58 PM EST; >95% reported. Other = Rebecca Bextel (Constitution) 16.78, who finished ahead of the Democrat. No polls." } ], "house_races": [ { "district_id": "AK-AL", "state_abbr": "AK", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Eric Hafner", "rep_candidate": "Nick Begich", "dem_pct": "7.19", "rep_pct": "50.0", "other_pct": "42.81", "pct_reported": "", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "none", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-1.04", "margin_pres2024": "-13.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "30.7", "pct_white": "57.5", "urban_index": "8.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "88121.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nick Begich" }, { "district_id": "AL-01", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Clyde Jones", "rep_candidate": "Jerry Carl", "dem_pct": "40.93", "rep_pct": "59.07", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-36.35", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.21", "local_residual": "3.86", "pct_bachelors": "25.9", "pct_white": "63.4", "urban_index": "10.11", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "58781.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "AL-02", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Shomari Figures", "rep_candidate": "Rhett Marques", "dem_pct": "53.75", "rep_pct": "46.25", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-14.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.96", "local_residual": "7.61", "pct_bachelors": "25.1", "pct_white": "59.4", "urban_index": "9.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "57561.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Shomari Figures" }, { "district_id": "AL-03", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Lee McInnis", "rep_candidate": "Mike Rogers", "dem_pct": "36.05", "rep_pct": "63.95", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.9", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-47.07", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.17", "local_residual": "4.82", "pct_bachelors": "22.4", "pct_white": "65.9", "urban_index": "9.46", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "54047.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Rogers" }, { "district_id": "AL-04", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Amanda Pusczek", "rep_candidate": "Robert Aderholt", "dem_pct": "25.1", "rep_pct": "74.9", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-49.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-50.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-66.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.12", "local_residual": "2.77", "pct_bachelors": "18.5", "pct_white": "79.9", "urban_index": "9.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "54960.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Robert Aderholt" }, { "district_id": "AL-05", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Andrew Sneed", "rep_candidate": "Dale Strong", "dem_pct": "46.76", "rep_pct": "53.24", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-29.5", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.02", "local_residual": "8.67", "pct_bachelors": "35.7", "pct_white": "68.4", "urban_index": "10.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "73698.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Dale Strong" }, { "district_id": "AL-06", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Maurice Mercer", "rep_candidate": "Gary Palmer", "dem_pct": "42.53", "rep_pct": "57.47", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-14.94", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-35.01", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.07", "local_residual": "5.72", "pct_bachelors": "38.8", "pct_white": "68.5", "urban_index": "10.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "78796.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Gary Palmer" }, { "district_id": "AL-07", "state_abbr": "AL", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Terri Sewell", "rep_candidate": "Ammie Akin", "dem_pct": "69.4", "rep_pct": "30.6", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "17.94", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.86", "local_residual": "6.51", "pct_bachelors": "23.9", "pct_white": "36.3", "urban_index": "10.25", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "45784.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Terri Sewell" }, { "district_id": "AR-01", "state_abbr": "AR", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Terri Green", "rep_candidate": "Rick Crawford", "dem_pct": "30.97", "rep_pct": "65.45", "other_pct": "3.58", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-35.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-50.45", "margin_pres2024": "-46.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.69", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.41", "local_residual": "-3.94", "pct_bachelors": "17.6", "pct_white": "73.3", "urban_index": "8.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "50233.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rick Crawford" }, { "district_id": "AR-02", "state_abbr": "AR", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Chris Jones", "rep_candidate": "French Hill", "dem_pct": "49.12", "rep_pct": "50.88", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-17.86", "margin_pres2024": "-15.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.1", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.15", "local_residual": "-0.19", "pct_bachelors": "32.5", "pct_white": "66.3", "urban_index": "10.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "60134.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "French Hill" }, { "district_id": "AR-03", "state_abbr": "AR", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Robb Ryerse", "rep_candidate": "Steve Womack", "dem_pct": "41.48", "rep_pct": "54.89", "other_pct": "3.63", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-13.92", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-13.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-33.54", "margin_pres2024": "-25.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.62", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.67", "local_residual": "-2.67", "pct_bachelors": "31.1", "pct_white": "67.7", "urban_index": "10.41", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "66414.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Steve Womack" }, { "district_id": "AR-04", "state_abbr": "AR", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "James Russell", "rep_candidate": "Bruce Westerman", "dem_pct": "34.51", "rep_pct": "65.49", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-30.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-45.82", "margin_pres2024": "-40.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.84", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.68", "local_residual": "-4.66", "pct_bachelors": "18.0", "pct_white": "66.8", "urban_index": "8.74", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "48035.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bruce Westerman" }, { "district_id": "AZ-01", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Amish Shah", "rep_candidate": "Jay Feely", "dem_pct": "54.92", "rep_pct": "43.22", "other_pct": "1.86", "pct_reported": "76.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "11.92", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-3.81", "margin_pres2024": "-3.14", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.73", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.06", "local_residual": "0.71", "pct_bachelors": "50.6", "pct_white": "69.9", "urban_index": "12.06", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91562.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "AZ-02", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jonathan Nez", "rep_candidate": "Eli Crane", "dem_pct": "49.15", "rep_pct": "49.12", "other_pct": "1.73", "pct_reported": "79.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.03", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.1", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-8.85", "margin_pres2024": "-15.12", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.88", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.15", "local_residual": "0.81", "pct_bachelors": "25.0", "pct_white": "55.3", "urban_index": "8.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "62015.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Eli Crane" }, { "district_id": "AZ-03", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Yassamin Ansari", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "88.32", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "11.68", "pct_reported": "53.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "82.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "45.5", "margin_pres2024": "40.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "18.0", "pct_white": "19.6", "urban_index": "12.68", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "63913.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Yassamin Ansari" }, { "district_id": "AZ-04", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Greg Stanton", "rep_candidate": "Zuhdi Jasser", "dem_pct": "62.38", "rep_pct": "35.44", "other_pct": "2.18", "pct_reported": "76.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.54", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "7.42", "margin_pres2024": "6.77", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.12", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.77", "local_residual": "6.43", "pct_bachelors": "37.2", "pct_white": "55.2", "urban_index": "12.56", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "79108.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Greg Stanton" }, { "district_id": "AZ-05", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Elizabeth Lee", "rep_candidate": "Mark Lamb", "dem_pct": "48.88", "rep_pct": "51.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-20.78", "margin_pres2024": "-20.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.54", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.96", "local_residual": "3.61", "pct_bachelors": "39.7", "pct_white": "67.1", "urban_index": "12.1", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "101489.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "AZ-06", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Joanna Mendoza", "rep_candidate": "Juan Ciscomani", "dem_pct": "57.47", "rep_pct": "40.62", "other_pct": "1.91", "pct_reported": "72.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "17.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-2.58", "margin_pres2024": "-0.76", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.76", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.94", "local_residual": "3.59", "pct_bachelors": "38.1", "pct_white": "63.1", "urban_index": "10.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "71152.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Juan Ciscomani" }, { "district_id": "AZ-07", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Adelita Grijalva", "rep_candidate": "Daniel Butierez", "dem_pct": "75.25", "rep_pct": "24.75", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "39.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "50.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "43.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "26.89", "margin_pres2024": "22.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "23.61", "swing_vs_pres2024": "28.11", "local_residual": "13.76", "pct_bachelors": "20.9", "pct_white": "28.5", "urban_index": "11.17", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "52555.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Adelita Grijalva" }, { "district_id": "AZ-08", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Bernadette Greene-Placentia", "rep_candidate": "Abraham Hamadeh", "dem_pct": "48.88", "rep_pct": "51.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-13.01", "margin_pres2024": "-16.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.24", "local_residual": "-0.1", "pct_bachelors": "31.5", "pct_white": "64.3", "urban_index": "12.34", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "79042.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Abraham Hamadeh" }, { "district_id": "AZ-09", "state_abbr": "AZ", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Danielle Sterbinsky", "rep_candidate": "Paul Gosar", "dem_pct": "42.18", "rep_pct": "57.82", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "74.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-15.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-30.6", "margin_pres2024": "-31.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.7", "local_residual": "1.36", "pct_bachelors": "21.8", "pct_white": "57.5", "urban_index": "10.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "73310.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Paul Gosar" }, { "district_id": "CA-01", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Mike McGuire", "rep_candidate": "James Gallagher", "dem_pct": "57.03", "rep_pct": "42.97", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "55.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "12.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.43", "local_residual": "-12.92", "pct_bachelors": "22.7", "pct_white": "61.9", "urban_index": "9.85", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64471.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "James Gallagher" }, { "district_id": "CA-02", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jared Huffman", "rep_candidate": "Robin Littau", "dem_pct": "66.93", "rep_pct": "33.07", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "50.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "33.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "34.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "25.44", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.42", "local_residual": "-5.93", "pct_bachelors": "42.3", "pct_white": "65.1", "urban_index": "10.21", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "92721.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jared Huffman" }, { "district_id": "CA-03", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Ami Bera", "rep_candidate": "Robb Tucker", "dem_pct": "57.06", "rep_pct": "42.94", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "59.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "10.52", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.6", "local_residual": "-10.75", "pct_bachelors": "40.2", "pct_white": "69.4", "urban_index": "10.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "98689.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Ami Bera" }, { "district_id": "CA-04", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Eric Jones", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "51.52", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "48.48", "pct_reported": "44.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "14.95", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "35.4", "pct_white": "51.6", "urban_index": "10.88", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "87319.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Thompson" }, { "district_id": "CA-05", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Michael Masuda", "rep_candidate": "Tom McClintock", "dem_pct": "43.79", "rep_pct": "56.21", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "73.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.42", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.82", "local_residual": "-5.53", "pct_bachelors": "30.2", "pct_white": "59.4", "urban_index": "10.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "84734.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Tom McClintock" }, { "district_id": "CA-06", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Richard Pan", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "57.49", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "42.51", "pct_reported": "57.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Likely D", "pvi_2026": "D+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "8.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "29.3", "pct_white": "47.1", "urban_index": "12.56", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "80409.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Kevin Kiley" }, { "district_id": "CA-07", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Doris Matsui", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "57.38", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "42.62", "pct_reported": "49.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "13.25", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "33.4", "pct_white": "31.3", "urban_index": "12.38", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "85158.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Doris Matsui" }, { "district_id": "CA-08", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "John Garamendi", "rep_candidate": "Rudy Recile", "dem_pct": "72.34", "rep_pct": "27.66", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "66.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "44.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "45.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "35.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.52", "local_residual": "-4.83", "pct_bachelors": "29.8", "pct_white": "23.9", "urban_index": "11.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91501.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "John Garamendi" }, { "district_id": "CA-09", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Josh Harder", "rep_candidate": "John McBride", "dem_pct": "65.8", "rep_pct": "34.2", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "59.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "11.79", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.81", "local_residual": "5.46", "pct_bachelors": "20.4", "pct_white": "28.7", "urban_index": "11.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "86062.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Josh Harder" }, { "district_id": "CA-10", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Mark DeSaulnier", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Frese", "dem_pct": "69.06", "rep_pct": "30.94", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "34.71", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.41", "local_residual": "-10.93", "pct_bachelors": "54.8", "pct_white": "47.7", "urban_index": "12.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "143122.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mark DeSaulnier" }, { "district_id": "CA-11", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Scott Wiener", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "55.42", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "44.58", "pct_reported": "56.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "70.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "64.0", "pct_white": "43.2", "urban_index": "13.56", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "139300.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CA-12", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Lateefah Simon", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "79.75", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "20.25", "pct_reported": "57.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "77.64", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "53.5", "pct_white": "32.8", "urban_index": "13.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "100136.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Lateefah Simon" }, { "district_id": "CA-13", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Adam Gray", "rep_candidate": "Kevin Lincoln", "dem_pct": "61.32", "rep_pct": "38.68", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "62.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "0.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.25", "local_residual": "7.9", "pct_bachelors": "13.1", "pct_white": "22.1", "urban_index": "10.57", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "67465.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Adam Gray" }, { "district_id": "CA-14", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Aisha Wahab", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "56.53", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "43.47", "pct_reported": "55.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "13.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "36.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "46.3", "pct_white": "25.6", "urban_index": "12.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "135760.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Aisha Wahab" }, { "district_id": "CA-15", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Kevin Mullin", "rep_candidate": "Charles Hoelter", "dem_pct": "77.38", "rep_pct": "22.62", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "53.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "54.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "55.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "49.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.13", "local_residual": "-9.22", "pct_bachelors": "47.9", "pct_white": "28.5", "urban_index": "12.74", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "135162.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Kevin Mullin" }, { "district_id": "CA-16", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "Sam Liccardo", "rep_candidate": "Peter Soulé", "dem_pct": "75.89", "rep_pct": "24.11", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "59.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "51.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "52.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "49.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.89", "local_residual": "-12.46", "pct_bachelors": "62.3", "pct_white": "43.4", "urban_index": "12.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "160623.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Sam Liccardo" }, { "district_id": "CA-17", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Ro Khanna", "rep_candidate": "Ritesh Tandon", "dem_pct": "70.52", "rep_pct": "29.48", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "51.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "41.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "40.74", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "0.3", "local_residual": "-14.05", "pct_bachelors": "62.4", "pct_white": "20.9", "urban_index": "12.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "166489.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Ro Khanna" }, { "district_id": "CA-18", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "18", "dem_candidate": "Zoe Lofgren", "rep_candidate": "Shane Lewis", "dem_pct": "71.65", "rep_pct": "28.35", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "51.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "43.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "43.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "29.37", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.93", "local_residual": "-0.42", "pct_bachelors": "23.5", "pct_white": "18.4", "urban_index": "11.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "96509.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Zoe Lofgren" }, { "district_id": "CA-19", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "19", "dem_candidate": "Jimmy Panetta", "rep_candidate": "Peter Verbica", "dem_pct": "71.98", "rep_pct": "28.02", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "65.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "43.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "44.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "35.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.3", "local_residual": "-6.05", "pct_bachelors": "46.4", "pct_white": "48.2", "urban_index": "11.39", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "118453.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jimmy Panetta" }, { "district_id": "CA-20", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "20", "dem_candidate": "Sandra Van Scotter", "rep_candidate": "Vince Fong", "dem_pct": "37.38", "rep_pct": "62.62", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "75.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-25.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-32.98", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.74", "local_residual": "-6.61", "pct_bachelors": "28.4", "pct_white": "49.5", "urban_index": "11.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82983.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Vince Fong" }, { "district_id": "CA-21", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "21", "dem_candidate": "Jim Costa", "rep_candidate": "Kyle Kirkland", "dem_pct": "62.21", "rep_pct": "37.79", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "56.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.42", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "6.13", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.29", "local_residual": "3.94", "pct_bachelors": "16.4", "pct_white": "17.9", "urban_index": "11.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "61213.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jim Costa" }, { "district_id": "CA-22", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "22", "dem_candidate": "Randy Villegas", "rep_candidate": "David Valadao", "dem_pct": "66.41", "rep_pct": "33.59", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "60.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "32.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "33.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-1.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "34.72", "local_residual": "20.37", "pct_bachelors": "9.8", "pct_white": "15.7", "urban_index": "11.15", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "54697.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "David Valadao" }, { "district_id": "CA-23", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "23", "dem_candidate": "Tessa Hodge", "rep_candidate": "Jay Obernolte", "dem_pct": "48.67", "rep_pct": "51.33", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "78.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-19.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.26", "local_residual": "2.92", "pct_bachelors": "20.3", "pct_white": "39.9", "urban_index": "10.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "68322.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jay Obernolte" }, { "district_id": "CA-24", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "24", "dem_candidate": "Salud Carbajal", "rep_candidate": "Bob Smith", "dem_pct": "65.83", "rep_pct": "34.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "61.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "25.74", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.92", "local_residual": "-8.43", "pct_bachelors": "37.8", "pct_white": "49.9", "urban_index": "10.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "91784.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Salud Carbajal" }, { "district_id": "CA-25", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "25", "dem_candidate": "Raul Ruiz", "rep_candidate": "Joe Males", "dem_pct": "64.41", "rep_pct": "35.59", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "63.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "5.94", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.88", "local_residual": "8.53", "pct_bachelors": "16.4", "pct_white": "24.5", "urban_index": "10.86", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "65453.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Raul Ruiz" }, { "district_id": "CA-26", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "26", "dem_candidate": "Jacqui Irwin", "rep_candidate": "Sam Gallucci", "dem_pct": "61.6", "rep_pct": "38.4", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "72.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.2", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "15.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.48", "local_residual": "-6.87", "pct_bachelors": "36.2", "pct_white": "42.3", "urban_index": "11.68", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "107265.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CA-27", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "27", "dem_candidate": "George Whitesides", "rep_candidate": "Jason Gibbs", "dem_pct": "61.7", "rep_pct": "38.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "10.03", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.37", "local_residual": "-0.98", "pct_bachelors": "29.3", "pct_white": "33.8", "urban_index": "11.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "98123.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "George Whitesides" }, { "district_id": "CA-28", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "28", "dem_candidate": "Judy Chu", "rep_candidate": "April Verlato", "dem_pct": "68.37", "rep_pct": "31.63", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "36.74", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "37.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "26.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.58", "local_residual": "-3.76", "pct_bachelors": "46.9", "pct_white": "27.2", "urban_index": "12.96", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "98310.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Judy Chu" }, { "district_id": "CA-29", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "29", "dem_candidate": "Luz Rivas", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "60.18", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "39.82", "pct_reported": "67.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "20.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "34.71", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "23.9", "pct_white": "21.3", "urban_index": "13.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "67175.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Luz Rivas" }, { "district_id": "CA-30", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "30", "dem_candidate": "Laura Friedman", "rep_candidate": "Scott Meyers", "dem_pct": "75.47", "rep_pct": "24.53", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "84.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "50.94", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "51.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "41.44", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.5", "local_residual": "-4.84", "pct_bachelors": "49.5", "pct_white": "55.5", "urban_index": "13.36", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "85046.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Laura Friedman" }, { "district_id": "CA-31", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "31", "dem_candidate": "Gil Cisneros", "rep_candidate": "Eric Ching", "dem_pct": "63.85", "rep_pct": "36.15", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.7", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "12.6", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.1", "local_residual": "0.76", "pct_bachelors": "24.3", "pct_white": "15.0", "urban_index": "12.92", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "82631.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Gil Cisneros" }, { "district_id": "CA-32", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "32", "dem_candidate": "Brad Sherman", "rep_candidate": "Larry Thompson", "dem_pct": "65.8", "rep_pct": "34.2", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "25.75", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.85", "local_residual": "-8.5", "pct_bachelors": "51.0", "pct_white": "52.4", "urban_index": "12.88", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "103213.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Brad Sherman" }, { "district_id": "CA-33", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "33", "dem_candidate": "Pete Aguilar", "rep_candidate": "Stephanie Vargas", "dem_pct": "67.66", "rep_pct": "32.34", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "35.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "10.07", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "25.25", "local_residual": "10.9", "pct_bachelors": "20.5", "pct_white": "17.5", "urban_index": "12.51", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "81830.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Pete Aguilar" }, { "district_id": "CA-34", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "34", "dem_candidate": "Angela Gonzales-Torres", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "58.66", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "41.34", "pct_reported": "70.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "17.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "53.04", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "27.5", "pct_white": "10.9", "urban_index": "13.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "58845.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jimmy Gomez" }, { "district_id": "CA-35", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "35", "dem_candidate": "Norma Torres", "rep_candidate": "Mike Cargile", "dem_pct": "65.61", "rep_pct": "34.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "66.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "8.04", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.18", "local_residual": "8.83", "pct_bachelors": "21.8", "pct_white": "14.8", "urban_index": "12.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "84692.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Norma Torres" }, { "district_id": "CA-36", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "36", "dem_candidate": "Ted Lieu", "rep_candidate": "Houston Brignano", "dem_pct": "70.66", "rep_pct": "29.34", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "41.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "40.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "0.89", "local_residual": "-13.46", "pct_bachelors": "65.4", "pct_white": "55.4", "urban_index": "13.07", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "121164.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Ted Lieu" }, { "district_id": "CA-37", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "37", "dem_candidate": "Sydney Kamlager-Dove", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "61.98", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "38.02", "pct_reported": "67.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "62.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "27.6", "pct_white": "13.1", "urban_index": "13.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "64565.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Sydney Kamlager-Dove" }, { "district_id": "CA-38", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "38", "dem_candidate": "Hilda Solis", "rep_candidate": "Pedro Casas", "dem_pct": "65.01", "rep_pct": "34.99", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "78.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "30.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "30.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "12.74", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.28", "local_residual": "2.93", "pct_bachelors": "29.2", "pct_white": "13.5", "urban_index": "13.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "90687.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CA-39", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "39", "dem_candidate": "Mark Takano", "rep_candidate": "Steve Manos", "dem_pct": "65.35", "rep_pct": "34.65", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "42.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "30.7", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "9.78", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.92", "local_residual": "6.57", "pct_bachelors": "18.7", "pct_white": "19.5", "urban_index": "12.26", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "84017.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mark Takano" }, { "district_id": "CA-40", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "40", "dem_candidate": "", "rep_candidate": "Ken Calvert", "dem_pct": "", "rep_pct": "54.53", "other_pct": "45.47", "pct_reported": "53.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "Y", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-12.6", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "50.3", "pct_white": "48.5", "urban_index": "12.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "124144.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Ken Calvert; Young Kim" }, { "district_id": "CA-41", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "41", "dem_candidate": "Linda Sanchez", "rep_candidate": "Mitch Clemmons", "dem_pct": "64.95", "rep_pct": "35.05", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "80.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "29.9", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "30.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "14.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.25", "local_residual": "0.9", "pct_bachelors": "29.7", "pct_white": "44.1", "urban_index": "11.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "95306.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Linda Sanchez" }, { "district_id": "CA-42", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "42", "dem_candidate": "Robert Garcia", "rep_candidate": "Brian Burley", "dem_pct": "59.65", "rep_pct": "40.35", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "19.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "13.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.73", "local_residual": "-8.61", "pct_bachelors": "24.9", "pct_white": "18.0", "urban_index": "13.39", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "73006.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Robert Garcia" }, { "district_id": "CA-43", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "43", "dem_candidate": "Maxine Waters", "rep_candidate": "Christian Morales", "dem_pct": "81.25", "rep_pct": "18.75", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "62.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "63.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "50.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.91", "local_residual": "-2.44", "pct_bachelors": "21.1", "pct_white": "6.9", "urban_index": "13.63", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "66509.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Maxine Waters" }, { "district_id": "CA-44", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "44", "dem_candidate": "Nanette Barragan", "rep_candidate": "Genevieve Angel", "dem_pct": "79.81", "rep_pct": "20.19", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "59.62", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "36.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.3", "local_residual": "8.95", "pct_bachelors": "22.5", "pct_white": "12.5", "urban_index": "13.3", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "78725.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Nanette Barragan" }, { "district_id": "CA-45", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "45", "dem_candidate": "Derek Tran", "rep_candidate": "Chuong Vo", "dem_pct": "58.74", "rep_pct": "41.26", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "76.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "17.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+3", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "4.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.42", "local_residual": "-0.92", "pct_bachelors": "37.2", "pct_white": "25.2", "urban_index": "13.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "100891.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Derek Tran" }, { "district_id": "CA-46", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "46", "dem_candidate": "Lou Correa", "rep_candidate": "David Pan", "dem_pct": "68.06", "rep_pct": "31.94", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "62.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "36.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "36.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "16.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.44", "local_residual": "5.09", "pct_bachelors": "22.2", "pct_white": "14.8", "urban_index": "13.41", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "80779.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Lou Correa" }, { "district_id": "CA-47", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "47", "dem_candidate": "Dave Min", "rep_candidate": "Jenny Roux", "dem_pct": "56.74", "rep_pct": "43.26", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "80.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "13.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "10.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.02", "local_residual": "-11.33", "pct_bachelors": "58.2", "pct_white": "50.2", "urban_index": "12.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "117944.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Dave Min" }, { "district_id": "CA-48", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "48", "dem_candidate": "Marni von Wilpert", "rep_candidate": "Jim Desmond", "dem_pct": "59.59", "rep_pct": "40.41", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "70.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "19.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "3.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.7", "local_residual": "1.35", "pct_bachelors": "32.9", "pct_white": "53.3", "urban_index": "11.38", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "105095.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CA-49", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "49", "dem_candidate": "Mike Levin", "rep_candidate": "Armen Kurdian", "dem_pct": "57.49", "rep_pct": "42.51", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "81.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "12.47", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "2.51", "local_residual": "-11.84", "pct_bachelors": "47.1", "pct_white": "57.8", "urban_index": "11.86", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "109380.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Levin" }, { "district_id": "CA-50", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "50", "dem_candidate": "Scott Peters", "rep_candidate": "Steve Cohen", "dem_pct": "61.02", "rep_pct": "38.98", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "76.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "18.84", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.2", "local_residual": "-11.15", "pct_bachelors": "58.6", "pct_white": "54.7", "urban_index": "12.39", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "108881.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Scott Peters" }, { "district_id": "CA-51", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "51", "dem_candidate": "Sara Jacobs", "rep_candidate": "Ricardo Cabrera", "dem_pct": "63.15", "rep_pct": "36.85", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "26.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "18.8", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.5", "local_residual": "-6.84", "pct_bachelors": "44.3", "pct_white": "45.6", "urban_index": "12.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "100357.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Sara Jacobs" }, { "district_id": "CA-52", "state_abbr": "CA", "district": "52", "dem_candidate": "Juan Vargas", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Belle", "dem_pct": "68.93", "rep_pct": "31.07", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "56.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "37.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "18.04", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.82", "local_residual": "5.47", "pct_bachelors": "23.4", "pct_white": "13.3", "urban_index": "12.87", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "79870.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Juan Vargas" }, { "district_id": "CO-01", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Melat Kiros", "rep_candidate": "Christy Peterson", "dem_pct": "78.28", "rep_pct": "13.9", "other_pct": "5.91", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "69.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "64.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "56.02", "margin_pres2024": "57.61", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.82", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.23", "local_residual": "-2.11", "pct_bachelors": "54.3", "pct_white": "54.4", "urban_index": "12.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "87684.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CO-02", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Joe Neguse", "rep_candidate": "Kelley Dennison", "dem_pct": "74.92", "rep_pct": "23.45", "other_pct": "1.63", "pct_reported": "75.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "52.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "52.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "40.51", "margin_pres2024": "40.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.81", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.4", "local_residual": "-2.95", "pct_bachelors": "57.9", "pct_white": "76.1", "urban_index": "10.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "94059.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Joe Neguse" }, { "district_id": "CO-03", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Dwayne Romero", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Hurd", "dem_pct": "48.23", "rep_pct": "48.63", "other_pct": "1.57", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.41", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.4", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-5.15", "margin_pres2024": "-9.98", "swing_vs_house2024": "4.74", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.57", "local_residual": "-4.78", "pct_bachelors": "31.6", "pct_white": "66.7", "urban_index": "9.12", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "67311.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jeff Hurd" }, { "district_id": "CO-04", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Eileen Laubacher", "rep_candidate": "Lauren Boebert", "dem_pct": "49.15", "rep_pct": "47.73", "other_pct": "3.12", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "1.47", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-12.12", "margin_pres2024": "-18.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.59", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.19", "local_residual": "5.84", "pct_bachelors": "46.3", "pct_white": "75.8", "urban_index": "10.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "108087.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lauren Boebert" }, { "district_id": "CO-05", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Jessica Killin", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Crank", "dem_pct": "51.6", "rep_pct": "45.32", "other_pct": "1.61", "pct_reported": "75.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "6.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-14.44", "margin_pres2024": "-9.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.91", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.82", "local_residual": "1.48", "pct_bachelors": "40.3", "pct_white": "65.6", "urban_index": "11.64", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "82432.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jeff Crank" }, { "district_id": "CO-06", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Jason Crow", "rep_candidate": "Jason Clark", "dem_pct": "65.99", "rep_pct": "31.45", "other_pct": "1.32", "pct_reported": "70.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "35.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "21.06", "margin_pres2024": "20.36", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.38", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.09", "local_residual": "0.74", "pct_bachelors": "43.9", "pct_white": "55.8", "urban_index": "12.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "91725.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jason Crow" }, { "district_id": "CO-07", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Brittany Pettersen", "rep_candidate": "Tim Bennett", "dem_pct": "60.79", "rep_pct": "36.39", "other_pct": "1.1", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "25.11", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "14.7", "margin_pres2024": "15.42", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.41", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.69", "local_residual": "-4.66", "pct_bachelors": "46.7", "pct_white": "74.9", "urban_index": "11.49", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "97203.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brittany Pettersen" }, { "district_id": "CO-08", "state_abbr": "CO", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Manny Rutinel", "rep_candidate": "Gabe Evans", "dem_pct": "55.47", "rep_pct": "40.82", "other_pct": "3.72", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.21", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-0.75", "margin_pres2024": "-1.88", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.09", "local_residual": "2.75", "pct_bachelors": "27.9", "pct_white": "51.7", "urban_index": "11.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "92047.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Gabe Evans" }, { "district_id": "CT-01", "state_abbr": "CT", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Luke Bronin", "rep_candidate": "Amy Chai", "dem_pct": "64.85", "rep_pct": "33.49", "other_pct": "1.67", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.89", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "28.9", "margin_pres2024": "23.27", "swing_vs_house2024": "2.99", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.62", "local_residual": "-5.72", "pct_bachelors": "38.4", "pct_white": "57.0", "urban_index": "11.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "80371.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "CT-02", "state_abbr": "CT", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Joe Courtney", "rep_candidate": "George Austin", "dem_pct": "60.86", "rep_pct": "39.14", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "81.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "16.03", "margin_pres2024": "7.86", "swing_vs_house2024": "5.69", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.86", "local_residual": "-0.49", "pct_bachelors": "38.5", "pct_white": "78.0", "urban_index": "10.39", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "88894.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Joe Courtney" }, { "district_id": "CT-03", "state_abbr": "CT", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Rosa DeLauro", "rep_candidate": "Christopher Lancia", "dem_pct": "60.21", "rep_pct": "36.55", "other_pct": "3.24", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "17.81", "margin_pres2024": "14.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.65", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.12", "local_residual": "-4.23", "pct_bachelors": "39.3", "pct_white": "60.7", "urban_index": "11.8", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "86205.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rosa DeLauro" }, { "district_id": "CT-04", "state_abbr": "CT", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jim Himes", "rep_candidate": "Michael Goldstein", "dem_pct": "65.47", "rep_pct": "32.63", "other_pct": "1.9", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "33.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "33.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "24.11", "margin_pres2024": "23.73", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.37", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.75", "local_residual": "-4.6", "pct_bachelors": "53.0", "pct_white": "56.9", "urban_index": "11.89", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "106972.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jim Himes" }, { "district_id": "CT-05", "state_abbr": "CT", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Jahana Hayes", "rep_candidate": "Chris Shea", "dem_pct": "57.98", "rep_pct": "42.02", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "6.82", "margin_pres2024": "5.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.28", "local_residual": "-4.07", "pct_bachelors": "38.0", "pct_white": "63.3", "urban_index": "11.22", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "87715.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jahana Hayes" }, { "district_id": "DE-AL", "state_abbr": "DE", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Sarah McBride", "rep_candidate": "Joseph Arminio", "dem_pct": "64.34", "rep_pct": "35.66", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "15.72", "margin_pres2024": "14.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.72", "local_residual": "-0.63", "pct_bachelors": "34.5", "pct_white": "58.6", "urban_index": "11.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82174.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sarah McBride" }, { "district_id": "FL-01", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Gay Valimont", "rep_candidate": "Jimmy Patronis", "dem_pct": "35.61", "rep_pct": "62.56", "other_pct": "1.83", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-37.58", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.13", "local_residual": "-4.22", "pct_bachelors": "30.5", "pct_white": "69.4", "urban_index": "10.49", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "71302.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jimmy Patronis" }, { "district_id": "FL-02", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Amanda Green", "rep_candidate": "Austin Rogers", "dem_pct": "47.87", "rep_pct": "52.13", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.26", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-18.18", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.92", "local_residual": "-0.43", "pct_bachelors": "29.6", "pct_white": "63.3", "urban_index": "9.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "57516.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-03", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Seth Harp", "rep_candidate": "Kat Cammack", "dem_pct": "42.99", "rep_pct": "55.15", "other_pct": "1.87", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.39", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.93", "local_residual": "-5.42", "pct_bachelors": "27.6", "pct_white": "65.0", "urban_index": "9.86", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "56286.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Kat Cammack" }, { "district_id": "FL-04", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "LaShonda Holloway", "rep_candidate": "Aaron Bean", "dem_pct": "48.11", "rep_pct": "50.22", "other_pct": "1.06", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.15", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-11.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.81", "local_residual": "-4.53", "pct_bachelors": "25.0", "pct_white": "52.1", "urban_index": "11.17", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "70226.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Aaron Bean" }, { "district_id": "FL-05", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Rachel Grage", "rep_candidate": "John Rutherford", "dem_pct": "43.57", "rep_pct": "56.43", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-13.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.69", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.83", "local_residual": "-5.52", "pct_bachelors": "43.8", "pct_white": "64.7", "urban_index": "11.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "84630.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "John Rutherford" }, { "district_id": "FL-06", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Eric Yonce", "rep_candidate": "Randy Fine", "dem_pct": "39.93", "rep_pct": "58.95", "other_pct": "1.12", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-19.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-30.31", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.08", "local_residual": "-3.27", "pct_bachelors": "23.7", "pct_white": "71.3", "urban_index": "10.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "60287.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Randy Fine" }, { "district_id": "FL-07", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Bale Dalton", "rep_candidate": "Ryan Elijah", "dem_pct": "49.2", "rep_pct": "49.73", "other_pct": "1.07", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.54", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.6", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-12.62", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.09", "local_residual": "-2.26", "pct_bachelors": "35.3", "pct_white": "61.5", "urban_index": "11.57", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "75437.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-08", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Jennifer Jenkins", "rep_candidate": "Mike Haridopolos", "dem_pct": "46.83", "rep_pct": "53.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-16.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.05", "local_residual": "-4.29", "pct_bachelors": "32.9", "pct_white": "71.6", "urban_index": "11.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "73344.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Haridopolos" }, { "district_id": "FL-09", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Darren Soto", "rep_candidate": "Dan Green", "dem_pct": "50.26", "rep_pct": "49.74", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.5", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-17.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.45", "local_residual": "4.1", "pct_bachelors": "31.3", "pct_white": "30.0", "urban_index": "11.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "69493.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Darren Soto" }, { "district_id": "FL-10", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Maxwell Frost", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "0.0", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "0.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "none", "margin_ddhq": "", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "24.29", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "35.7", "pct_white": "35.5", "urban_index": "12.4", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "64575.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Maxwell Frost" }, { "district_id": "FL-11", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "James Pericola", "rep_candidate": "Joe Strada", "dem_pct": "45.98", "rep_pct": "52.93", "other_pct": "1.08", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.03", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-15.84", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.81", "local_residual": "-5.53", "pct_bachelors": "33.5", "pct_white": "59.4", "urban_index": "11.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "78966.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-12", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Kimberly Overman", "rep_candidate": "Gus Bilirakis", "dem_pct": "45.94", "rep_pct": "52.74", "other_pct": "1.32", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.89", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-15.55", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.66", "local_residual": "-5.68", "pct_bachelors": "23.0", "pct_white": "75.3", "urban_index": "10.87", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "59804.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Gus Bilirakis" }, { "district_id": "FL-13", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Leela Gray", "rep_candidate": "Anna Paulina Luna", "dem_pct": "48.68", "rep_pct": "49.48", "other_pct": "1.84", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.81", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.8", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-13.45", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.64", "local_residual": "-1.71", "pct_bachelors": "33.4", "pct_white": "74.0", "urban_index": "12.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "65785.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Anna Paulina Luna" }, { "district_id": "FL-14", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Kathy Castor", "rep_candidate": "Mike Beltran", "dem_pct": "51.21", "rep_pct": "45.88", "other_pct": "2.91", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.49", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "5.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.62", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.11", "local_residual": "1.76", "pct_bachelors": "39.4", "pct_white": "46.4", "urban_index": "12.16", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "70955.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Kathy Castor" }, { "district_id": "FL-15", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Robert People", "rep_candidate": "Laurel Lee", "dem_pct": "45.7", "rep_pct": "54.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-8.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-20.09", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.49", "local_residual": "-2.85", "pct_bachelors": "31.9", "pct_white": "51.1", "urban_index": "11.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "67704.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Laurel Lee" }, { "district_id": "FL-16", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "Kelly Kirschner", "rep_candidate": "Sydney Gruters", "dem_pct": "46.96", "rep_pct": "51.21", "other_pct": "1.83", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.33", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-13.82", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.49", "local_residual": "-4.86", "pct_bachelors": "33.5", "pct_white": "59.8", "urban_index": "11.58", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "79125.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-17", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Matthew Montavon", "rep_candidate": "Greg Steube", "dem_pct": "40.14", "rep_pct": "58.46", "other_pct": "1.4", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.66", "local_residual": "-10.69", "pct_bachelors": "31.4", "pct_white": "75.5", "urban_index": "11.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "70558.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Greg Steube" }, { "district_id": "FL-18", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "18", "dem_candidate": "Curtis Gibson", "rep_candidate": "Scott Franklin", "dem_pct": "46.68", "rep_pct": "50.35", "other_pct": "2.97", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-17.11", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.33", "local_residual": "-1.02", "pct_bachelors": "18.8", "pct_white": "55.3", "urban_index": "10.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "57810.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Scott Franklin" }, { "district_id": "FL-19", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "19", "dem_candidate": "Victor Arias", "rep_candidate": "Jim Schwartzel", "dem_pct": "37.64", "rep_pct": "61.13", "other_pct": "1.23", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-23.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-30.41", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.63", "local_residual": "-7.72", "pct_bachelors": "36.3", "pct_white": "69.7", "urban_index": "11.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "76223.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-20", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "20", "dem_candidate": "Debbie Wasserman Schultz", "rep_candidate": "Brent Andersen", "dem_pct": "74.36", "rep_pct": "21.74", "other_pct": "3.91", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "54.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "53.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "37.5", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.26", "local_residual": "2.91", "pct_bachelors": "24.7", "pct_white": "20.6", "urban_index": "12.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "57237.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Debbie Wasserman Schultz" }, { "district_id": "FL-21", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "21", "dem_candidate": "James Martin", "rep_candidate": "Brian Mast", "dem_pct": "44.75", "rep_pct": "53.95", "other_pct": "1.31", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-16.41", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.09", "local_residual": "-7.26", "pct_bachelors": "34.8", "pct_white": "63.9", "urban_index": "11.32", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "76355.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Brian Mast" }, { "district_id": "FL-22", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "22", "dem_candidate": "Pia Dandiya", "rep_candidate": "Casey Askar", "dem_pct": "51.89", "rep_pct": "48.11", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "3.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.36", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.14", "local_residual": "-0.2", "pct_bachelors": "36.1", "pct_white": "50.7", "urban_index": "12.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "73404.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-23", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "23", "dem_candidate": "Lois Frankel", "rep_candidate": "Deborah Adeimy", "dem_pct": "65.65", "rep_pct": "34.35", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "13.86", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.44", "local_residual": "3.1", "pct_bachelors": "44.0", "pct_white": "55.2", "urban_index": "12.54", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "80179.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Lois Frankel" }, { "district_id": "FL-24", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "24", "dem_candidate": "Oliver Gilbert", "rep_candidate": "Te Brown", "dem_pct": "80.65", "rep_pct": "19.35", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "61.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "61.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "39.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.24", "local_residual": "7.9", "pct_bachelors": "29.7", "pct_white": "17.6", "urban_index": "12.99", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "60388.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "FL-25", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "25", "dem_candidate": "Jared Moskowitz", "rep_candidate": "Scott Singer", "dem_pct": "51.26", "rep_pct": "46.64", "other_pct": "2.1", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "4.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "5.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-9.21", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.93", "local_residual": "-0.41", "pct_bachelors": "39.6", "pct_white": "32.5", "urban_index": "12.59", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "79024.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jared Moskowitz" }, { "district_id": "FL-26", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "26", "dem_candidate": "Nicole Locklin", "rep_candidate": "Mario Diaz-Balart", "dem_pct": "49.1", "rep_pct": "49.87", "other_pct": "1.02", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.8", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-18.54", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.76", "local_residual": "3.42", "pct_bachelors": "28.3", "pct_white": "19.4", "urban_index": "12.36", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "67071.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mario Diaz-Balart" }, { "district_id": "FL-27", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "27", "dem_candidate": "Eliott Rodriguez", "rep_candidate": "Maria Salazar", "dem_pct": "49.77", "rep_pct": "50.23", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.46", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.5", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-14.69", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.23", "local_residual": "-0.11", "pct_bachelors": "41.2", "pct_white": "17.2", "urban_index": "12.86", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "75323.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Maria Salazar" }, { "district_id": "FL-28", "state_abbr": "FL", "district": "28", "dem_candidate": "Phil Ehr", "rep_candidate": "Carlos Gimenez", "dem_pct": "45.64", "rep_pct": "52.9", "other_pct": "1.46", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.37", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-25.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.26", "local_residual": "3.91", "pct_bachelors": "29.3", "pct_white": "15.1", "urban_index": "11.99", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "73429.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Carlos Gimenez" }, { "district_id": "GA-01", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Amanda Hollowell", "rep_candidate": "Jim Kingston", "dem_pct": "48.58", "rep_pct": "51.42", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-23.96", "margin_pres2024": "-15.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.12", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.06", "local_residual": "-1.29", "pct_bachelors": "27.4", "pct_white": "57.6", "urban_index": "9.88", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "63376.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "GA-02", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Sanford Bishop", "rep_candidate": "Matthew Day", "dem_pct": "60.87", "rep_pct": "39.13", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.74", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "12.66", "margin_pres2024": "7.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.09", "local_residual": "-0.26", "pct_bachelors": "20.8", "pct_white": "39.9", "urban_index": "9.92", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "48779.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sanford Bishop" }, { "district_id": "GA-03", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Maura Keller", "rep_candidate": "Brian Jack", "dem_pct": "41.38", "rep_pct": "58.62", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-17.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-17.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-32.62", "margin_pres2024": "-29.88", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.38", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.64", "local_residual": "-1.71", "pct_bachelors": "27.8", "pct_white": "64.4", "urban_index": "10.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "74348.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brian Jack" }, { "district_id": "GA-04", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Hank Johnson", "rep_candidate": "James Duffie", "dem_pct": "82.64", "rep_pct": "17.36", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "65.28", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "65.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "51.16", "margin_pres2024": "53.04", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.12", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.24", "local_residual": "-2.1", "pct_bachelors": "40.9", "pct_white": "25.8", "urban_index": "12.11", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "73742.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Hank Johnson" }, { "district_id": "GA-05", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Nikema Williams", "rep_candidate": "John Salvesen", "dem_pct": "90.19", "rep_pct": "9.81", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "80.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "80.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "71.36", "margin_pres2024": "72.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.02", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.04", "local_residual": "-6.3", "pct_bachelors": "53.6", "pct_white": "35.8", "urban_index": "12.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "80430.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nikema Williams" }, { "district_id": "GA-06", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Lucy McBath", "rep_candidate": "Kevin Martin", "dem_pct": "80.9", "rep_pct": "19.1", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "61.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "62.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "49.36", "margin_pres2024": "50.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.44", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.46", "local_residual": "-2.88", "pct_bachelors": "58.4", "pct_white": "63.7", "urban_index": "11.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "123105.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lucy McBath" }, { "district_id": "GA-07", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Tony Kozycki", "rep_candidate": "Rich McCormick", "dem_pct": "43.81", "rep_pct": "56.19", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-29.7", "margin_pres2024": "-22.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.32", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.92", "local_residual": "-4.43", "pct_bachelors": "40.8", "pct_white": "29.5", "urban_index": "12.16", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "84547.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rich McCormick" }, { "district_id": "GA-08", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Kelly Esti", "rep_candidate": "Austin Scott", "dem_pct": "39.62", "rep_pct": "60.38", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-20.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-37.84", "margin_pres2024": "-30.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.96", "local_residual": "-4.39", "pct_bachelors": "22.5", "pct_white": "57.9", "urban_index": "9.3", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "55822.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Austin Scott" }, { "district_id": "GA-09", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Caitlyn Gegen", "rep_candidate": "Andrew Clyde", "dem_pct": "40.7", "rep_pct": "59.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-38.0", "margin_pres2024": "-34.33", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.4", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.73", "local_residual": "1.38", "pct_bachelors": "30.4", "pct_white": "64.7", "urban_index": "10.38", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "76038.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Andrew Clyde" }, { "district_id": "GA-10", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Pamela Delancy", "rep_candidate": "Houston Gaines", "dem_pct": "46.41", "rep_pct": "53.59", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-26.1", "margin_pres2024": "-20.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.92", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.73", "local_residual": "-0.62", "pct_bachelors": "28.9", "pct_white": "63.6", "urban_index": "10.11", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "73988.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "GA-11", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Chris Harden", "rep_candidate": "John Cowan", "dem_pct": "44.64", "rep_pct": "55.36", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+12", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-34.62", "margin_pres2024": "-23.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "23.9", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.84", "local_residual": "-1.51", "pct_bachelors": "42.1", "pct_white": "61.3", "urban_index": "11.48", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "90472.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "GA-12", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Ceretta Smith", "rep_candidate": "Rick Allen", "dem_pct": "47.9", "rep_pct": "52.1", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.2", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-20.64", "margin_pres2024": "-14.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.44", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.04", "local_residual": "-4.31", "pct_bachelors": "23.4", "pct_white": "52.1", "urban_index": "9.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "56189.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rick Allen" }, { "district_id": "GA-13", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Jasmine Clark", "rep_candidate": "Jonathan Chavez", "dem_pct": "79.83", "rep_pct": "20.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "59.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "43.66", "margin_pres2024": "42.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.0", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.94", "local_residual": "2.59", "pct_bachelors": "30.2", "pct_white": "16.4", "urban_index": "11.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "71993.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "GA-14", "state_abbr": "GA", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Shawn Harris", "rep_candidate": "Clayton Fuller", "dem_pct": "41.22", "rep_pct": "58.78", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-17.56", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-28.74", "margin_pres2024": "-37.02", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.46", "local_residual": "5.11", "pct_bachelors": "22.2", "pct_white": "68.1", "urban_index": "10.33", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "69169.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Clayton Fuller" }, { "district_id": "HI-01", "state_abbr": "HI", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Ed Case", "rep_candidate": "Adriel Lam", "dem_pct": "74.1", "rep_pct": "21.23", "other_pct": "3.35", "pct_reported": "64.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "55.46", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "53.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "43.68", "margin_pres2024": "25.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.78", "swing_vs_pres2024": "30.29", "local_residual": "15.95", "pct_bachelors": "37.9", "pct_white": "14.8", "urban_index": "12.3", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "96086.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ed Case" }, { "district_id": "HI-02", "state_abbr": "HI", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jill Tokuda", "rep_candidate": "Brenton Awa", "dem_pct": "68.61", "rep_pct": "31.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "71.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "37.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "37.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "37.56", "margin_pres2024": "22.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "-0.34", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.16", "local_residual": "0.81", "pct_bachelors": "31.4", "pct_white": "28.4", "urban_index": "10.08", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "89314.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jill Tokuda" }, { "district_id": "IA-01", "state_abbr": "IA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Christina Bohannan", "rep_candidate": "Mariannette Miller-Meeks", "dem_pct": "52.95", "rep_pct": "43.42", "other_pct": "3.64", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "9.89", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-0.19", "margin_pres2024": "-8.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.47", "local_residual": "4.13", "pct_bachelors": "31.5", "pct_white": "83.4", "urban_index": "9.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67381.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mariannette Miller-Meeks" }, { "district_id": "IA-02", "state_abbr": "IA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Lindsay James", "rep_candidate": "Joe Mitchell", "dem_pct": "49.54", "rep_pct": "45.56", "other_pct": "4.9", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "4.19", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-15.78", "margin_pres2024": "-10.13", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.31", "local_residual": "-0.03", "pct_bachelors": "28.3", "pct_white": "85.9", "urban_index": "9.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67862.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IA-03", "state_abbr": "IA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Sarah Garriott", "rep_candidate": "Zach Nunn", "dem_pct": "53.55", "rep_pct": "46.45", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-3.84", "margin_pres2024": "-4.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.94", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.56", "local_residual": "-2.79", "pct_bachelors": "35.4", "pct_white": "78.8", "urban_index": "10.54", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "74960.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Zach Nunn" }, { "district_id": "IA-04", "state_abbr": "IA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Dave Dawson", "rep_candidate": "Chris McGowan", "dem_pct": "40.93", "rep_pct": "59.07", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-34.44", "margin_pres2024": "-31.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.3", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.76", "local_residual": "-0.59", "pct_bachelors": "25.8", "pct_white": "82.6", "urban_index": "9.2", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "68755.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "ID-01", "state_abbr": "ID", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Kaylee Peterson", "rep_candidate": "Russ Fulcher", "dem_pct": "28.61", "rep_pct": "64.47", "other_pct": "6.92", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-38.53", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-36.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-47.23", "margin_pres2024": "-46.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.7", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.68", "local_residual": "-6.67", "pct_bachelors": "28.2", "pct_white": "80.0", "urban_index": "10.01", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "72898.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Russ Fulcher" }, { "district_id": "ID-02", "state_abbr": "ID", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Ellie Gilbreath", "rep_candidate": "Mike Simpson", "dem_pct": "40.33", "rep_pct": "51.69", "other_pct": "7.98", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.35", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-32.91", "margin_pres2024": "-27.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.57", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.22", "local_residual": "0.87", "pct_bachelors": "32.3", "pct_white": "77.7", "urban_index": "10.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "72674.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Simpson" }, { "district_id": "IL-01", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Jonathan Jackson", "rep_candidate": "Christian Maxwell", "dem_pct": "70.26", "rep_pct": "29.74", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "88.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "40.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "31.71", "margin_pres2024": "32.45", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.81", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.07", "local_residual": "-6.28", "pct_bachelors": "31.7", "pct_white": "36.1", "urban_index": "12.4", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "64107.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jonathan Jackson" }, { "district_id": "IL-02", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Donna Miller", "rep_candidate": "Michael Noack", "dem_pct": "72.04", "rep_pct": "27.96", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "44.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "44.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "35.13", "margin_pres2024": "33.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.95", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.51", "local_residual": "-3.84", "pct_bachelors": "23.8", "pct_white": "33.3", "urban_index": "11.29", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "57780.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IL-03", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Delia Ramirez", "rep_candidate": "Angel Oakley", "dem_pct": "75.7", "rep_pct": "24.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "51.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "51.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "34.57", "margin_pres2024": "31.83", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.83", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.57", "local_residual": "5.22", "pct_bachelors": "35.2", "pct_white": "39.1", "urban_index": "13.32", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "78452.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Delia Ramirez" }, { "district_id": "IL-04", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Patty Garcia", "rep_candidate": "Lupe Castillo", "dem_pct": "70.8", "rep_pct": "16.36", "other_pct": "12.84", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "62.46", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "54.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "42.43", "margin_pres2024": "28.76", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.03", "swing_vs_pres2024": "33.7", "local_residual": "19.35", "pct_bachelors": "23.3", "pct_white": "23.4", "urban_index": "13.4", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "69123.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IL-05", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Mike Quigley", "rep_candidate": "Tommy Hanson", "dem_pct": "75.54", "rep_pct": "24.46", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "51.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "51.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "37.94", "margin_pres2024": "37.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.51", "local_residual": "-0.84", "pct_bachelors": "64.4", "pct_white": "71.3", "urban_index": "13.26", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "104191.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Quigley" }, { "district_id": "IL-06", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Sean Casten", "rep_candidate": "Niki Conforti", "dem_pct": "62.48", "rep_pct": "37.52", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.42", "margin_pres2024": "5.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.54", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.39", "local_residual": "5.04", "pct_bachelors": "43.6", "pct_white": "72.1", "urban_index": "12.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "95298.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sean Casten" }, { "district_id": "IL-07", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "La Shawn Ford", "rep_candidate": "Chad Koppie", "dem_pct": "89.0", "rep_pct": "11.0", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "80.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "78.0", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "78.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "66.6", "margin_pres2024": "66.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.4", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.85", "local_residual": "-2.49", "pct_bachelors": "46.1", "pct_white": "29.5", "urban_index": "13.64", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "76365.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IL-08", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Melissa Bean", "rep_candidate": "Jennifer Davis", "dem_pct": "63.76", "rep_pct": "36.24", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "14.12", "margin_pres2024": "7.0", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.4", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.52", "local_residual": "6.17", "pct_bachelors": "39.2", "pct_white": "54.4", "urban_index": "12.24", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91317.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IL-09", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Daniel Biss", "rep_candidate": "John Elleson", "dem_pct": "75.82", "rep_pct": "24.18", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "51.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "52.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "36.78", "margin_pres2024": "36.99", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.86", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.65", "local_residual": "0.31", "pct_bachelors": "54.9", "pct_white": "59.2", "urban_index": "12.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "86692.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "IL-10", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Brad Schneider", "rep_candidate": "Carl Lambrecht", "dem_pct": "69.79", "rep_pct": "30.21", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "39.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "40.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "19.96", "margin_pres2024": "22.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.62", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.24", "local_residual": "2.89", "pct_bachelors": "46.5", "pct_white": "57.9", "urban_index": "11.71", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "98057.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brad Schneider" }, { "district_id": "IL-11", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Bill Foster", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Walter", "dem_pct": "64.44", "rep_pct": "35.56", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "11.19", "margin_pres2024": "11.61", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.69", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.27", "local_residual": "2.93", "pct_bachelors": "44.2", "pct_white": "63.0", "urban_index": "11.6", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "99802.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bill Foster" }, { "district_id": "IL-12", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Julie Fortier", "rep_candidate": "Mike Bost", "dem_pct": "31.4", "rep_pct": "68.6", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-37.2", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-37.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-48.38", "margin_pres2024": "-44.08", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.88", "local_residual": "-7.47", "pct_bachelors": "23.8", "pct_white": "86.9", "urban_index": "8.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "62253.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Bost" }, { "district_id": "IL-13", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Nikki Budzinski", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Wilson", "dem_pct": "61.82", "rep_pct": "38.18", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "16.22", "margin_pres2024": "10.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.42", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.99", "local_residual": "-1.36", "pct_bachelors": "30.8", "pct_white": "64.5", "urban_index": "10.93", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "59843.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nikki Budzinski" }, { "district_id": "IL-14", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Lauren Underwood", "rep_candidate": "James Marter", "dem_pct": "64.18", "rep_pct": "35.82", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.36", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "10.21", "margin_pres2024": "5.27", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.15", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.09", "local_residual": "8.75", "pct_bachelors": "32.3", "pct_white": "58.8", "urban_index": "11.21", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "86174.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lauren Underwood" }, { "district_id": "IL-15", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Jennifer Todd", "rep_candidate": "Mary Miller", "dem_pct": "34.05", "rep_pct": "65.95", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-31.9", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-40.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.53", "local_residual": "-5.81", "pct_bachelors": "25.1", "pct_white": "89.7", "urban_index": "8.88", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "66614.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mary Miller" }, { "district_id": "IL-16", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "Paul Nolley", "rep_candidate": "Darin LaHood", "dem_pct": "41.16", "rep_pct": "58.84", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "88.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-17.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.05", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.37", "local_residual": "-8.97", "pct_bachelors": "30.8", "pct_white": "84.8", "urban_index": "9.6", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "78393.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Darin LaHood" }, { "district_id": "IL-17", "state_abbr": "IL", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Eric Sorensen", "rep_candidate": "Dillan Vancil", "dem_pct": "58.53", "rep_pct": "41.47", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "75.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "17.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "17.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Safe D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.86", "margin_pres2024": "4.82", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.2", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.24", "local_residual": "-2.11", "pct_bachelors": "24.0", "pct_white": "67.5", "urban_index": "10.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "56834.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Eric Sorensen" }, { "district_id": "IN-01", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Frank Mrvan", "rep_candidate": "Barb Regnitz", "dem_pct": "62.8", "rep_pct": "37.2", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "25.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Likely D", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.63", "margin_pres2024": "0.4", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "25.2", "local_residual": "10.86", "pct_bachelors": "25.4", "pct_white": "59.4", "urban_index": "11.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "69580.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Frank Mrvan" }, { "district_id": "IN-02", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jamee Decio", "rep_candidate": "Rudy Yakym", "dem_pct": "45.98", "rep_pct": "51.47", "other_pct": "2.55", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-5.63", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-28.9", "margin_pres2024": "-26.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "23.26", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.29", "local_residual": "6.95", "pct_bachelors": "24.1", "pct_white": "75.9", "urban_index": "10.29", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62487.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rudy Yakym" }, { "district_id": "IN-03", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Kelly Thompson", "rep_candidate": "Marlin Stutzman", "dem_pct": "44.98", "rep_pct": "55.02", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-34.86", "margin_pres2024": "-31.73", "swing_vs_house2024": "24.82", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.69", "local_residual": "7.34", "pct_bachelors": "24.6", "pct_white": "80.5", "urban_index": "10.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "65522.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Marlin Stutzman" }, { "district_id": "IN-04", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Drew Cox", "rep_candidate": "Jim Baird", "dem_pct": "45.59", "rep_pct": "54.41", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-8.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-35.4", "margin_pres2024": "-29.88", "swing_vs_house2024": "26.58", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.06", "local_residual": "6.71", "pct_bachelors": "30.8", "pct_white": "81.4", "urban_index": "9.96", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "72677.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jim Baird" }, { "district_id": "IN-05", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "J.D. Ford", "rep_candidate": "Victoria Spartz", "dem_pct": "51.79", "rep_pct": "48.21", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "3.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-19.64", "margin_pres2024": "-17.13", "swing_vs_house2024": "23.22", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.71", "local_residual": "6.36", "pct_bachelors": "39.3", "pct_white": "81.1", "urban_index": "10.86", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "75915.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Victoria Spartz" }, { "district_id": "IN-06", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Cynthia Wirth", "rep_candidate": "Jefferson Shreve", "dem_pct": "44.89", "rep_pct": "55.11", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-33.71", "margin_pres2024": "-33.11", "swing_vs_house2024": "23.49", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.89", "local_residual": "8.54", "pct_bachelors": "27.4", "pct_white": "81.0", "urban_index": "10.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "69426.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jefferson Shreve" }, { "district_id": "IN-07", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Andre Carson", "rep_candidate": "Patrick McAuley", "dem_pct": "77.1", "rep_pct": "20.26", "other_pct": "2.64", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "58.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "57.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "40.49", "margin_pres2024": "42.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.89", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.23", "local_residual": "1.88", "pct_bachelors": "34.6", "pct_white": "45.3", "urban_index": "12.23", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "59595.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Andre Carson" }, { "district_id": "IN-08", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Mary Allen", "rep_candidate": "Mark Messmer", "dem_pct": "44.8", "rep_pct": "55.2", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-39.53", "margin_pres2024": "-36.49", "swing_vs_house2024": "29.13", "swing_vs_pres2024": "26.09", "local_residual": "11.75", "pct_bachelors": "22.3", "pct_white": "87.7", "urban_index": "9.57", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "61601.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mark Messmer" }, { "district_id": "IN-09", "state_abbr": "IN", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Brad Meyer", "rep_candidate": "Erin Houchin", "dem_pct": "43.49", "rep_pct": "54.06", "other_pct": "2.45", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-32.56", "margin_pres2024": "-30.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.56", "local_residual": "5.21", "pct_bachelors": "26.0", "pct_white": "87.0", "urban_index": "9.74", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67283.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Erin Houchin" }, { "district_id": "KS-01", "state_abbr": "KS", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Lauren Reinhold", "rep_candidate": "Tracey Mann", "dem_pct": "37.68", "rep_pct": "59.61", "other_pct": "2.71", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-22.54", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-38.28", "margin_pres2024": "-31.85", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.74", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.31", "local_residual": "-5.03", "pct_bachelors": "29.4", "pct_white": "74.6", "urban_index": "8.97", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "60646.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tracey Mann" }, { "district_id": "KS-02", "state_abbr": "KS", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Don Coover", "rep_candidate": "Derek Schmidt", "dem_pct": "44.86", "rep_pct": "51.4", "other_pct": "3.74", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.79", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-19.82", "margin_pres2024": "-20.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.02", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.27", "local_residual": "-1.08", "pct_bachelors": "26.9", "pct_white": "69.8", "urban_index": "9.77", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "60983.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Derek Schmidt" }, { "district_id": "KS-03", "state_abbr": "KS", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Sharice Davids", "rep_candidate": "Eric Jenkins", "dem_pct": "59.55", "rep_pct": "38.4", "other_pct": "2.05", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.59", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Safe D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "11.21", "margin_pres2024": "4.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.38", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.42", "local_residual": "3.07", "pct_bachelors": "51.3", "pct_white": "75.0", "urban_index": "11.53", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91626.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sharice Davids" }, { "district_id": "KS-04", "state_abbr": "KS", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Katy Tyndell", "rep_candidate": "Ron Estes", "dem_pct": "43.99", "rep_pct": "53.63", "other_pct": "2.37", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-30.1", "margin_pres2024": "-23.7", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.22", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.82", "local_residual": "-0.53", "pct_bachelors": "30.4", "pct_white": "69.6", "urban_index": "10.61", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "65593.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ron Estes" }, { "district_id": "KY-01", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "John Williams", "rep_candidate": "James Comer", "dem_pct": "32.43", "rep_pct": "67.57", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-35.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-49.44", "margin_pres2024": "-47.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.3", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.77", "local_residual": "-1.57", "pct_bachelors": "20.3", "pct_white": "83.8", "urban_index": "8.87", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "54615.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "James Comer" }, { "district_id": "KY-02", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Megan Wingfield", "rep_candidate": "S. Brett Guthrie", "dem_pct": "35.1", "rep_pct": "62.82", "other_pct": "2.08", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.31", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-46.2", "margin_pres2024": "-41.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.89", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.62", "local_residual": "-0.73", "pct_bachelors": "23.0", "pct_white": "83.5", "urban_index": "9.56", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "61768.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "S. Brett Guthrie" }, { "district_id": "KY-03", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Morgan McGarvey", "rep_candidate": "Maria Rodriguez", "dem_pct": "70.33", "rep_pct": "29.67", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "40.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "23.91", "margin_pres2024": "19.26", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.75", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.4", "local_residual": "7.05", "pct_bachelors": "35.1", "pct_white": "61.9", "urban_index": "12.09", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "63327.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Morgan McGarvey" }, { "district_id": "KY-04", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Melissa Strange", "rep_candidate": "Ed Gallrein", "dem_pct": "40.86", "rep_pct": "54.22", "other_pct": "4.92", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-14.05", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-13.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-36.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.11", "local_residual": "7.76", "pct_bachelors": "30.8", "pct_white": "86.6", "urban_index": "10.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "75907.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "KY-05", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Ned Pillersdorf", "rep_candidate": "Hal Rogers", "dem_pct": "25.52", "rep_pct": "70.98", "other_pct": "2.11", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-47.11", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-46.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-64.67", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.56", "local_residual": "3.21", "pct_bachelors": "15.1", "pct_white": "93.7", "urban_index": "8.77", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "42736.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Hal Rogers" }, { "district_id": "KY-06", "state_abbr": "KY", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Zach Dembo", "rep_candidate": "Ralph Alvarado", "dem_pct": "52.7", "rep_pct": "43.3", "other_pct": "2.55", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "9.79", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-26.08", "margin_pres2024": "-15.31", "swing_vs_house2024": "35.87", "swing_vs_pres2024": "25.1", "local_residual": "10.76", "pct_bachelors": "34.9", "pct_white": "78.5", "urban_index": "10.64", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "62298.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "LA-01", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Lauren Jewett", "rep_candidate": "Steve Scalise", "dem_pct": "33.95", "rep_pct": "60.71", "other_pct": "5.34", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.27", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-38.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.69", "local_residual": "-3.66", "pct_bachelors": "33.1", "pct_white": "67.0", "urban_index": "10.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "69732.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Steve Scalise" }, { "district_id": "LA-02", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Troy Carter", "rep_candidate": "Peter Williams", "dem_pct": "79.91", "rep_pct": "15.12", "other_pct": "4.97", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "68.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "65.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "48.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.84", "local_residual": "5.5", "pct_bachelors": "26.7", "pct_white": "27.1", "urban_index": "11.77", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "48015.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Troy Carter" }, { "district_id": "LA-03", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "John Day", "rep_candidate": "Clay Higgins", "dem_pct": "20.92", "rep_pct": "54.98", "other_pct": "24.1", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "none", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-34.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-36.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "23.5", "pct_white": "64.4", "urban_index": "10.19", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "53406.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Clay Higgins" }, { "district_id": "LA-04", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Conrad Cable", "rep_candidate": "Mike Johnson", "dem_pct": "22.96", "rep_pct": "58.5", "other_pct": "18.54", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-43.63", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-36.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-34.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-8.97", "local_residual": "-23.32", "pct_bachelors": "20.2", "pct_white": "55.7", "urban_index": "9.46", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "48618.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Johnson" }, { "district_id": "LA-05", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Patricia Moore", "rep_candidate": "Gabe Firment", "dem_pct": "17.9", "rep_pct": "17.17", "other_pct": "64.93", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "none", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.7", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-34.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "20.0", "pct_white": "57.9", "urban_index": "9.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "46162.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "LA-06", "state_abbr": "LA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Chauna Banks", "rep_candidate": "Blake Miguez", "dem_pct": "19.42", "rep_pct": "19.17", "other_pct": "61.41", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "none", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "Y", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.3", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-30.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "33.1", "pct_white": "62.4", "urban_index": "10.8", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "70632.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MA-01", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Richard Neal", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "65.26", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "34.74", "pct_reported": "65.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "13.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "31.5", "pct_white": "69.4", "urban_index": "11.06", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "68956.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Richard Neal" }, { "district_id": "MA-02", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jim McGovern", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "100.0", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "100.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "24.29", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "45.2", "pct_white": "70.8", "urban_index": "11.15", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "88327.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jim McGovern" }, { "district_id": "MA-03", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Lori Trahan", "rep_candidate": "Gary Grossi", "dem_pct": "68.61", "rep_pct": "28.48", "other_pct": "2.91", "pct_reported": "58.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "41.33", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "40.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "19.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.94", "local_residual": "7.59", "pct_bachelors": "38.5", "pct_white": "60.7", "urban_index": "11.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91476.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lori Trahan" }, { "district_id": "MA-04", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jake Auchincloss", "rep_candidate": "Thomas Stalcup", "dem_pct": "67.26", "rep_pct": "32.74", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "34.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "20.13", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.39", "local_residual": "0.05", "pct_bachelors": "48.8", "pct_white": "77.9", "urban_index": "11.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "110374.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jake Auchincloss" }, { "district_id": "MA-05", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Katherine Clark", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "0.0", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "none", "margin_ddhq": "", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "46.35", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "60.5", "pct_white": "64.6", "urban_index": "12.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "115167.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Katherine Clark" }, { "district_id": "MA-06", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Dan Koh", "rep_candidate": "Micah Jones", "dem_pct": "63.36", "rep_pct": "36.64", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "26.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "21.08", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.64", "local_residual": "-8.71", "pct_bachelors": "48.9", "pct_white": "76.7", "urban_index": "11.83", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "106226.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MA-07", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Ayanna Pressley", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "0.0", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "none", "margin_ddhq": "", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "65.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "48.3", "pct_white": "38.7", "urban_index": "13.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "81795.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ayanna Pressley" }, { "district_id": "MA-08", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Stephen Lynch", "rep_candidate": "Robert Burke", "dem_pct": "69.79", "rep_pct": "26.5", "other_pct": "3.71", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "44.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "42.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "41.16", "margin_pres2024": "26.98", "swing_vs_house2024": "3.8", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.98", "local_residual": "3.63", "pct_bachelors": "50.5", "pct_white": "66.3", "urban_index": "12.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "103758.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Stephen Lynch" }, { "district_id": "MA-09", "state_abbr": "MA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "William Keating", "rep_candidate": "R. Tyler MacAllister", "dem_pct": "61.61", "rep_pct": "38.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "13.04", "margin_pres2024": "10.95", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.27", "local_residual": "-2.08", "pct_bachelors": "41.0", "pct_white": "83.0", "urban_index": "10.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "94066.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "William Keating" }, { "district_id": "MD-01", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Dan Schwartz", "rep_candidate": "Andy Harris", "dem_pct": "44.16", "rep_pct": "55.84", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-22.77", "margin_pres2024": "-17.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.09", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.62", "local_residual": "-8.72", "pct_bachelors": "33.6", "pct_white": "72.1", "urban_index": "10.12", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "87671.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Andy Harris" }, { "district_id": "MD-02", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "John Olszewski", "rep_candidate": "Dave Wallace", "dem_pct": "61.56", "rep_pct": "38.44", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "84.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "19.08", "margin_pres2024": "18.94", "swing_vs_house2024": "4.04", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.18", "local_residual": "-10.17", "pct_bachelors": "45.2", "pct_white": "59.3", "urban_index": "11.81", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "92468.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "John Olszewski" }, { "district_id": "MD-03", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Sarah Elfreth", "rep_candidate": "Bernard Flowers", "dem_pct": "65.41", "rep_pct": "34.59", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "30.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "22.05", "margin_pres2024": "24.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.34", "local_residual": "-8.01", "pct_bachelors": "51.7", "pct_white": "57.0", "urban_index": "11.81", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "119418.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sarah Elfreth" }, { "district_id": "MD-04", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Glenn Ivey", "rep_candidate": "George McDermott", "dem_pct": "89.1", "rep_pct": "6.36", "other_pct": "4.54", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "86.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "83.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "77.44", "margin_pres2024": "75.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.23", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.01", "local_residual": "-3.33", "pct_bachelors": "32.5", "pct_white": "10.6", "urban_index": "12.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "86941.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Glenn Ivey" }, { "district_id": "MD-05", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Adrian Boafo", "rep_candidate": "Chris Chaffee", "dem_pct": "68.94", "rep_pct": "31.06", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "37.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "35.83", "margin_pres2024": "34.05", "swing_vs_house2024": "2.05", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.83", "local_residual": "-10.52", "pct_bachelors": "40.7", "pct_white": "43.8", "urban_index": "10.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "121284.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MD-06", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "April McClain-Delaney", "rep_candidate": "Robin Ficker", "dem_pct": "56.37", "rep_pct": "40.94", "other_pct": "2.69", "pct_reported": "83.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "6.34", "margin_pres2024": "5.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.51", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.92", "local_residual": "-4.42", "pct_bachelors": "39.6", "pct_white": "60.4", "urban_index": "11.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "96041.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "April McClain-Delaney" }, { "district_id": "MD-07", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Kweisi Mfume", "rep_candidate": "Scott Collier", "dem_pct": "83.43", "rep_pct": "16.57", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "78.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "66.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "67.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "64.77", "margin_pres2024": "60.5", "swing_vs_house2024": "2.09", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.36", "local_residual": "-7.99", "pct_bachelors": "31.3", "pct_white": "29.7", "urban_index": "12.92", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "56870.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Kweisi Mfume" }, { "district_id": "MD-08", "state_abbr": "MD", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Jamie Raskin", "rep_candidate": "Cheryl Riley", "dem_pct": "82.66", "rep_pct": "15.64", "other_pct": "1.7", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "68.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "67.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "57.93", "margin_pres2024": "58.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.25", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.12", "local_residual": "-4.23", "pct_bachelors": "63.1", "pct_white": "44.3", "urban_index": "12.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "123494.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jamie Raskin" }, { "district_id": "ME-01", "state_abbr": "ME", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Chellie Pingree", "rep_candidate": "Ronald Russell", "dem_pct": "65.48", "rep_pct": "33.46", "other_pct": "1.03", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "32.36", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "22.99", "margin_pres2024": "22.08", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.37", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.28", "local_residual": "-4.07", "pct_bachelors": "41.3", "pct_white": "89.4", "urban_index": "9.89", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "80938.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Chellie Pingree" }, { "district_id": "ME-02", "state_abbr": "ME", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Matt Dunlap", "rep_candidate": "Paul LePage", "dem_pct": "49.02", "rep_pct": "49.75", "other_pct": "1.18", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.74", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.3", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "0.16", "margin_pres2024": "-9.23", "swing_vs_house2024": "-0.9", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.49", "local_residual": "-5.85", "pct_bachelors": "26.9", "pct_white": "90.9", "urban_index": "8.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "59676.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MI-01", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Callie Barr", "rep_candidate": "Jack Bergman", "dem_pct": "44.22", "rep_pct": "53.78", "other_pct": "2.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-21.87", "margin_pres2024": "-21.52", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.12", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.77", "local_residual": "-2.58", "pct_bachelors": "26.5", "pct_white": "89.4", "urban_index": "8.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "60877.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jack Bergman" }, { "district_id": "MI-02", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Ben Ambrose", "rep_candidate": "John Moolenaar", "dem_pct": "36.99", "rep_pct": "61.45", "other_pct": "1.56", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-24.85", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-34.55", "margin_pres2024": "-30.53", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.7", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.68", "local_residual": "-8.66", "pct_bachelors": "21.2", "pct_white": "87.8", "urban_index": "8.83", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "61030.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "John Moolenaar" }, { "district_id": "MI-03", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Hillary Scholten", "rep_candidate": "Terri DeBoer", "dem_pct": "57.14", "rep_pct": "41.42", "other_pct": "1.44", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.95", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Safe D", "inside_elections": "Likely D", "pvi_2026": "D+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "10.15", "margin_pres2024": "7.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "5.8", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.99", "local_residual": "-6.36", "pct_bachelors": "36.7", "pct_white": "70.1", "urban_index": "11.59", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "72574.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Hillary Scholten" }, { "district_id": "MI-04", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Sean McCann", "rep_candidate": "Bill Huizenga", "dem_pct": "49.16", "rep_pct": "49.33", "other_pct": "1.51", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.17", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.2", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-11.9", "margin_pres2024": "-5.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.45", "local_residual": "-8.89", "pct_bachelors": "31.7", "pct_white": "75.1", "urban_index": "10.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "70086.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bill Huizenga" }, { "district_id": "MI-05", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Christian Vukasovich", "rep_candidate": "Tim Walberg", "dem_pct": "38.59", "rep_pct": "59.09", "other_pct": "2.32", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-20.99", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-33.44", "margin_pres2024": "-27.41", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.45", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.42", "local_residual": "-7.92", "pct_bachelors": "22.9", "pct_white": "84.5", "urban_index": "9.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64067.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tim Walberg" }, { "district_id": "MI-06", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Debbie Dingell", "rep_candidate": "Heather Smiley", "dem_pct": "67.72", "rep_pct": "30.07", "other_pct": "2.21", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "27.85", "margin_pres2024": "23.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.65", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.58", "local_residual": "0.24", "pct_bachelors": "51.1", "pct_white": "69.1", "urban_index": "11.51", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "88275.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Debbie Dingell" }, { "district_id": "MI-07", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "William Lawrence", "rep_candidate": "Tom Barrett", "dem_pct": "50.84", "rep_pct": "47.9", "other_pct": "1.26", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-3.84", "margin_pres2024": "-1.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.82", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.28", "local_residual": "-10.07", "pct_bachelors": "36.3", "pct_white": "79.9", "urban_index": "10.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "74404.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tom Barrett" }, { "district_id": "MI-08", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Kristen McDonald Rivet", "rep_candidate": "Thomas Smith", "dem_pct": "55.51", "rep_pct": "41.93", "other_pct": "2.56", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "13.94", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "R+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "6.93", "margin_pres2024": "-2.01", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.01", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.95", "local_residual": "1.6", "pct_bachelors": "23.9", "pct_white": "73.4", "urban_index": "10.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "57526.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Kristen McDonald Rivet" }, { "district_id": "MI-09", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Ray Pooley", "rep_candidate": "Lisa McClain", "dem_pct": "34.7", "rep_pct": "62.64", "other_pct": "2.66", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.7", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-38.71", "margin_pres2024": "-32.77", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.0", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.07", "local_residual": "-10.28", "pct_bachelors": "28.1", "pct_white": "87.9", "urban_index": "10.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "78456.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lisa McClain" }, { "district_id": "MI-10", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Christina Hines", "rep_candidate": "Michael Bouchard", "dem_pct": "52.44", "rep_pct": "45.26", "other_pct": "2.3", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.35", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt R", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-6.39", "margin_pres2024": "-6.69", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.74", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.04", "local_residual": "-0.31", "pct_bachelors": "29.3", "pct_white": "72.8", "urban_index": "12.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "71936.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MI-11", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Jeremy Moss", "rep_candidate": "Ethan Baker", "dem_pct": "60.86", "rep_pct": "36.84", "other_pct": "2.3", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.59", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "19.02", "margin_pres2024": "16.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "5.56", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.16", "local_residual": "-6.19", "pct_bachelors": "49.6", "pct_white": "68.3", "urban_index": "12.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "86379.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MI-12", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Rashida Tlaib", "rep_candidate": "James Hooper", "dem_pct": "75.98", "rep_pct": "21.2", "other_pct": "2.82", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "56.37", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "55.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "46.52", "margin_pres2024": "39.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.85", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.48", "local_residual": "2.13", "pct_bachelors": "26.4", "pct_white": "46.0", "urban_index": "12.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "54818.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rashida Tlaib" }, { "district_id": "MI-13", "state_abbr": "MI", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Donavan McKinney", "rep_candidate": "T.P. Nykoriak", "dem_pct": "76.51", "rep_pct": "19.86", "other_pct": "3.63", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "58.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "57.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "47.33", "margin_pres2024": "41.99", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.45", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.79", "local_residual": "2.44", "pct_bachelors": "21.4", "pct_white": "36.8", "urban_index": "12.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "47778.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MN-01", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Jake Johnson", "rep_candidate": "Brad Finstad", "dem_pct": "50.05", "rep_pct": "49.95", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.1", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-17.11", "margin_pres2024": "-12.23", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.21", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.33", "local_residual": "-2.02", "pct_bachelors": "31.3", "pct_white": "82.4", "urban_index": "9.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "73209.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brad Finstad" }, { "district_id": "MN-02", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Matt Little", "rep_candidate": "Eric Pratt", "dem_pct": "57.21", "rep_pct": "42.79", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.42", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Likely D", "pvi_2026": "D+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "13.78", "margin_pres2024": "5.95", "swing_vs_house2024": "0.64", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.47", "local_residual": "-5.88", "pct_bachelors": "42.5", "pct_white": "75.3", "urban_index": "11.23", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "101144.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MN-03", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Kelly Morrison", "rep_candidate": "Tyler Bass", "dem_pct": "64.11", "rep_pct": "35.89", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "17.0", "margin_pres2024": "21.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.22", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.5", "local_residual": "-7.85", "pct_bachelors": "50.4", "pct_white": "71.4", "urban_index": "11.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "100867.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Kelly Morrison" }, { "district_id": "MN-04", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Betty McCollum", "rep_candidate": "Paul Wikstrom", "dem_pct": "73.18", "rep_pct": "26.82", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "46.36", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "46.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "34.73", "margin_pres2024": "36.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.63", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.88", "local_residual": "-4.46", "pct_bachelors": "46.6", "pct_white": "62.2", "urban_index": "12.32", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "82138.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Betty McCollum" }, { "district_id": "MN-05", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Ilhan Omar", "rep_candidate": "John Nagel", "dem_pct": "76.68", "rep_pct": "16.26", "other_pct": "7.06", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "65.01", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "50.35", "margin_pres2024": "63.54", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.66", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.47", "local_residual": "-12.87", "pct_bachelors": "49.7", "pct_white": "59.9", "urban_index": "12.89", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "77372.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ilhan Omar" }, { "district_id": "MN-06", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Doug Chapin", "rep_candidate": "Tom Emmer", "dem_pct": "44.21", "rep_pct": "55.79", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-25.06", "margin_pres2024": "-20.07", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.48", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.49", "local_residual": "-5.86", "pct_bachelors": "34.5", "pct_white": "84.1", "urban_index": "10.45", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "95930.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tom Emmer" }, { "district_id": "MN-07", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Erik Osberg", "rep_candidate": "Michelle Fischbach", "dem_pct": "35.06", "rep_pct": "64.94", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-29.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-30.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-41.06", "margin_pres2024": "-37.1", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.22", "local_residual": "-7.13", "pct_bachelors": "23.7", "pct_white": "88.1", "urban_index": "8.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "70672.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Michelle Fischbach" }, { "district_id": "MN-08", "state_abbr": "MN", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Trina Swanson", "rep_candidate": "Pete Stauber", "dem_pct": "46.88", "rep_pct": "53.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-16.08", "margin_pres2024": "-14.53", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.84", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.29", "local_residual": "-6.06", "pct_bachelors": "26.8", "pct_white": "87.0", "urban_index": "8.71", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "69868.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Pete Stauber" }, { "district_id": "MO-01", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Wesley Bell", "rep_candidate": "Paul Berry", "dem_pct": "81.51", "rep_pct": "13.92", "other_pct": "4.57", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "70.83", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "68.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "61.04", "margin_pres2024": "58.18", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.79", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.64", "local_residual": "-1.7", "pct_bachelors": "36.2", "pct_white": "40.4", "urban_index": "12.37", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "57762.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Wesley Bell" }, { "district_id": "MO-02", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Fred Wellman", "rep_candidate": "Ann Wagner", "dem_pct": "51.14", "rep_pct": "46.21", "other_pct": "2.65", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "5.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-12.36", "margin_pres2024": "-8.04", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.43", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.11", "local_residual": "-1.24", "pct_bachelors": "48.7", "pct_white": "84.2", "urban_index": "11.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "96915.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ann Wagner" }, { "district_id": "MO-03", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Bethany Mann", "rep_candidate": "Bob Onder", "dem_pct": "44.78", "rep_pct": "52.51", "other_pct": "2.71", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.95", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-26.92", "margin_pres2024": "-27.1", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.98", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.15", "local_residual": "4.81", "pct_bachelors": "34.5", "pct_white": "84.6", "urban_index": "10.15", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "75478.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bob Onder" }, { "district_id": "MO-04", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jordan Herrera", "rep_candidate": "Mark Alford", "dem_pct": "35.58", "rep_pct": "61.51", "other_pct": "2.91", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-26.71", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-45.81", "margin_pres2024": "-42.81", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.11", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.1", "local_residual": "1.76", "pct_bachelors": "24.1", "pct_white": "83.3", "urban_index": "9.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "62213.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mark Alford" }, { "district_id": "MO-05", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Emanuel Cleaver", "rep_candidate": "Rick Brattin", "dem_pct": "69.49", "rep_pct": "28.13", "other_pct": "2.38", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "42.37", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "4.74", "margin_pres2024": "23.5", "swing_vs_house2024": "37.63", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.87", "local_residual": "4.52", "pct_bachelors": "33.2", "pct_white": "57.9", "urban_index": "11.89", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "61184.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Emanuel Cleaver" }, { "district_id": "MO-06", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Josh Smead", "rep_candidate": "Chris Stigall", "dem_pct": "38.96", "rep_pct": "58.7", "other_pct": "2.34", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-20.21", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-20.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-44.84", "margin_pres2024": "-39.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "24.63", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.11", "local_residual": "4.76", "pct_bachelors": "25.8", "pct_white": "86.2", "urban_index": "9.23", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "66176.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MO-07", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Missi Hesketh", "rep_candidate": "Eric Burlison", "dem_pct": "35.4", "rep_pct": "62.19", "other_pct": "2.41", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-46.29", "margin_pres2024": "-43.13", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.84", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.68", "local_residual": "1.33", "pct_bachelors": "26.5", "pct_white": "82.8", "urban_index": "10.06", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "56419.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Eric Burlison" }, { "district_id": "MO-08", "state_abbr": "MO", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Chris Reichard", "rep_candidate": "Jason Smith", "dem_pct": "29.15", "rep_pct": "67.76", "other_pct": "3.09", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-39.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-55.49", "margin_pres2024": "-54.6", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.64", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.76", "local_residual": "0.42", "pct_bachelors": "19.8", "pct_white": "86.8", "urban_index": "9.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "53903.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jason Smith" }, { "district_id": "MS-01", "state_abbr": "MS", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Cliff Johnson", "rep_candidate": "Trent Kelly", "dem_pct": "40.28", "rep_pct": "58.33", "other_pct": "1.39", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-39.62", "margin_pres2024": "-37.53", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.32", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.22", "local_residual": "4.88", "pct_bachelors": "23.0", "pct_white": "64.7", "urban_index": "9.22", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "56871.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Trent Kelly" }, { "district_id": "MS-02", "state_abbr": "MS", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Bennie Thompson", "rep_candidate": "Ron Eller", "dem_pct": "67.62", "rep_pct": "29.9", "other_pct": "2.48", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "40.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "24.04", "margin_pres2024": "20.58", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.64", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.1", "local_residual": "3.75", "pct_bachelors": "21.1", "pct_white": "31.8", "urban_index": "8.98", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "40532.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bennie Thompson" }, { "district_id": "MS-03", "state_abbr": "MS", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Michael Chiaradio", "rep_candidate": "Michael Guest", "dem_pct": "41.26", "rep_pct": "57.49", "other_pct": "1.25", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-16.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-17.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-29.47", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.03", "local_residual": "-1.31", "pct_bachelors": "27.9", "pct_white": "59.3", "urban_index": "9.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "56209.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Michael Guest" }, { "district_id": "MS-04", "state_abbr": "MS", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jeffrey Hulum", "rep_candidate": "Mike Ezell", "dem_pct": "35.97", "rep_pct": "60.89", "other_pct": "3.14", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-25.73", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-47.9", "margin_pres2024": "-43.0", "swing_vs_house2024": "22.17", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.27", "local_residual": "2.92", "pct_bachelors": "23.5", "pct_white": "65.7", "urban_index": "9.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "57460.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Ezell" }, { "district_id": "MT-01", "state_abbr": "MT", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Sam Forstag", "rep_candidate": "Aaron Flint", "dem_pct": "51.45", "rep_pct": "45.78", "other_pct": "2.77", "pct_reported": "78.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.83", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-7.91", "margin_pres2024": "-11.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.75", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.75", "local_residual": "3.41", "pct_bachelors": "37.2", "pct_white": "84.8", "urban_index": "8.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "65994.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "MT-02", "state_abbr": "MT", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Brian Miller", "rep_candidate": "Troy Downing", "dem_pct": "32.18", "rep_pct": "58.24", "other_pct": "7.8", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-31.98", "margin_pres2024": "-30.51", "swing_vs_house2024": "3.16", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.69", "local_residual": "-12.66", "pct_bachelors": "30.7", "pct_white": "81.4", "urban_index": "8.61", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "69884.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Troy Downing" }, { "district_id": "NC-01", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Don Davis", "rep_candidate": "Laurie Buckhout", "dem_pct": "49.81", "rep_pct": "47.0", "other_pct": "3.19", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.9", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-11.64", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.55", "local_residual": "0.2", "pct_bachelors": "22.0", "pct_white": "47.4", "urban_index": "9.46", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "53854.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Don Davis" }, { "district_id": "NC-02", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Deborah Ross", "rep_candidate": "Eugene Douglass", "dem_pct": "75.18", "rep_pct": "23.52", "other_pct": "1.31", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "52.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "52.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "34.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.91", "local_residual": "3.56", "pct_bachelors": "59.1", "pct_white": "57.0", "urban_index": "11.82", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "96138.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Deborah Ross" }, { "district_id": "NC-03", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Raymond Smith", "rep_candidate": "Gregory Murphy", "dem_pct": "49.25", "rep_pct": "49.35", "other_pct": "1.4", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.1", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-13.75", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.65", "local_residual": "-0.7", "pct_bachelors": "24.1", "pct_white": "64.4", "urban_index": "9.34", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "61546.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Gregory Murphy" }, { "district_id": "NC-04", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Valerie Foushee", "rep_candidate": "Mahesh Ganorkar", "dem_pct": "79.12", "rep_pct": "18.94", "other_pct": "1.94", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "61.37", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "46.07", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.3", "local_residual": "0.95", "pct_bachelors": "43.7", "pct_white": "52.6", "urban_index": "10.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "74019.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Valerie Foushee" }, { "district_id": "NC-05", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Charles Hubbard", "rep_candidate": "Virginia Foxx", "dem_pct": "48.7", "rep_pct": "48.66", "other_pct": "2.64", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.1", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-17.95", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.99", "local_residual": "3.64", "pct_bachelors": "27.2", "pct_white": "72.7", "urban_index": "10.04", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "54503.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Virginia Foxx" }, { "district_id": "NC-06", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Cyril Jefferson", "rep_candidate": "Addison McDowell", "dem_pct": "51.14", "rep_pct": "48.86", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.28", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-17.37", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.65", "local_residual": "5.3", "pct_bachelors": "32.9", "pct_white": "51.3", "urban_index": "11.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "61429.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Addison McDowell" }, { "district_id": "NC-07", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Kimberly Hardy", "rep_candidate": "David Rouzer", "dem_pct": "49.13", "rep_pct": "49.89", "other_pct": "0.98", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.77", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-0.8", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-13.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.19", "local_residual": "-1.16", "pct_bachelors": "29.8", "pct_white": "61.4", "urban_index": "10.02", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62763.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "David Rouzer" }, { "district_id": "NC-08", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Colby Watson", "rep_candidate": "Mark Harris", "dem_pct": "48.62", "rep_pct": "50.39", "other_pct": "0.99", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.79", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-19.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.8", "local_residual": "3.45", "pct_bachelors": "25.9", "pct_white": "69.6", "urban_index": "10.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "69466.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mark Harris" }, { "district_id": "NC-09", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Richard Ojeda", "rep_candidate": "Richard Hudson", "dem_pct": "51.11", "rep_pct": "48.89", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-16.02", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.24", "local_residual": "3.89", "pct_bachelors": "27.7", "pct_white": "55.6", "urban_index": "10.21", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62661.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Richard Hudson" }, { "district_id": "NC-10", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Ashley Bell", "rep_candidate": "Patrick Harrigan", "dem_pct": "48.69", "rep_pct": "49.72", "other_pct": "1.59", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.05", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-17.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.85", "local_residual": "2.51", "pct_bachelors": "24.2", "pct_white": "75.7", "urban_index": "10.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64668.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Patrick Harrigan" }, { "district_id": "NC-11", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Jamie Ager", "rep_candidate": "Jennifer Balkcom", "dem_pct": "57.14", "rep_pct": "41.3", "other_pct": "1.56", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "16.09", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-9.61", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "25.7", "local_residual": "11.36", "pct_bachelors": "33.9", "pct_white": "82.2", "urban_index": "9.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62261.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NC-12", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Alma Adams", "rep_candidate": "Jack Codiga", "dem_pct": "81.2", "rep_pct": "18.8", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "62.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "62.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "47.06", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.34", "local_residual": "1.0", "pct_bachelors": "39.3", "pct_white": "40.6", "urban_index": "11.8", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "73841.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Alma Adams" }, { "district_id": "NC-13", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Paul Barringer", "rep_candidate": "Brad Knott", "dem_pct": "50.5", "rep_pct": "48.09", "other_pct": "1.41", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-16.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.1", "local_residual": "4.75", "pct_bachelors": "36.5", "pct_white": "58.9", "urban_index": "10.83", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82201.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Brad Knott" }, { "district_id": "NC-14", "state_abbr": "NC", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "LaKesha Womack", "rep_candidate": "Tim Moore", "dem_pct": "51.11", "rep_pct": "48.89", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-15.23", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.45", "local_residual": "3.11", "pct_bachelors": "48.1", "pct_white": "57.1", "urban_index": "11.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "81717.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Tim Moore" }, { "district_id": "ND-AL", "state_abbr": "ND", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Trygve Hammer", "rep_candidate": "Julie Fedorchak", "dem_pct": "36.67", "rep_pct": "57.41", "other_pct": "3.96", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-22.05", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-39.04", "margin_pres2024": "-37.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.99", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.34", "local_residual": "1.0", "pct_bachelors": "31.4", "pct_white": "81.7", "urban_index": "9.26", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "71970.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Julie Fedorchak" }, { "district_id": "NE-01", "state_abbr": "NE", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Chris Backemeyer", "rep_candidate": "Mike Flood", "dem_pct": "46.38", "rep_pct": "50.08", "other_pct": "1.81", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-20.2", "margin_pres2024": "-13.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.36", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.4", "local_residual": "-4.95", "pct_bachelors": "35.3", "pct_white": "77.9", "urban_index": "10.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "74193.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Flood" }, { "district_id": "NE-02", "state_abbr": "NE", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Denise Powell", "rep_candidate": "Brinker Harding", "dem_pct": "56.41", "rep_pct": "41.02", "other_pct": "2.57", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "D+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-1.86", "margin_pres2024": "4.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.66", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.11", "local_residual": "-3.23", "pct_bachelors": "41.6", "pct_white": "67.8", "urban_index": "11.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "77535.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NE-03", "state_abbr": "NE", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Becky Stille", "rep_candidate": "Adrian Smith", "dem_pct": "19.99", "rep_pct": "71.03", "other_pct": "8.98", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-56.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-51.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-60.84", "margin_pres2024": "-54.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "4.76", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-1.64", "local_residual": "-15.99", "pct_bachelors": "23.8", "pct_white": "81.4", "urban_index": "8.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "61627.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Adrian Smith" }, { "district_id": "NH-01", "state_abbr": "NH", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Stefany Shaheen", "rep_candidate": "Anthony DiLorenzo", "dem_pct": "57.33", "rep_pct": "42.67", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "14.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.08", "margin_pres2024": "2.03", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.58", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.63", "local_residual": "-1.72", "pct_bachelors": "39.6", "pct_white": "87.3", "urban_index": "10.62", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "91412.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NH-02", "state_abbr": "NH", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Maggie Goodlander", "rep_candidate": "Lily Tang Williams", "dem_pct": "59.36", "rep_pct": "38.34", "other_pct": "2.3", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.51", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "5.97", "margin_pres2024": "3.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.55", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.89", "local_residual": "3.54", "pct_bachelors": "38.5", "pct_white": "87.0", "urban_index": "9.64", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "88494.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Maggie Goodlander" }, { "district_id": "NJ-01", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Donald Norcross", "rep_candidate": "Damon Galdo", "dem_pct": "70.22", "rep_pct": "29.78", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "40.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "40.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "18.24", "margin_pres2024": "19.02", "swing_vs_house2024": "22.2", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.42", "local_residual": "7.08", "pct_bachelors": "34.1", "pct_white": "59.4", "urban_index": "12.29", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "82670.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Donald Norcross" }, { "district_id": "NJ-02", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Zack Mullock", "rep_candidate": "Jeff Van Drew", "dem_pct": "50.68", "rep_pct": "48.28", "other_pct": "1.04", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "2.43", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-17.03", "margin_pres2024": "-12.74", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.45", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.17", "local_residual": "0.82", "pct_bachelors": "29.3", "pct_white": "63.9", "urban_index": "10.53", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "80850.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jeff Van Drew" }, { "district_id": "NJ-03", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Herbert Conaway", "rep_candidate": "Michael McGuire", "dem_pct": "62.43", "rep_pct": "35.65", "other_pct": "1.92", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.78", "margin_pres2024": "8.5", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.53", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.8", "local_residual": "4.46", "pct_bachelors": "45.2", "pct_white": "63.5", "urban_index": "11.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "106253.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Herbert Conaway" }, { "district_id": "NJ-04", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Rachel Peace", "rep_candidate": "Chris Smith", "dem_pct": "40.88", "rep_pct": "59.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-36.07", "margin_pres2024": "-30.53", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.83", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.29", "local_residual": "-2.06", "pct_bachelors": "39.0", "pct_white": "80.4", "urban_index": "11.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "90090.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Chris Smith" }, { "district_id": "NJ-05", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Josh Gottheimer", "rep_candidate": "Sean Kirrane", "dem_pct": "62.45", "rep_pct": "34.62", "other_pct": "2.93", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.67", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "11.53", "margin_pres2024": "1.54", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "27.13", "local_residual": "12.78", "pct_bachelors": "53.5", "pct_white": "59.2", "urban_index": "12.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "124761.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Josh Gottheimer" }, { "district_id": "NJ-06", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Frank Pallone", "rep_candidate": "Hillary Herzig", "dem_pct": "69.06", "rep_pct": "30.94", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "88.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "16.32", "margin_pres2024": "6.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.8", "swing_vs_pres2024": "31.53", "local_residual": "17.19", "pct_bachelors": "41.5", "pct_white": "41.8", "urban_index": "12.34", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "100440.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Frank Pallone" }, { "district_id": "NJ-07", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Rebecca Bennett", "rep_candidate": "Thomas Kean", "dem_pct": "57.1", "rep_pct": "41.36", "other_pct": "1.54", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.99", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-5.5", "margin_pres2024": "-1.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.49", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.19", "local_residual": "2.84", "pct_bachelors": "53.6", "pct_white": "70.8", "urban_index": "11.26", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "131419.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Thomas Kean" }, { "district_id": "NJ-08", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Rob Menendez", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "88.61", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "11.39", "pct_reported": "56.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "84.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "26.15", "margin_pres2024": "24.81", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "39.0", "pct_white": "24.9", "urban_index": "13.99", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "78229.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rob Menendez" }, { "district_id": "NJ-09", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Nellie Pou", "rep_candidate": "Rosie Pino", "dem_pct": "66.73", "rep_pct": "31.8", "other_pct": "1.47", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "35.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "5.06", "margin_pres2024": "-1.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "30.39", "swing_vs_pres2024": "36.62", "local_residual": "22.28", "pct_bachelors": "32.9", "pct_white": "38.2", "urban_index": "13.37", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "77469.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nellie Pou" }, { "district_id": "NJ-10", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "LaMonica McIver", "rep_candidate": "Carmen Bucco", "dem_pct": "84.36", "rep_pct": "15.64", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "88.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "68.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "69.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "53.98", "margin_pres2024": "51.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.74", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.06", "local_residual": "2.71", "pct_bachelors": "31.5", "pct_white": "18.8", "urban_index": "13.5", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "67939.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "LaMonica McIver" }, { "district_id": "NJ-11", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Analilia Mejia", "rep_candidate": "Joe Hathaway", "dem_pct": "60.16", "rep_pct": "38.94", "other_pct": "0.9", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.41", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "14.99", "margin_pres2024": "8.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.42", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.52", "local_residual": "-1.83", "pct_bachelors": "58.1", "pct_white": "61.6", "urban_index": "12.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "128233.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Analilia Mejia" }, { "district_id": "NJ-12", "state_abbr": "NJ", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Adam Hamawy", "rep_candidate": "Gregg Mele", "dem_pct": "70.18", "rep_pct": "28.32", "other_pct": "1.5", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "42.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "42.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "25.36", "margin_pres2024": "24.54", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.96", "local_residual": "3.61", "pct_bachelors": "48.5", "pct_white": "39.9", "urban_index": "11.96", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "109146.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NM-01", "state_abbr": "NM", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Melanie Stansbury", "rep_candidate": "Ndidiamaka Okpareke", "dem_pct": "63.54", "rep_pct": "36.46", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "12.74", "margin_pres2024": "13.0", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.34", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.08", "local_residual": "-0.27", "pct_bachelors": "38.0", "pct_white": "45.5", "urban_index": "11.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "66579.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Melanie Stansbury" }, { "district_id": "NM-02", "state_abbr": "NM", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Gabriel Vasquez", "rep_candidate": "Gregory Cunningham", "dem_pct": "58.69", "rep_pct": "41.31", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "17.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "17.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "4.14", "margin_pres2024": "-1.85", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.24", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.23", "local_residual": "4.88", "pct_bachelors": "22.8", "pct_white": "29.4", "urban_index": "9.98", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "53550.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Gabriel Vasquez" }, { "district_id": "NM-03", "state_abbr": "NM", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Teresa Leger Fernandez", "rep_candidate": "Martin Zamora", "dem_pct": "61.49", "rep_pct": "38.51", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "12.58", "margin_pres2024": "5.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.4", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.66", "local_residual": "3.32", "pct_bachelors": "25.6", "pct_white": "34.5", "urban_index": "9.02", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "58790.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Teresa Leger Fernandez" }, { "district_id": "NV-01", "state_abbr": "NV", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Dina Titus", "rep_candidate": "Carrie Buck", "dem_pct": "59.01", "rep_pct": "38.01", "other_pct": "1.65", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.65", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "7.77", "margin_pres2024": "2.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.87", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.34", "local_residual": "5.0", "pct_bachelors": "24.1", "pct_white": "39.6", "urban_index": "12.58", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "63781.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Dina Titus" }, { "district_id": "NV-02", "state_abbr": "NV", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Teresa Benitez-Thompson", "rep_candidate": "David Flippo", "dem_pct": "50.75", "rep_pct": "44.06", "other_pct": "5.19", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "7.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Tilt R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-14.27", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.33", "local_residual": "6.98", "pct_bachelors": "28.2", "pct_white": "62.8", "urban_index": "10.39", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "79687.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NV-03", "state_abbr": "NV", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Susie Lee", "rep_candidate": "Martin O'Donnell", "dem_pct": "59.14", "rep_pct": "38.6", "other_pct": "2.26", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.01", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "2.74", "margin_pres2024": "-0.74", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.27", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.76", "local_residual": "7.41", "pct_bachelors": "33.3", "pct_white": "43.9", "urban_index": "12.51", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "75550.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Susie Lee" }, { "district_id": "NV-04", "state_abbr": "NV", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Steven Horsford", "rep_candidate": "Cody Whipple", "dem_pct": "60.5", "rep_pct": "37.66", "other_pct": "0.96", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.27", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Likely D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.32", "margin_pres2024": "2.36", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.95", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.9", "local_residual": "6.56", "pct_bachelors": "20.0", "pct_white": "37.3", "urban_index": "12.07", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "70338.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Steven Horsford" }, { "district_id": "NY-01", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Christopher Gallant", "rep_candidate": "Nicholas LaLota", "dem_pct": "48.88", "rep_pct": "51.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-10.44", "margin_pres2024": "-10.19", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.2", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.95", "local_residual": "-6.4", "pct_bachelors": "46.8", "pct_white": "71.6", "urban_index": "11.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "126171.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nicholas LaLota" }, { "district_id": "NY-02", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Patrick Halpin", "rep_candidate": "Andrew Garbarino", "dem_pct": "48.72", "rep_pct": "51.28", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.56", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-19.54", "margin_pres2024": "-14.07", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.98", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.51", "local_residual": "-2.84", "pct_bachelors": "31.6", "pct_white": "55.8", "urban_index": "12.22", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "113994.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Andrew Garbarino" }, { "district_id": "NY-03", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Tom Suozzi", "rep_candidate": "Michael LiPetri Jr.", "dem_pct": "55.2", "rep_pct": "44.8", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "3.58", "margin_pres2024": "-4.35", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.82", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.75", "local_residual": "0.4", "pct_bachelors": "51.5", "pct_white": "55.7", "urban_index": "12.46", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "129730.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tom Suozzi" }, { "district_id": "NY-04", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Laura Gillen", "rep_candidate": "Jeanine Driscoll", "dem_pct": "56.28", "rep_pct": "43.48", "other_pct": "0.24", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "12.83", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "13.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "2.3", "margin_pres2024": "1.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.53", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.54", "local_residual": "-2.81", "pct_bachelors": "43.4", "pct_white": "50.7", "urban_index": "13.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "131291.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Laura Gillen" }, { "district_id": "NY-05", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Gregory Meeks", "rep_candidate": "George Marsh", "dem_pct": "80.7", "rep_pct": "19.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "61.4", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "61.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "45.86", "margin_pres2024": "42.8", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.54", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.6", "local_residual": "4.25", "pct_bachelors": "27.6", "pct_white": "12.8", "urban_index": "13.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "81621.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Gregory Meeks" }, { "district_id": "NY-06", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Grace Meng", "rep_candidate": "Joseph Chou", "dem_pct": "69.17", "rep_pct": "30.83", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "23.43", "margin_pres2024": "6.53", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.91", "swing_vs_pres2024": "31.81", "local_residual": "17.47", "pct_bachelors": "38.9", "pct_white": "24.2", "urban_index": "14.48", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "73861.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Grace Meng" }, { "district_id": "NY-07", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Claire Valdez", "rep_candidate": "Melvin Rivera", "dem_pct": "83.6", "rep_pct": "15.07", "other_pct": "1.33", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "69.45", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "69.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "56.21", "margin_pres2024": "47.18", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.24", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.27", "local_residual": "7.92", "pct_bachelors": "42.9", "pct_white": "36.2", "urban_index": "14.85", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "88141.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NY-08", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Hakeem Jeffries", "rep_candidate": "Lewis Mizrahi", "dem_pct": "80.04", "rep_pct": "19.96", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "60.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "50.78", "margin_pres2024": "44.7", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.3", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.38", "local_residual": "1.03", "pct_bachelors": "33.6", "pct_white": "27.6", "urban_index": "14.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "58631.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Hakeem Jeffries" }, { "district_id": "NY-09", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Yvette Clarke", "rep_candidate": "Joel Anabilah-Azumah", "dem_pct": "82.83", "rep_pct": "17.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "65.66", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "66.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "48.49", "margin_pres2024": "41.47", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.17", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.19", "local_residual": "9.84", "pct_bachelors": "36.7", "pct_white": "32.4", "urban_index": "14.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "71800.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Yvette Clarke" }, { "district_id": "NY-10", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Brad Lander", "rep_candidate": "Jennifer Moore", "dem_pct": "83.98", "rep_pct": "16.02", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "67.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "68.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "69.19", "margin_pres2024": "61.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "-1.23", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.07", "local_residual": "-8.27", "pct_bachelors": "60.7", "pct_white": "48.6", "urban_index": "14.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "103988.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NY-11", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Michael DeCillis", "rep_candidate": "Nicole Malliotakis", "dem_pct": "43.83", "rep_pct": "56.17", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-28.19", "margin_pres2024": "-24.82", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.85", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.48", "local_residual": "-1.86", "pct_bachelors": "36.4", "pct_white": "51.4", "urban_index": "13.63", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "82517.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nicole Malliotakis" }, { "district_id": "NY-12", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Micah Lasher", "rep_candidate": "Caroline Shinkle", "dem_pct": "77.4", "rep_pct": "20.07", "other_pct": "2.53", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "58.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "57.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "61.01", "margin_pres2024": "64.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "-2.2", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-6.08", "local_residual": "-20.43", "pct_bachelors": "79.3", "pct_white": "65.2", "urban_index": "14.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "142104.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NY-13", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Darializa Avila Chevalier", "rep_candidate": "Manual Williams", "dem_pct": "88.51", "rep_pct": "11.49", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "84.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "77.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "77.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "67.08", "margin_pres2024": "60.27", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.94", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.75", "local_residual": "2.4", "pct_bachelors": "34.4", "pct_white": "15.4", "urban_index": "14.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "47855.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NY-14", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", "rep_candidate": "Diamant Hysenaj", "dem_pct": "78.41", "rep_pct": "21.59", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "56.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "57.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "38.39", "margin_pres2024": "32.38", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.43", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.44", "local_residual": "10.1", "pct_bachelors": "27.0", "pct_white": "17.7", "urban_index": "14.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "61052.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" }, { "district_id": "NY-15", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Ritchie Torres", "rep_candidate": "Stylo Sapaskis", "dem_pct": "76.97", "rep_pct": "10.67", "other_pct": "12.36", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "75.65", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "66.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "56.71", "margin_pres2024": "48.8", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.94", "swing_vs_pres2024": "26.85", "local_residual": "12.5", "pct_bachelors": "21.3", "pct_white": "9.3", "urban_index": "14.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "42090.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ritchie Torres" }, { "district_id": "NY-16", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "George Latimer", "rep_candidate": "Joseph Cinquemani", "dem_pct": "82.29", "rep_pct": "17.71", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "37.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "64.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "65.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "43.17", "margin_pres2024": "33.31", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.41", "swing_vs_pres2024": "31.27", "local_residual": "16.92", "pct_bachelors": "47.0", "pct_white": "39.6", "urban_index": "13.23", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "96051.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "George Latimer" }, { "district_id": "NY-17", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Cait Conley", "rep_candidate": "Michael Lawler", "dem_pct": "52.22", "rep_pct": "47.78", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "85.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "4.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-6.04", "margin_pres2024": "0.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.48", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.88", "local_residual": "-10.47", "pct_bachelors": "48.5", "pct_white": "64.4", "urban_index": "11.44", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "115661.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Michael Lawler" }, { "district_id": "NY-18", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "18", "dem_candidate": "Pat Ryan", "rep_candidate": "Jackie Auringer", "dem_pct": "62.92", "rep_pct": "37.08", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "25.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "14.35", "margin_pres2024": "3.35", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.49", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.49", "local_residual": "8.14", "pct_bachelors": "34.5", "pct_white": "62.8", "urban_index": "10.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "87124.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Pat Ryan" }, { "district_id": "NY-19", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "19", "dem_candidate": "Josh Riley", "rep_candidate": "Peter Oberacker", "dem_pct": "59.66", "rep_pct": "40.34", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "19.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "2.21", "margin_pres2024": "1.8", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.11", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.52", "local_residual": "3.18", "pct_bachelors": "32.7", "pct_white": "80.2", "urban_index": "10.02", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67645.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Josh Riley" }, { "district_id": "NY-20", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "20", "dem_candidate": "Paul Tonko", "rep_candidate": "Ralph Ambrosio", "dem_pct": "63.61", "rep_pct": "36.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "27.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "27.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "22.26", "margin_pres2024": "14.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "4.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.9", "local_residual": "-1.45", "pct_bachelors": "41.1", "pct_white": "72.4", "urban_index": "11.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "79758.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Paul Tonko" }, { "district_id": "NY-21", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "21", "dem_candidate": "Blake Gendebien", "rep_candidate": "Anthony Constantino", "dem_pct": "49.08", "rep_pct": "50.92", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.84", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-24.28", "margin_pres2024": "-20.76", "swing_vs_house2024": "22.44", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.92", "local_residual": "4.57", "pct_bachelors": "26.1", "pct_white": "87.0", "urban_index": "8.77", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "66565.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "NY-22", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "22", "dem_candidate": "John Mannion", "rep_candidate": "Kailee Buller", "dem_pct": "58.02", "rep_pct": "41.98", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "16.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "9.12", "margin_pres2024": "7.69", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.92", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.35", "local_residual": "-6.0", "pct_bachelors": "33.2", "pct_white": "75.9", "urban_index": "10.74", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "68941.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "John Mannion" }, { "district_id": "NY-23", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "23", "dem_candidate": "Aaron Gies", "rep_candidate": "Nick Langworthy", "dem_pct": "40.29", "rep_pct": "59.71", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-19.42", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-31.61", "margin_pres2024": "-21.19", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.19", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.77", "local_residual": "-12.57", "pct_bachelors": "29.5", "pct_white": "88.0", "urban_index": "9.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "66388.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Nick Langworthy" }, { "district_id": "NY-24", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "24", "dem_candidate": "Alissa Ellman", "rep_candidate": "Claudia Tenney", "dem_pct": "39.7", "rep_pct": "60.3", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-20.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-31.37", "margin_pres2024": "-23.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "2.64", "local_residual": "-11.71", "pct_bachelors": "25.7", "pct_white": "87.2", "urban_index": "9.59", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "66103.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Claudia Tenney" }, { "district_id": "NY-25", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "25", "dem_candidate": "Joseph Morelle", "rep_candidate": "Virginia McIntyre", "dem_pct": "63.03", "rep_pct": "36.97", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "26.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "24.56", "margin_pres2024": "18.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "1.5", "swing_vs_pres2024": "7.41", "local_residual": "-6.94", "pct_bachelors": "40.0", "pct_white": "67.1", "urban_index": "11.81", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "67775.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Joseph Morelle" }, { "district_id": "NY-26", "state_abbr": "NY", "district": "26", "dem_candidate": "Timothy Kennedy", "rep_candidate": "Dennis Hannon", "dem_pct": "65.54", "rep_pct": "34.46", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "31.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "30.34", "margin_pres2024": "19.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "0.74", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.52", "local_residual": "-2.83", "pct_bachelors": "34.4", "pct_white": "64.8", "urban_index": "12.33", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "63995.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Timothy Kennedy" }, { "district_id": "OH-01", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Greg Landsman", "rep_candidate": "Eric Conroy", "dem_pct": "54.38", "rep_pct": "42.94", "other_pct": "2.67", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "11.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "R+1", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-2.62", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.38", "local_residual": "0.03", "pct_bachelors": "45.1", "pct_white": "67.4", "urban_index": "11.93", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "74773.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Greg Landsman" }, { "district_id": "OH-02", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Jen Mazzuckelli", "rep_candidate": "David Taylor", "dem_pct": "35.76", "rep_pct": "64.24", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-42.48", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.0", "local_residual": "-0.34", "pct_bachelors": "20.3", "pct_white": "91.5", "urban_index": "9.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "61589.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "David Taylor" }, { "district_id": "OH-03", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Joyce Beatty", "rep_candidate": "Cleophus Dulaney", "dem_pct": "77.22", "rep_pct": "22.78", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "54.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "54.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "40.65", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.79", "local_residual": "-0.56", "pct_bachelors": "44.2", "pct_white": "55.1", "urban_index": "12.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "67720.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Joyce Beatty" }, { "district_id": "OH-04", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Joshua Kolasinski", "rep_candidate": "Jim Jordan", "dem_pct": "31.25", "rep_pct": "64.49", "other_pct": "4.26", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-34.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-33.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-43.02", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.3", "local_residual": "-6.05", "pct_bachelors": "28.2", "pct_white": "85.1", "urban_index": "9.85", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "72537.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jim Jordan" }, { "district_id": "OH-05", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Brian Shaver", "rep_candidate": "Bob Latta", "dem_pct": "42.56", "rep_pct": "54.26", "other_pct": "3.18", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.88", "local_residual": "-2.46", "pct_bachelors": "24.0", "pct_white": "83.9", "urban_index": "9.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64333.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Bob Latta" }, { "district_id": "OH-06", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Elizabeth Kirtley", "rep_candidate": "Michael Rulli", "dem_pct": "39.6", "rep_pct": "60.4", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-20.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-34.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.1", "local_residual": "-0.25", "pct_bachelors": "20.1", "pct_white": "85.6", "urban_index": "10.12", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "57817.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Michael Rulli" }, { "district_id": "OH-07", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Brian Poindexter", "rep_candidate": "Max Miller", "dem_pct": "54.93", "rep_pct": "45.07", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "9.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-11.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.01", "local_residual": "6.67", "pct_bachelors": "37.0", "pct_white": "86.4", "urban_index": "11.36", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "81160.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Max Miller" }, { "district_id": "OH-08", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Vanessa Enoch", "rep_candidate": "Warren Davidson", "dem_pct": "47.86", "rep_pct": "52.14", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.28", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-15.78", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.5", "local_residual": "-2.85", "pct_bachelors": "29.6", "pct_white": "74.5", "urban_index": "11.23", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "72748.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Warren Davidson" }, { "district_id": "OH-09", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Marcy Kaptur", "rep_candidate": "Derek Merrin", "dem_pct": "52.73", "rep_pct": "47.27", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.46", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.68", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.14", "local_residual": "1.79", "pct_bachelors": "26.6", "pct_white": "74.5", "urban_index": "10.82", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "62077.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Marcy Kaptur" }, { "district_id": "OH-10", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Kristina Knickerbocker", "rep_candidate": "Michael Turner", "dem_pct": "49.34", "rep_pct": "47.71", "other_pct": "2.95", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "1.68", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-7.87", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.55", "local_residual": "-4.8", "pct_bachelors": "31.1", "pct_white": "70.7", "urban_index": "11.47", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "64173.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Michael Turner" }, { "district_id": "OH-11", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Shontel Brown", "rep_candidate": "Mike Kirchner", "dem_pct": "83.53", "rep_pct": "16.47", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "67.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "67.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "55.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.6", "local_residual": "-2.75", "pct_bachelors": "31.7", "pct_white": "40.7", "urban_index": "12.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "50228.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Shontel Brown" }, { "district_id": "OH-12", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Jerrad Christian", "rep_candidate": "Troy Balderson", "dem_pct": "40.61", "rep_pct": "59.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-30.36", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.58", "local_residual": "-2.77", "pct_bachelors": "26.6", "pct_white": "88.1", "urban_index": "9.77", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "69819.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Troy Balderson" }, { "district_id": "OH-13", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Emilia Sykes", "rep_candidate": "Carey Coleman", "dem_pct": "59.98", "rep_pct": "38.42", "other_pct": "1.61", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "21.91", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Likely D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "3.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.59", "local_residual": "4.24", "pct_bachelors": "32.5", "pct_white": "75.7", "urban_index": "11.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "65001.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Emilia Sykes" }, { "district_id": "OH-14", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Maria Jukic", "rep_candidate": "David Joyce", "dem_pct": "44.97", "rep_pct": "55.03", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-20.54", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.48", "local_residual": "-3.87", "pct_bachelors": "27.0", "pct_white": "85.9", "urban_index": "10.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "65214.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "David Joyce" }, { "district_id": "OH-15", "state_abbr": "OH", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Don Leonard", "rep_candidate": "Mike Carey", "dem_pct": "51.9", "rep_pct": "45.27", "other_pct": "2.83", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "6.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.12", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.94", "local_residual": "2.6", "pct_bachelors": "32.5", "pct_white": "73.2", "urban_index": "11.37", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "71285.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Carey" }, { "district_id": "OK-01", "state_abbr": "OK", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "John Croisant", "rep_candidate": "Mark Tedford", "dem_pct": "47.68", "rep_pct": "52.32", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-5.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-27.27", "margin_pres2024": "-21.99", "swing_vs_house2024": "22.63", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.35", "local_residual": "3.01", "pct_bachelors": "32.1", "pct_white": "57.3", "urban_index": "11.54", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "64465.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "OK-02", "state_abbr": "OK", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Brandon Wade", "rep_candidate": "Josh Brecheen", "dem_pct": "28.97", "rep_pct": "67.96", "other_pct": "3.07", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-40.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-55.16", "margin_pres2024": "-56.51", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.93", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.29", "local_residual": "1.94", "pct_bachelors": "19.1", "pct_white": "60.5", "urban_index": "8.62", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "50776.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Josh Brecheen" }, { "district_id": "OK-03", "state_abbr": "OK", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Suzie Byrd", "rep_candidate": "Frank Lucas", "dem_pct": "36.03", "rep_pct": "63.97", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.94", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-46.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.49", "local_residual": "4.14", "pct_bachelors": "21.2", "pct_white": "60.1", "urban_index": "9.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "54397.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Frank Lucas" }, { "district_id": "OK-04", "state_abbr": "OK", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Mitchell Jacob", "rep_candidate": "Tom Cole", "dem_pct": "39.21", "rep_pct": "57.9", "other_pct": "2.89", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-19.25", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-39.54", "margin_pres2024": "-33.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.3", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.64", "local_residual": "0.3", "pct_bachelors": "26.9", "pct_white": "64.0", "urban_index": "10.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62067.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tom Cole" }, { "district_id": "OK-05", "state_abbr": "OK", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Jena Nelson", "rep_candidate": "Stephanie Bice", "dem_pct": "48.22", "rep_pct": "49.49", "other_pct": "1.52", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-21.38", "margin_pres2024": "-18.11", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.82", "local_residual": "2.47", "pct_bachelors": "37.0", "pct_white": "62.1", "urban_index": "11.04", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "68269.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Stephanie Bice" }, { "district_id": "OR-01", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Suzanne Bonamici", "rep_candidate": "Barbara Kahl", "dem_pct": "69.67", "rep_pct": "30.33", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "39.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "41.9", "margin_pres2024": "39.11", "swing_vs_house2024": "-2.56", "swing_vs_pres2024": "0.23", "local_residual": "-14.11", "pct_bachelors": "46.3", "pct_white": "65.5", "urban_index": "11.62", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "89182.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Suzanne Bonamici" }, { "district_id": "OR-02", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Chris Beck", "rep_candidate": "Cliff Bentz", "dem_pct": "38.33", "rep_pct": "61.67", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-23.34", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-32.13", "margin_pres2024": "-27.88", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.79", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.54", "local_residual": "-9.81", "pct_bachelors": "23.1", "pct_white": "75.4", "urban_index": "8.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "62171.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Cliff Bentz" }, { "district_id": "OR-03", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Maxine Dexter", "rep_candidate": "Loran Ayles", "dem_pct": "76.29", "rep_pct": "23.71", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "64.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "52.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "53.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "45.72", "margin_pres2024": "47.62", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.86", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.96", "local_residual": "-9.38", "pct_bachelors": "40.3", "pct_white": "64.5", "urban_index": "12.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "80939.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Maxine Dexter" }, { "district_id": "OR-04", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Val Hoyle", "rep_candidate": "Monique DeSpain", "dem_pct": "54.08", "rep_pct": "42.92", "other_pct": "3.0", "pct_reported": "74.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "11.51", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.16", "margin_pres2024": "12.45", "swing_vs_house2024": "3.34", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-0.95", "local_residual": "-15.29", "pct_bachelors": "31.9", "pct_white": "79.0", "urban_index": "10.15", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "61845.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Val Hoyle" }, { "district_id": "OR-05", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Janelle Bynum", "rep_candidate": "Patti Adair", "dem_pct": "54.17", "rep_pct": "43.83", "other_pct": "2.0", "pct_reported": "81.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.55", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "Solid D", "sabato": "Safe D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "3.03", "margin_pres2024": "8.81", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.52", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.74", "local_residual": "-12.6", "pct_bachelors": "36.9", "pct_white": "78.8", "urban_index": "10.98", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "86573.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Janelle Bynum" }, { "district_id": "OR-06", "state_abbr": "OR", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Andrea Salinas", "rep_candidate": "David Russ", "dem_pct": "57.98", "rep_pct": "42.02", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "61.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "6.86", "margin_pres2024": "11.75", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.1", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.21", "local_residual": "-10.13", "pct_bachelors": "34.3", "pct_white": "66.7", "urban_index": "11.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "78442.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Andrea Salinas" }, { "district_id": "PA-01", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Bob Harvie", "rep_candidate": "Brian Fitzpatrick", "dem_pct": "52.74", "rep_pct": "47.26", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "5.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "D+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-12.8", "margin_pres2024": "0.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.28", "swing_vs_pres2024": "5.16", "local_residual": "-9.19", "pct_bachelors": "43.2", "pct_white": "79.9", "urban_index": "11.72", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "104881.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brian Fitzpatrick" }, { "district_id": "PA-02", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Brendan Boyle", "rep_candidate": "Jessica Arriaga", "dem_pct": "80.51", "rep_pct": "19.49", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "79.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "61.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "61.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "42.88", "margin_pres2024": "36.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.14", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.85", "local_residual": "10.51", "pct_bachelors": "26.8", "pct_white": "37.4", "urban_index": "13.48", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "53536.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Brendan Boyle" }, { "district_id": "PA-03", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Christopher Rabb", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "93.62", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "6.38", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "87.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "78.26", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "41.5", "pct_white": "32.2", "urban_index": "13.64", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "60400.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "PA-04", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Madeleine Dean", "rep_candidate": "Aurora Stuski", "dem_pct": "67.1", "rep_pct": "32.9", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "34.2", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "34.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "18.14", "margin_pres2024": "15.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.06", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.23", "local_residual": "3.89", "pct_bachelors": "47.6", "pct_white": "76.1", "urban_index": "11.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "103922.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Madeleine Dean" }, { "district_id": "PA-05", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Mary Gay Scanlon", "rep_candidate": "Nicholas Manganaro", "dem_pct": "72.02", "rep_pct": "27.98", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "44.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "44.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "30.58", "margin_pres2024": "28.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.46", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.11", "local_residual": "0.76", "pct_bachelors": "41.2", "pct_white": "58.1", "urban_index": "12.71", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "79416.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mary Gay Scanlon" }, { "district_id": "PA-06", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Chrissy Houlahan", "rep_candidate": "Martin Young", "dem_pct": "64.31", "rep_pct": "35.69", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "86.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "28.62", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "12.4", "margin_pres2024": "11.52", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.22", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.1", "local_residual": "2.76", "pct_bachelors": "47.7", "pct_white": "69.2", "urban_index": "11.36", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "98751.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Chrissy Houlahan" }, { "district_id": "PA-07", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Robert Brooks", "rep_candidate": "Ryan Mackenzie", "dem_pct": "56.09", "rep_pct": "43.91", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "12.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+1", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-1.0", "margin_pres2024": "-3.24", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.42", "local_residual": "1.08", "pct_bachelors": "31.1", "pct_white": "68.6", "urban_index": "11.44", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "72660.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ryan Mackenzie" }, { "district_id": "PA-08", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Paige Cognetti", "rep_candidate": "Robert Bresnahan", "dem_pct": "54.37", "rep_pct": "45.63", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.74", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-1.62", "margin_pres2024": "-8.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.36", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.31", "local_residual": "2.96", "pct_bachelors": "26.4", "pct_white": "74.6", "urban_index": "10.56", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "63172.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Robert Bresnahan" }, { "district_id": "PA-09", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Rachel Wallace", "rep_candidate": "Daniel Meuser", "dem_pct": "38.28", "rep_pct": "61.72", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "84.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-23.44", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-41.02", "margin_pres2024": "-38.28", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.58", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.84", "local_residual": "0.5", "pct_bachelors": "22.2", "pct_white": "87.6", "urban_index": "9.61", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "65710.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Daniel Meuser" }, { "district_id": "PA-10", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Janelle Stelson", "rep_candidate": "Scott Perry", "dem_pct": "55.03", "rep_pct": "44.97", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.06", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-1.26", "margin_pres2024": "-5.29", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.32", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.35", "local_residual": "1.0", "pct_bachelors": "33.2", "pct_white": "71.2", "urban_index": "11.25", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "75032.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Scott Perry" }, { "district_id": "PA-11", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Nancy Mannion", "rep_candidate": "Lloyd Smucker", "dem_pct": "44.44", "rep_pct": "55.56", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "90.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-25.8", "margin_pres2024": "-21.57", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.68", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.45", "local_residual": "-3.9", "pct_bachelors": "29.4", "pct_white": "81.8", "urban_index": "10.9", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82321.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Lloyd Smucker" }, { "district_id": "PA-12", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Summer Lee", "rep_candidate": "James Hayes", "dem_pct": "65.39", "rep_pct": "34.61", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "79.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "30.78", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "12.82", "margin_pres2024": "19.37", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.41", "local_residual": "-2.94", "pct_bachelors": "39.7", "pct_white": "72.9", "urban_index": "12.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "68078.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Summer Lee" }, { "district_id": "PA-13", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Elizabeth Farnham", "rep_candidate": "John Joyce", "dem_pct": "32.43", "rep_pct": "67.57", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-35.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-48.4", "margin_pres2024": "-45.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.26", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.77", "local_residual": "-3.58", "pct_bachelors": "21.1", "pct_white": "89.6", "urban_index": "9.46", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "64430.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "John Joyce" }, { "district_id": "PA-14", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "David Bradstock", "rep_candidate": "Guy Reschenthaler", "dem_pct": "42.38", "rep_pct": "57.62", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "79.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-15.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-33.14", "margin_pres2024": "-33.59", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.9", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.35", "local_residual": "4.0", "pct_bachelors": "26.1", "pct_white": "90.4", "urban_index": "9.94", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "62622.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Guy Reschenthaler" }, { "district_id": "PA-15", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Ray Bilger", "rep_candidate": "Glenn Thompson", "dem_pct": "36.07", "rep_pct": "63.93", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "82.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-27.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-42.94", "margin_pres2024": "-38.28", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.08", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.42", "local_residual": "-3.93", "pct_bachelors": "24.5", "pct_white": "90.4", "urban_index": "8.94", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "60094.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Glenn Thompson" }, { "district_id": "PA-16", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "Justin Wagner", "rep_candidate": "Mike Kelly", "dem_pct": "46.06", "rep_pct": "53.94", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "84.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-27.3", "margin_pres2024": "-22.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.42", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.09", "local_residual": "0.74", "pct_bachelors": "29.0", "pct_white": "87.0", "urban_index": "10.1", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "61715.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mike Kelly" }, { "district_id": "PA-17", "state_abbr": "PA", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Christopher Deluzio", "rep_candidate": "Anthony Guy", "dem_pct": "62.82", "rep_pct": "37.18", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "25.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "26.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "7.76", "margin_pres2024": "5.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.88", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.08", "local_residual": "5.73", "pct_bachelors": "43.3", "pct_white": "81.9", "urban_index": "11.57", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "77014.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Christopher Deluzio" }, { "district_id": "RI-01", "state_abbr": "RI", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Gabriel Amo", "rep_candidate": "Kellie Keenan", "dem_pct": "68.46", "rep_pct": "27.74", "other_pct": "3.8", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "42.33", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "41.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "32.44", "margin_pres2024": "22.66", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.88", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.67", "local_residual": "5.32", "pct_bachelors": "36.4", "pct_white": "63.9", "urban_index": "12.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "78966.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Gabriel Amo" }, { "district_id": "RI-02", "state_abbr": "RI", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Seth Magaziner", "rep_candidate": "Victor Mellor", "dem_pct": "61.9", "rep_pct": "38.1", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "23.8", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "24.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "16.62", "margin_pres2024": "6.93", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.18", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.87", "local_residual": "2.52", "pct_bachelors": "36.1", "pct_white": "73.5", "urban_index": "11.52", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "84751.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Seth Magaziner" }, { "district_id": "SC-01", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Nancy Lacore", "rep_candidate": "Jenny Honeycutt", "dem_pct": "49.69", "rep_pct": "48.67", "other_pct": "1.64", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "1.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Tilt R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-16.65", "margin_pres2024": "-13.21", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.69", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.25", "local_residual": "-0.1", "pct_bachelors": "41.1", "pct_white": "68.2", "urban_index": "10.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "85282.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "SC-02", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Zyon Khalifa", "rep_candidate": "Joe Wilson", "dem_pct": "48.87", "rep_pct": "49.89", "other_pct": "1.24", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.03", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-19.32", "margin_pres2024": "-14.12", "swing_vs_house2024": "18.29", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.09", "local_residual": "-1.26", "pct_bachelors": "34.9", "pct_white": "61.1", "urban_index": "10.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "71562.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Joe Wilson" }, { "district_id": "SC-03", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Eunice Lehmacher", "rep_candidate": "Sheri Biggs", "dem_pct": "34.4", "rep_pct": "63.73", "other_pct": "1.87", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-29.89", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-29.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-47.81", "margin_pres2024": "-43.62", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.92", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.74", "local_residual": "-0.61", "pct_bachelors": "25.3", "pct_white": "71.7", "urban_index": "9.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "56693.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Sheri Biggs" }, { "district_id": "SC-04", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Courtney McClain", "rep_candidate": "William Timmons", "dem_pct": "45.69", "rep_pct": "51.77", "other_pct": "2.54", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-23.21", "margin_pres2024": "-23.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.97", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.73", "local_residual": "3.38", "pct_bachelors": "34.9", "pct_white": "64.1", "urban_index": "11.18", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "64879.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "William Timmons" }, { "district_id": "SC-05", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Mallory Dittmer", "rep_candidate": "Wes Climer", "dem_pct": "47.14", "rep_pct": "52.86", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-5.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-27.21", "margin_pres2024": "-23.09", "swing_vs_house2024": "21.49", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.37", "local_residual": "3.03", "pct_bachelors": "27.7", "pct_white": "64.1", "urban_index": "10.07", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "66451.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "SC-06", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Jim Clyburn", "rep_candidate": "John Peterson", "dem_pct": "69.43", "rep_pct": "30.57", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "23.67", "margin_pres2024": "23.05", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.19", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.81", "local_residual": "1.46", "pct_bachelors": "27.8", "pct_white": "41.6", "urban_index": "10.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "51364.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jim Clyburn" }, { "district_id": "SC-07", "state_abbr": "SC", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "John Vincent", "rep_candidate": "Russell Fry", "dem_pct": "43.25", "rep_pct": "56.75", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-13.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-14.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-29.97", "margin_pres2024": "-26.63", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.47", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.13", "local_residual": "-1.22", "pct_bachelors": "22.9", "pct_white": "63.9", "urban_index": "9.83", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "53313.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Russell Fry" }, { "district_id": "SD-AL", "state_abbr": "SD", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Nicole Gronli", "rep_candidate": "Marty Jackley", "dem_pct": "35.99", "rep_pct": "64.01", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-28.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-28.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-44.08", "margin_pres2024": "-29.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "16.06", "swing_vs_pres2024": "1.87", "local_residual": "-12.48", "pct_bachelors": "30.4", "pct_white": "79.6", "urban_index": "8.97", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "69728.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TN-01", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Kristi Burke", "rep_candidate": "Diana Harshbarger", "dem_pct": "30.03", "rep_pct": "66.85", "other_pct": "3.12", "pct_reported": "89.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-38.01", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-37.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-58.44", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.43", "local_residual": "6.08", "pct_bachelors": "22.5", "pct_white": "87.9", "urban_index": "9.87", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "54716.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Diana Harshbarger" }, { "district_id": "TN-02", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Michaela Barnett", "rep_candidate": "Tim Burchett", "dem_pct": "41.83", "rep_pct": "57.09", "other_pct": "1.08", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-15.43", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-34.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.89", "local_residual": "4.55", "pct_bachelors": "32.7", "pct_white": "82.1", "urban_index": "10.81", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "66809.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Tim Burchett" }, { "district_id": "TN-03", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Anna Golladay", "rep_candidate": "Chuck Fleischmann", "dem_pct": "40.83", "rep_pct": "57.0", "other_pct": "2.17", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-16.53", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-36.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.68", "local_residual": "5.33", "pct_bachelors": "27.4", "pct_white": "77.8", "urban_index": "10.26", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "68127.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Chuck Fleischmann" }, { "district_id": "TN-04", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Victoria Broderick", "rep_candidate": "Scott DesJarlais", "dem_pct": "48.87", "rep_pct": "48.73", "other_pct": "2.4", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "0.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "0.1", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-24.28", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.43", "local_residual": "10.08", "pct_bachelors": "24.4", "pct_white": "75.9", "urban_index": "9.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "65227.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Scott DesJarlais" }, { "district_id": "TN-05", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Chaz Molder", "rep_candidate": "Charlie Hatcher", "dem_pct": "46.72", "rep_pct": "51.66", "other_pct": "1.62", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-5.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-5.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.37", "local_residual": "4.03", "pct_bachelors": "46.0", "pct_white": "69.2", "urban_index": "10.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "86017.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TN-06", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Mike Croley", "rep_candidate": "Johnny Garrett", "dem_pct": "47.51", "rep_pct": "50.77", "other_pct": "1.72", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.32", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-26.87", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.55", "local_residual": "9.2", "pct_bachelors": "27.1", "pct_white": "77.7", "urban_index": "10.1", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64687.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TN-07", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Darden Copeland", "rep_candidate": "Matt Van Epps", "dem_pct": "48.1", "rep_pct": "50.27", "other_pct": "1.63", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.21", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.73", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.52", "local_residual": "6.17", "pct_bachelors": "32.3", "pct_white": "69.4", "urban_index": "10.24", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "70095.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Matt Van Epps" }, { "district_id": "TN-08", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Heidi Kuhn", "rep_candidate": "David Kustoff", "dem_pct": "47.17", "rep_pct": "50.82", "other_pct": "2.01", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.72", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-20.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.71", "local_residual": "2.36", "pct_bachelors": "28.6", "pct_white": "72.9", "urban_index": "9.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "63678.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "David Kustoff" }, { "district_id": "TN-09", "state_abbr": "TN", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Justin Pearson", "rep_candidate": "Brent Taylor", "dem_pct": "48.5", "rep_pct": "49.63", "other_pct": "1.87", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.15", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.43", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.28", "local_residual": "5.93", "pct_bachelors": "26.8", "pct_white": "25.3", "urban_index": "11.8", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "53183.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-01", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Yolanda Prince", "rep_candidate": "Nathaniel Moran", "dem_pct": "30.96", "rep_pct": "69.04", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-38.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-38.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-49.9", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.82", "local_residual": "-2.53", "pct_bachelors": "21.9", "pct_white": "60.0", "urban_index": "9.62", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "60999.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Nathaniel Moran" }, { "district_id": "TX-02", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Shaun Finnie", "rep_candidate": "Steve Toth", "dem_pct": "49.02", "rep_pct": "50.98", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-2.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.14", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.18", "local_residual": "6.83", "pct_bachelors": "39.3", "pct_white": "49.4", "urban_index": "11.66", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "92141.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-03", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Evan Hunt", "rep_candidate": "Keith Self", "dem_pct": "47.26", "rep_pct": "52.74", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-5.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.98", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.5", "local_residual": "4.16", "pct_bachelors": "48.5", "pct_white": "56.0", "urban_index": "11.58", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "114577.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Keith Self" }, { "district_id": "TX-04", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jason Pearce", "rep_candidate": "Pat Fallon", "dem_pct": "43.94", "rep_pct": "56.06", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-25.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.04", "local_residual": "-1.31", "pct_bachelors": "43.0", "pct_white": "59.5", "urban_index": "10.85", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "92686.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Pat Fallon" }, { "district_id": "TX-05", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Chelsey Hockett", "rep_candidate": "Lance Gooden", "dem_pct": "48.53", "rep_pct": "51.47", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.94", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.84", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.9", "local_residual": "4.56", "pct_bachelors": "22.6", "pct_white": "47.9", "urban_index": "10.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "74111.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Lance Gooden" }, { "district_id": "TX-06", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Danny Minton", "rep_candidate": "Jake Ellzey", "dem_pct": "48.51", "rep_pct": "51.49", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-23.27", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.29", "local_residual": "5.95", "pct_bachelors": "24.2", "pct_white": "44.9", "urban_index": "10.6", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "75003.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Jake Ellzey" }, { "district_id": "TX-07", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Lizzie Fletcher", "rep_candidate": "Alexander Hale", "dem_pct": "70.84", "rep_pct": "27.54", "other_pct": "1.61", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "44.01", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "43.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "24.09", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.92", "local_residual": "5.57", "pct_bachelors": "49.1", "pct_white": "27.4", "urban_index": "12.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "70704.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Lizzie Fletcher" }, { "district_id": "TX-08", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Laura Jones", "rep_candidate": "Jessica Steinmann", "dem_pct": "46.79", "rep_pct": "53.21", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.42", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-27.99", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.57", "local_residual": "7.23", "pct_bachelors": "31.5", "pct_white": "45.1", "urban_index": "11.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "83466.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-09", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Leticia Gutierrez", "rep_candidate": "Alex Mealer", "dem_pct": "57.55", "rep_pct": "42.45", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+9", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-19.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "35.06", "local_residual": "20.72", "pct_bachelors": "31.0", "pct_white": "12.4", "urban_index": "12.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "63597.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-10", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Caitlin Rourk", "rep_candidate": "Chris Gober", "dem_pct": "46.23", "rep_pct": "53.77", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.54", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.94", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.4", "local_residual": "1.05", "pct_bachelors": "39.6", "pct_white": "56.0", "urban_index": "10.15", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "80035.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-11", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "Claire Reynolds", "rep_candidate": "August Pfluger", "dem_pct": "40.5", "rep_pct": "59.5", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-19.0", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-34.77", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.77", "local_residual": "1.42", "pct_bachelors": "23.4", "pct_white": "43.7", "urban_index": "10.55", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "62147.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "August Pfluger" }, { "district_id": "TX-12", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "12", "dem_candidate": "Angela Prilliman", "rep_candidate": "Craig Goldman", "dem_pct": "46.88", "rep_pct": "53.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-6.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-24.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.91", "local_residual": "3.56", "pct_bachelors": "33.7", "pct_white": "54.9", "urban_index": "11.67", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "78999.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Craig Goldman" }, { "district_id": "TX-13", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "13", "dem_candidate": "Mark Nair", "rep_candidate": "Ronny Jackson", "dem_pct": "34.74", "rep_pct": "65.26", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-30.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-31.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-46.67", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.15", "local_residual": "1.8", "pct_bachelors": "24.9", "pct_white": "58.1", "urban_index": "9.96", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "64369.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Ronny Jackson" }, { "district_id": "TX-14", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "14", "dem_candidate": "Thurman Bartie", "rep_candidate": "Randy Weber", "dem_pct": "45.99", "rep_pct": "54.01", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-8.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-24.58", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.56", "local_residual": "2.21", "pct_bachelors": "25.1", "pct_white": "52.7", "urban_index": "10.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "68463.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Randy Weber" }, { "district_id": "TX-15", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "15", "dem_candidate": "Bobby Pulido", "rep_candidate": "Monica De La Cruz", "dem_pct": "62.32", "rep_pct": "37.68", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "24.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-18.02", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "42.66", "local_residual": "28.31", "pct_bachelors": "21.8", "pct_white": "15.3", "urban_index": "10.91", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "55382.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Monica De La Cruz" }, { "district_id": "TX-16", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "16", "dem_candidate": "Veronica Escobar", "rep_candidate": "Adam Bauman", "dem_pct": "70.76", "rep_pct": "29.24", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "41.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "42.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "16.64", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.88", "local_residual": "10.54", "pct_bachelors": "26.1", "pct_white": "11.7", "urban_index": "11.99", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "53477.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Veronica Escobar" }, { "district_id": "TX-17", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "17", "dem_candidate": "Casey Shepard", "rep_candidate": "Pete Sessions", "dem_pct": "46.44", "rep_pct": "53.56", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.95", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.83", "local_residual": "0.48", "pct_bachelors": "25.4", "pct_white": "53.0", "urban_index": "10.03", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "63266.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Pete Sessions" }, { "district_id": "TX-18", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "18", "dem_candidate": "Christian Menefee", "rep_candidate": "Ronald Whitfield", "dem_pct": "86.04", "rep_pct": "13.96", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "72.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "72.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "55.73", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.35", "local_residual": "2.01", "pct_bachelors": "26.8", "pct_white": "16.7", "urban_index": "12.61", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "58932.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Christian Menefee" }, { "district_id": "TX-19", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "19", "dem_candidate": "Kyle Rable", "rep_candidate": "Tom Sell", "dem_pct": "30.52", "rep_pct": "69.48", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-38.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-39.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-52.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.2", "local_residual": "-1.14", "pct_bachelors": "24.5", "pct_white": "50.2", "urban_index": "9.97", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "58951.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-20", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "20", "dem_candidate": "Joaquin Castro", "rep_candidate": "Edgardo Baez", "dem_pct": "77.61", "rep_pct": "22.39", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "88.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "55.22", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "55.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "28.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "26.33", "local_residual": "11.99", "pct_bachelors": "24.6", "pct_white": "17.6", "urban_index": "12.53", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "56708.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Joaquin Castro" }, { "district_id": "TX-21", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "21", "dem_candidate": "Kristin Hook", "rep_candidate": "Mark Teixeira", "dem_pct": "45.48", "rep_pct": "54.52", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.04", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.08", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.04", "local_residual": "-1.3", "pct_bachelors": "44.8", "pct_white": "58.9", "urban_index": "10.73", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "88786.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-22", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "22", "dem_candidate": "Marquette Greene-Scott", "rep_candidate": "Trever Nehls", "dem_pct": "48.18", "rep_pct": "51.82", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-3.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.73", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.09", "local_residual": "4.74", "pct_bachelors": "44.7", "pct_white": "42.3", "urban_index": "11.31", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "100510.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-23", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "23", "dem_candidate": "Katy Stout", "rep_candidate": "Brandon Herrera", "dem_pct": "52.08", "rep_pct": "44.03", "other_pct": "3.89", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+7", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-14.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.34", "local_residual": "9.0", "pct_bachelors": "29.7", "pct_white": "28.4", "urban_index": "9.96", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "71327.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-24", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "24", "dem_candidate": "Kevin Burge", "rep_candidate": "Beth Van Duyne", "dem_pct": "46.57", "rep_pct": "53.43", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-6.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-16.39", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.53", "local_residual": "-4.81", "pct_bachelors": "52.8", "pct_white": "61.6", "urban_index": "12.45", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "106888.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Beth Van Duyne" }, { "district_id": "TX-25", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "25", "dem_candidate": "Dione Sims", "rep_candidate": "Roger Williams", "dem_pct": "46.26", "rep_pct": "53.74", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-24.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.86", "local_residual": "2.52", "pct_bachelors": "30.1", "pct_white": "58.4", "urban_index": "10.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "73257.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Roger Williams" }, { "district_id": "TX-26", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "26", "dem_candidate": "Steven Shook", "rep_candidate": "Brandon Gill", "dem_pct": "44.18", "rep_pct": "54.54", "other_pct": "1.29", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-10.49", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-24.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.65", "local_residual": "-0.69", "pct_bachelors": "45.9", "pct_white": "56.6", "urban_index": "11.37", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "105363.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Brandon Gill" }, { "district_id": "TX-27", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "27", "dem_candidate": "Tanya Lloyd", "rep_candidate": "Michael Cloud", "dem_pct": "49.31", "rep_pct": "50.69", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-1.38", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "20.08", "local_residual": "5.73", "pct_bachelors": "19.9", "pct_white": "37.9", "urban_index": "10.03", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "61819.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Michael Cloud" }, { "district_id": "TX-28", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "28", "dem_candidate": "Henry Cuellar", "rep_candidate": "Tano Tijerina", "dem_pct": "66.35", "rep_pct": "29.13", "other_pct": "4.52", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "38.98", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "37.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Lean D", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "49.45", "local_residual": "35.1", "pct_bachelors": "19.9", "pct_white": "17.2", "urban_index": "11.01", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "60356.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Henry Cuellar" }, { "district_id": "TX-29", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "29", "dem_candidate": "Sylvia Garcia", "rep_candidate": "Martha Fierro", "dem_pct": "79.94", "rep_pct": "20.06", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "59.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "60.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "30.85", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "29.03", "local_residual": "14.69", "pct_bachelors": "11.8", "pct_white": "8.3", "urban_index": "12.45", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "50461.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Sylvia Garcia" }, { "district_id": "TX-30", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "30", "dem_candidate": "Frederick Haynes", "rep_candidate": "Everett Jackson", "dem_pct": "82.64", "rep_pct": "17.36", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "65.28", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "65.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "47.8", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.48", "local_residual": "3.13", "pct_bachelors": "28.9", "pct_white": "17.7", "urban_index": "12.27", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "67465.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-31", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "31", "dem_candidate": "Justin Early", "rep_candidate": "John Carter", "dem_pct": "44.83", "rep_pct": "53.78", "other_pct": "1.39", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.08", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-22.15", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.07", "local_residual": "-1.28", "pct_bachelors": "36.5", "pct_white": "59.1", "urban_index": "10.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "89116.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "John Carter" }, { "district_id": "TX-32", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "32", "dem_candidate": "Dan Barrios", "rep_candidate": "Jace Yarbrough", "dem_pct": "48.55", "rep_pct": "51.45", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.9", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-18.12", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.22", "local_residual": "0.87", "pct_bachelors": "38.9", "pct_white": "32.2", "urban_index": "12.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "65935.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-33", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "33", "dem_candidate": "Colin Allred", "rep_candidate": "Patrick Gillespie", "dem_pct": "78.57", "rep_pct": "21.43", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "57.14", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "57.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "33.34", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.8", "local_residual": "9.45", "pct_bachelors": "22.0", "pct_white": "13.2", "urban_index": "12.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "57463.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-34", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "34", "dem_candidate": "Vicente Gonzalez", "rep_candidate": "Eric Flores", "dem_pct": "55.6", "rep_pct": "39.76", "other_pct": "2.34", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "16.61", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "16.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.22", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "26.83", "local_residual": "12.49", "pct_bachelors": "17.8", "pct_white": "7.9", "urban_index": "11.12", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "48801.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Vicente Gonzalez" }, { "district_id": "TX-35", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "35", "dem_candidate": "Johnny Garcia", "rep_candidate": "Carlos De La Cruz", "dem_pct": "55.43", "rep_pct": "44.57", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "94.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.86", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Toss-up", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+4", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-10.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.42", "local_residual": "7.07", "pct_bachelors": "29.6", "pct_white": "26.2", "urban_index": "11.95", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "71075.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "TX-36", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "36", "dem_candidate": "Rhonda Hart", "rep_candidate": "Brian Babin", "dem_pct": "46.44", "rep_pct": "53.56", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.12", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-25.31", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.19", "local_residual": "3.84", "pct_bachelors": "23.4", "pct_white": "49.3", "urban_index": "10.65", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "67663.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Brian Babin" }, { "district_id": "TX-37", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "37", "dem_candidate": "Greg Casar", "rep_candidate": "Lauren Pena", "dem_pct": "83.75", "rep_pct": "16.25", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "67.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "68.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "57.7", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.8", "local_residual": "-4.55", "pct_bachelors": "60.3", "pct_white": "52.5", "urban_index": "12.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "91114.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Greg Casar" }, { "district_id": "TX-38", "state_abbr": "TX", "district": "38", "dem_candidate": "Melissa McDonough", "rep_candidate": "Jon Bonck", "dem_pct": "47.33", "rep_pct": "51.54", "other_pct": "1.13", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-4.26", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "17.04", "local_residual": "2.69", "pct_bachelors": "49.9", "pct_white": "50.1", "urban_index": "12.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "93861.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "UT-01", "state_abbr": "UT", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Ben McAdams", "rep_candidate": "Riley Owen", "dem_pct": "71.87", "rep_pct": "24.86", "other_pct": "2.01", "pct_reported": "68.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "48.6", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "47.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "24.32", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "24.28", "local_residual": "9.93", "pct_bachelors": "36.9", "pct_white": "78.7", "urban_index": "11.14", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "86951.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "UT-02", "state_abbr": "UT", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Peter Crosby", "rep_candidate": "Blake Moore", "dem_pct": "43.19", "rep_pct": "49.79", "other_pct": "7.02", "pct_reported": "69.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-7.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-29.92", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.82", "local_residual": "8.48", "pct_bachelors": "32.0", "pct_white": "70.8", "urban_index": "10.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "80789.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Blake Moore" }, { "district_id": "UT-03", "state_abbr": "UT", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Kent Udell", "rep_candidate": "Celeste Maloy", "dem_pct": "35.41", "rep_pct": "57.93", "other_pct": "6.66", "pct_reported": "58.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-24.13", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-23.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-42.41", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "18.29", "local_residual": "3.94", "pct_bachelors": "42.5", "pct_white": "77.8", "urban_index": "11.24", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "87193.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Celeste Maloy" }, { "district_id": "UT-04", "state_abbr": "UT", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Johny Larsen", "rep_candidate": "Mike Kennedy", "dem_pct": "41.59", "rep_pct": "51.89", "other_pct": "6.52", "pct_reported": "55.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.02", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-10.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "new-2026", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-33.44", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "22.42", "local_residual": "8.08", "pct_bachelors": "33.5", "pct_white": "74.2", "urban_index": "11.7", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "100006.0", "demo_valid": "N", "incumbent_name": "Mike Kennedy" }, { "district_id": "VA-01", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Shannon Taylor", "rep_candidate": "Rob Wittman", "dem_pct": "50.6", "rep_pct": "49.4", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "1.2", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Toss-up", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt R", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-12.8", "margin_pres2024": "-5.0", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.0", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.2", "local_residual": "-8.14", "pct_bachelors": "46.9", "pct_white": "70.8", "urban_index": "10.69", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "99057.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rob Wittman" }, { "district_id": "VA-02", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Elaine Luria", "rep_candidate": "Jen Kiggans", "dem_pct": "53.13", "rep_pct": "44.62", "other_pct": "2.25", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "8.71", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "EVEN", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-3.93", "margin_pres2024": "-0.25", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.64", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.96", "local_residual": "-5.39", "pct_bachelors": "37.4", "pct_white": "58.7", "urban_index": "11.28", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "83535.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jen Kiggans" }, { "district_id": "VA-03", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Bobby Scott", "rep_candidate": "Edwin Rivera", "dem_pct": "72.74", "rep_pct": "24.09", "other_pct": "3.17", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "50.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "49.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "40.19", "margin_pres2024": "35.17", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.05", "swing_vs_pres2024": "15.07", "local_residual": "0.72", "pct_bachelors": "28.5", "pct_white": "38.9", "urban_index": "12.04", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "63075.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bobby Scott" }, { "district_id": "VA-04", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Jennifer McClellan", "rep_candidate": "Robert Murray", "dem_pct": "72.19", "rep_pct": "26.23", "other_pct": "1.58", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "46.7", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "46.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "34.98", "margin_pres2024": "33.18", "swing_vs_house2024": "11.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.52", "local_residual": "-0.83", "pct_bachelors": "31.1", "pct_white": "42.1", "urban_index": "11.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "66086.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Jennifer McClellan" }, { "district_id": "VA-05", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Tom Perriello", "rep_candidate": "John McGuire III", "dem_pct": "47.97", "rep_pct": "50.43", "other_pct": "1.6", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-2.5", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-3.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+6", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-15.06", "margin_pres2024": "-12.4", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.56", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.9", "local_residual": "-4.44", "pct_bachelors": "32.7", "pct_white": "68.4", "urban_index": "9.33", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "63384.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "John McGuire III" }, { "district_id": "VA-06", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Beth Macy", "rep_candidate": "Ben Cline", "dem_pct": "44.42", "rep_pct": "55.58", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-11.16", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-28.93", "margin_pres2024": "-24.16", "swing_vs_house2024": "17.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "13.0", "local_residual": "-1.35", "pct_bachelors": "27.4", "pct_white": "78.2", "urban_index": "10.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67623.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Ben Cline" }, { "district_id": "VA-07", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Eugene Vindman", "rep_candidate": "Doug Ollivant", "dem_pct": "59.8", "rep_pct": "37.82", "other_pct": "2.38", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "22.52", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "22.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Likely D", "sabato": "Safe D", "inside_elections": "Solid D", "pvi_2026": "D+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "2.65", "margin_pres2024": "2.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "19.87", "swing_vs_pres2024": "19.6", "local_residual": "5.26", "pct_bachelors": "36.8", "pct_white": "50.8", "urban_index": "10.88", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "103589.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Eugene Vindman" }, { "district_id": "VA-08", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Don Beyer", "rep_candidate": "Tony Sabio", "dem_pct": "79.53", "rep_pct": "18.05", "other_pct": "2.42", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "63.0", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "62.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "48.72", "margin_pres2024": "50.91", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.28", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.1", "local_residual": "-2.25", "pct_bachelors": "65.1", "pct_white": "49.4", "urban_index": "13.07", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Urban", "median_income": "122460.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Don Beyer" }, { "district_id": "VA-09", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Joy Powers", "rep_candidate": "Howard Griffith", "dem_pct": "33.91", "rep_pct": "66.09", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-32.18", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-32.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-45.24", "margin_pres2024": "-44.42", "swing_vs_house2024": "13.06", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.24", "local_residual": "-2.1", "pct_bachelors": "23.1", "pct_white": "86.1", "urban_index": "9.08", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "54260.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Howard Griffith" }, { "district_id": "VA-10", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Suhas Subramanyam", "rep_candidate": "Dave Beckwith", "dem_pct": "61.5", "rep_pct": "36.64", "other_pct": "1.86", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "25.33", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "25.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "4.57", "margin_pres2024": "8.58", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.76", "swing_vs_pres2024": "16.75", "local_residual": "2.41", "pct_bachelors": "54.4", "pct_white": "52.7", "urban_index": "11.35", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "152685.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Suhas Subramanyam" }, { "district_id": "VA-11", "state_abbr": "VA", "district": "11", "dem_candidate": "James Walkinshaw", "rep_candidate": "Arthur Purves", "dem_pct": "73.93", "rep_pct": "24.81", "other_pct": "1.26", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "49.75", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "49.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "33.98", "margin_pres2024": "35.3", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.77", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.45", "local_residual": "0.1", "pct_bachelors": "67.5", "pct_white": "48.8", "urban_index": "12.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "152783.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "James Walkinshaw" }, { "district_id": "VT-AL", "state_abbr": "VT", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Becca Balint", "rep_candidate": "Gerald Malloy", "dem_pct": "65.8", "rep_pct": "31.09", "other_pct": "1.44", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "35.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "35.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "35.3", "margin_pres2024": "32.77", "swing_vs_house2024": "0.53", "swing_vs_pres2024": "3.05", "local_residual": "-11.29", "pct_bachelors": "41.7", "pct_white": "89.1", "urban_index": "9.05", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "73991.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Becca Balint" }, { "district_id": "WA-01", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Suzan DelBene", "rep_candidate": "Mary Silva", "dem_pct": "68.14", "rep_pct": "31.86", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "61.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "36.28", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "36.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "26.35", "margin_pres2024": "29.72", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.93", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.56", "local_residual": "-7.79", "pct_bachelors": "50.2", "pct_white": "59.7", "urban_index": "12.2", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "125412.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Suzan DelBene" }, { "district_id": "WA-02", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Rick Larsen", "rep_candidate": "Edwin Feller", "dem_pct": "68.15", "rep_pct": "31.85", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "65.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "36.3", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "36.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "28.06", "margin_pres2024": "24.44", "swing_vs_house2024": "8.24", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.86", "local_residual": "-2.49", "pct_bachelors": "34.6", "pct_white": "69.0", "urban_index": "10.89", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82997.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Rick Larsen" }, { "district_id": "WA-03", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez", "rep_candidate": "John Braun", "dem_pct": "55.44", "rep_pct": "44.56", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "75.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "10.88", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "11.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Toss-up", "pvi_2026": "R+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "3.92", "margin_pres2024": "-3.4", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.96", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.28", "local_residual": "-0.07", "pct_bachelors": "27.6", "pct_white": "75.3", "urban_index": "10.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "85196.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Marie Gluesenkamp Perez" }, { "district_id": "WA-04", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "John Duresky", "rep_candidate": "Amanda McKinney", "dem_pct": "45.77", "rep_pct": "54.23", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "55.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-8.46", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+10", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "-21.23", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "12.77", "local_residual": "-1.57", "pct_bachelors": "23.1", "pct_white": "51.1", "urban_index": "10.07", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "73355.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "WA-05", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Carmela Conroy", "rep_candidate": "Michael Baumgartner", "dem_pct": "49.52", "rep_pct": "50.48", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "56.0", "called": "N", "winner_party": "uncalled", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "uncalled", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-0.96", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-1.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Likely R", "sabato": "Likely R", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "R+5", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-21.26", "margin_pres2024": "-11.11", "swing_vs_house2024": "20.3", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.15", "local_residual": "-4.2", "pct_bachelors": "30.8", "pct_white": "78.9", "urban_index": "10.43", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "67085.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Michael Baumgartner" }, { "district_id": "WA-06", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Emily Randall", "rep_candidate": "Teresa Fox", "dem_pct": "64.79", "rep_pct": "35.21", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "65.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "29.58", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "30.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "13.67", "margin_pres2024": "19.89", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.91", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.69", "local_residual": "-4.66", "pct_bachelors": "33.4", "pct_white": "72.1", "urban_index": "10.58", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "84233.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Emily Randall" }, { "district_id": "WA-07", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Pramila Jayapal", "rep_candidate": "Nirav Sheth", "dem_pct": "87.82", "rep_pct": "12.18", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "57.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "75.64", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "76.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "68.36", "margin_pres2024": "77.56", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.28", "swing_vs_pres2024": "-1.92", "local_residual": "-16.26", "pct_bachelors": "64.6", "pct_white": "62.5", "urban_index": "12.81", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "115418.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Pramila Jayapal" }, { "district_id": "WA-08", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Kim Schrier", "rep_candidate": "Spencer Meline", "dem_pct": "57.62", "rep_pct": "42.38", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "63.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "15.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "15.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "8.18", "margin_pres2024": "5.97", "swing_vs_house2024": "7.06", "swing_vs_pres2024": "9.27", "local_residual": "-5.08", "pct_bachelors": "40.6", "pct_white": "69.1", "urban_index": "10.58", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "119767.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Kim Schrier" }, { "district_id": "WA-09", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "9", "dem_candidate": "Adam Smith", "rep_candidate": "Doug Basler", "dem_pct": "75.62", "rep_pct": "24.38", "other_pct": "-0.0", "pct_reported": "47.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "51.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "51.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "", "margin_pres2024": "42.7", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.54", "local_residual": "-5.81", "pct_bachelors": "40.4", "pct_white": "40.6", "urban_index": "12.44", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "94488.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Adam Smith" }, { "district_id": "WA-10", "state_abbr": "WA", "district": "10", "dem_candidate": "Marilyn Strickland", "rep_candidate": "Chris Chung", "dem_pct": "64.74", "rep_pct": "35.26", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "55.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "29.48", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "30.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "17.35", "margin_pres2024": "18.6", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.13", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.88", "local_residual": "-3.47", "pct_bachelors": "30.5", "pct_white": "60.0", "urban_index": "11.72", "urban_grouping_538": "Dense Suburban", "median_income": "88325.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Marilyn Strickland" }, { "district_id": "WI-01", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Mitchell Berman", "rep_candidate": "Bryan Steil", "dem_pct": "51.96", "rep_pct": "48.04", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "3.92", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "4.0", "ddhq_rating": "Lean R", "cook": "Lean R", "sabato": "Leans R", "inside_elections": "Lean R", "pvi_2026": "R+2", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-10.43", "margin_pres2024": "-4.58", "swing_vs_house2024": "14.35", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.5", "local_residual": "-5.85", "pct_bachelors": "29.7", "pct_white": "74.2", "urban_index": "10.97", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "71781.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Bryan Steil" }, { "district_id": "WI-02", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Mark Pocan", "rep_candidate": "", "dem_pct": "100.0", "rep_pct": "", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "Y", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "", "margin_source": "ddhq_bop", "margin_ddhq": "100.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "40.28", "margin_pres2024": "40.75", "swing_vs_house2024": "", "swing_vs_pres2024": "", "local_residual": "", "pct_bachelors": "46.8", "pct_white": "79.3", "urban_index": "10.6", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "82271.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Mark Pocan" }, { "district_id": "WI-03", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "3", "dem_candidate": "Rebecca Cooke", "rep_candidate": "Derrick Van Orden", "dem_pct": "52.54", "rep_pct": "45.89", "other_pct": "1.57", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "Y", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "6.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "7.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely D", "cook": "Lean D", "sabato": "Leans D", "inside_elections": "Tilt D", "pvi_2026": "R+3", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-2.72", "margin_pres2024": "-7.52", "swing_vs_house2024": "9.48", "swing_vs_pres2024": "14.27", "local_residual": "-0.07", "pct_bachelors": "27.4", "pct_white": "89.1", "urban_index": "9.0", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "67520.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Derrick Van Orden" }, { "district_id": "WI-04", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "4", "dem_candidate": "Gwen S Moore", "rep_candidate": "Tim Rogers", "dem_pct": "79.98", "rep_pct": "17.48", "other_pct": "2.54", "pct_reported": "87.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "D", "leader": "D", "holder_party": "D", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "64.13", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "63.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe D", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "53.88", "margin_pres2024": "52.47", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.25", "swing_vs_pres2024": "11.66", "local_residual": "-2.69", "pct_bachelors": "32.5", "pct_white": "41.0", "urban_index": "12.78", "urban_grouping_538": "Urban-Suburban", "median_income": "54672.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Gwen S Moore" }, { "district_id": "WI-05", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "5", "dem_candidate": "Andrew Beck", "rep_candidate": "Scott Fitzgerald", "dem_pct": "40.95", "rep_pct": "59.05", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-28.93", "margin_pres2024": "-22.45", "swing_vs_house2024": "10.83", "swing_vs_pres2024": "4.35", "local_residual": "-10.0", "pct_bachelors": "39.4", "pct_white": "85.9", "urban_index": "10.76", "urban_grouping_538": "Suburban-Exurban", "median_income": "89947.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Scott Fitzgerald" }, { "district_id": "WI-06", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "6", "dem_candidate": "Brad Smith", "rep_candidate": "Glenn Grothman", "dem_pct": "43.37", "rep_pct": "52.75", "other_pct": "3.88", "pct_reported": "92.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-9.76", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-9.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-22.59", "margin_pres2024": "-16.7", "swing_vs_house2024": "12.84", "swing_vs_pres2024": "6.94", "local_residual": "-7.4", "pct_bachelors": "27.7", "pct_white": "86.1", "urban_index": "9.84", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "68092.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Glenn Grothman" }, { "district_id": "WI-07", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "7", "dem_candidate": "Fred Clark", "rep_candidate": "Michael Alfonso", "dem_pct": "43.92", "rep_pct": "56.08", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "91.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-12.16", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-12.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+11", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-27.21", "margin_pres2024": "-22.84", "swing_vs_house2024": "15.05", "swing_vs_pres2024": "10.68", "local_residual": "-3.66", "pct_bachelors": "24.8", "pct_white": "89.5", "urban_index": "8.42", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "66222.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" }, { "district_id": "WI-08", "state_abbr": "WI", "district": "8", "dem_candidate": "Rick Crosson", "rep_candidate": "Tony Wied", "dem_pct": "45.88", "rep_pct": "54.12", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "93.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-8.24", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-8.0", "ddhq_rating": "Likely R", "cook": "Solid R", "sabato": "Safe R", "inside_elections": "Solid R", "pvi_2026": "R+8", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-14.66", "margin_pres2024": "-16.46", "swing_vs_house2024": "6.42", "swing_vs_pres2024": "8.22", "local_residual": "-6.13", "pct_bachelors": "28.2", "pct_white": "83.8", "urban_index": "10.06", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "71930.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Tony Wied" }, { "district_id": "WV-01", "state_abbr": "WV", "district": "1", "dem_candidate": "Vince George", "rep_candidate": "Carol Miller", "dem_pct": "39.59", "rep_pct": "57.09", "other_pct": "3.32", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.1", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-18.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-43.47", "margin_pres2024": "-45.2", "swing_vs_house2024": "25.37", "swing_vs_pres2024": "27.1", "local_residual": "12.75", "pct_bachelors": "20.8", "pct_white": "89.9", "urban_index": "9.06", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "49609.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Carol Miller" }, { "district_id": "WV-02", "state_abbr": "WV", "district": "2", "dem_candidate": "Ace Parsi", "rep_candidate": "Riley Moore", "dem_pct": "40.59", "rep_pct": "59.41", "other_pct": "0.0", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-18.82", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-19.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-41.54", "margin_pres2024": "-40.38", "swing_vs_house2024": "22.72", "swing_vs_pres2024": "21.56", "local_residual": "7.21", "pct_bachelors": "24.7", "pct_white": "88.4", "urban_index": "9.6", "urban_grouping_538": "Rural-Exurban", "median_income": "59773.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "Riley Moore" }, { "district_id": "WY-AL", "state_abbr": "WY", "district": "AL", "dem_candidate": "Lisa Kinney", "rep_candidate": "Chuck Gray", "dem_pct": "33.67", "rep_pct": "54.53", "other_pct": "7.46", "pct_reported": "95.0", "called": "Y", "winner_party": "R", "leader": "R", "holder_party": "R", "flip": "N", "uncontested": "N", "same_party_runoff": "N", "three_way": "N", "margin_2026": "-23.65", "margin_source": "ddhq_page", "margin_ddhq": "-21.0", "ddhq_rating": "Safe R", "cook": "", "sabato": "", "inside_elections": "Likely R", "pvi_2026": "", "lines": "2024", "margin_house2024": "-50.47", "margin_pres2024": "-46.96", "swing_vs_house2024": "26.82", "swing_vs_pres2024": "23.31", "local_residual": "8.96", "pct_bachelors": "29.0", "pct_white": "81.4", "urban_index": "8.53", "urban_grouping_538": "Mostly Rural", "median_income": "70042.0", "demo_valid": "Y", "incumbent_name": "" } ], "swing_summary": [ { "office": "House", "baseline": "vs 2024 presidential", "median_swing": "14.35", "mean_swing": "14.53", "sd": "6.99", "n": "412" }, { "office": "House", "baseline": "vs previous race", "median_swing": "14.28", "mean_swing": "13.89", "sd": "6.32", "n": "241" }, { "office": "Senate", "baseline": "vs 2024 presidential", "median_swing": "17.61", "mean_swing": "16.25", "sd": "6.41", "n": "31" }, { "office": "Senate", "baseline": "vs previous race", "median_swing": "11.31", "mean_swing": "12.71", "sd": "9.59", "n": "30" }, { "office": "Governor", "baseline": "vs 2024 presidential", "median_swing": "12.16", "mean_swing": "12.05", "sd": "13.52", "n": "34" }, { "office": "Governor", "baseline": "vs previous race", "median_swing": "9.8", "mean_swing": "14.39", "sd": "14.18", "n": "34" }, { "office": "All", "baseline": "vs 2024 presidential", "median_swing": "14.86", "mean_swing": "14.06", "sd": "10.86", "n": "65" }, { "office": "All", "baseline": "vs previous race", "median_swing": "11.12", "mean_swing": "13.6", "sd": "12.18", "n": "64" } ], "swing_by_pres_bucket": [ { "pres_bucket": "R+30 or more", "n": "67", "median_swing": "14.76", "mean_swing": "14.16" }, { "pres_bucket": "R+15 to 30", "n": "99", "median_swing": "15.09", "mean_swing": "14.95" }, { "pres_bucket": "R+5 to 15", "n": "46", "median_swing": "14.09", "mean_swing": "14.99" }, { "pres_bucket": "within 5", "n": "36", "median_swing": "16.52", "mean_swing": "16.71" }, { "pres_bucket": "D+5 to 15", "n": "47", "median_swing": "14.09", "mean_swing": "14.31" }, { "pres_bucket": "D+15 to 30", "n": "50", "median_swing": "14.49", "mean_swing": "14.64" }, { "pres_bucket": "D+30 or more", "n": "67", "median_swing": "12.24", "mean_swing": "12.87" } ], "poll_error": [ { "office": "Senate", "n": "18", "mean_signed_error": "5.94", "ci_lo": "3.9", "ci_hi": "8.1", "mean_abs_error": "6.29", "rmse": "7.51", "share_understating_dems": "0.889", "pct_within_3": "0.222" }, { "office": "Governor", "n": "16", "mean_signed_error": "4.62", "ci_lo": "2.78", "ci_hi": "6.42", "mean_abs_error": "5.07", "rmse": "5.89", "share_understating_dems": "0.875", "pct_within_3": "0.188" }, { "office": "All", "n": "34", "mean_signed_error": "5.32", "ci_lo": "3.88", "ci_hi": "6.77", "mean_abs_error": "5.72", "rmse": "6.79", "share_understating_dems": "0.882", "pct_within_3": "0.206" } ], "poll_bias_history": [ { "cycle": "2014", "bias": "-4.0", "note": "approx. published cycle bias" }, { "cycle": "2016", "bias": "-3.0", "note": "approx. published cycle bias" }, { "cycle": "2018", "bias": "0.0", "note": "approx. published cycle bias" }, { "cycle": "2020", "bias": "-5.0", "note": "approx. published cycle bias" }, { "cycle": "2022", "bias": "1.5", "note": "approx. published cycle bias" }, { "cycle": "2026", "bias": "5.32", "note": "this analysis, state races" } ], "demo_coefs": [ { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_bachelors_or_higher", "term": "const", "coef": "18.034", "se": "1.482", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_bachelors_or_higher", "term": "pct_bachelors_or_higher", "coef": "-0.119", "se": "0.042", "p": "0.004" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_white_nonhispanic", "term": "const", "coef": "20.712", "se": "1.609", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_white_nonhispanic", "term": "pct_white_nonhispanic", "coef": "-0.106", "se": "0.024", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: urbanization_index_538", "term": "const", "coef": "4.39", "se": "3.709", "p": "0.237" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: urbanization_index_538", "term": "urbanization_index_538", "coef": "0.86", "se": "0.345", "p": "0.013" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: median_household_income", "term": "const", "coef": "17.539", "se": "1.654", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: median_household_income", "term": "median_household_income", "coef": "-0.047", "se": "0.021", "p": "0.027" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: margin_pres2024", "term": "const", "coef": "13.878", "se": "0.413", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: margin_pres2024", "term": "margin_pres2024", "coef": "-0.012", "se": "0.015", "p": "0.426" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "term": "const", "coef": "8.372", "se": "5.036", "p": "0.096" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "term": "pct_bachelors_or_higher", "coef": "-0.302", "se": "0.071", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "term": "pct_white_nonhispanic", "coef": "-0.047", "se": "0.028", "p": "0.092" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "term": "urbanization_index_538", "coef": "1.466", "se": "0.405", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "term": "median_household_income", "coef": "0.038", "se": "0.033", "p": "0.258" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "const", "coef": "4.036", "se": "5.289", "p": "0.445" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "pct_bachelors_or_higher", "coef": "-0.085", "se": "0.081", "p": "0.294" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "pct_white_nonhispanic", "coef": "-0.124", "se": "0.034", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "urbanization_index_538", "coef": "2.008", "se": "0.429", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "median_household_income", "coef": "-0.017", "se": "0.031", "p": "0.595" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "term": "margin_pres2024", "coef": "-0.115", "se": "0.025", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_bachelors_or_higher", "term": "const", "coef": "43.525", "se": "8.174", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_bachelors_or_higher", "term": "pct_bachelors_or_higher", "coef": "-0.885", "se": "0.265", "p": "0.001" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_white_nonhispanic", "term": "const", "coef": "26.933", "se": "6.444", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_white_nonhispanic", "term": "pct_white_nonhispanic", "coef": "-0.199", "se": "0.107", "p": "0.064" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_urban", "term": "const", "coef": "9.003", "se": "12.466", "p": "0.47" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_urban", "term": "pct_urban", "coef": "0.07", "se": "0.162", "p": "0.665" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:median_household_income", "term": "const", "coef": "35.578", "se": "6.256", "p": "0.0" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:median_household_income", "term": "median_household_income", "coef": "-0.282", "se": "0.09", "p": "0.002" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "term": "const", "coef": "39.162", "se": "12.502", "p": "0.002" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "term": "pct_bachelors_or_higher", "coef": "-1.383", "se": "0.824", "p": "0.093" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "term": "pct_white_nonhispanic", "coef": "-0.063", "se": "0.107", "p": "0.554" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "term": "pct_urban", "coef": "0.207", "se": "0.22", "p": "0.345" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "term": "median_household_income", "coef": "0.132", "se": "0.285", "p": "0.644" } ], "demo_fits": [ { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_bachelors_or_higher", "n": "253", "r2": "0.037", "adj_r2": "0.034" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: pct_white_nonhispanic", "n": "253", "r2": "0.093", "adj_r2": "0.089" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: urbanization_index_538", "n": "253", "r2": "0.038", "adj_r2": "0.034" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: median_household_income", "n": "253", "r2": "0.021", "adj_r2": "0.017" }, { "level": "district", "model": "univariate: margin_pres2024", "n": "253", "r2": "0.003", "adj_r2": "-0.001" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (demographics)", "n": "253", "r2": "0.183", "adj_r2": "0.17" }, { "level": "district", "model": "multivariate (+ 2024 margin)", "n": "253", "r2": "0.259", "adj_r2": "0.244" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_bachelors_or_higher", "n": "65", "r2": "0.198", "adj_r2": "0.186" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_white_nonhispanic", "n": "65", "r2": "0.076", "adj_r2": "0.061" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:pct_urban", "n": "65", "r2": "0.009", "adj_r2": "-0.007" }, { "level": "state", "model": "univariate:median_household_income", "n": "65", "r2": "0.099", "adj_r2": "0.085" }, { "level": "state", "model": "multivariate", "n": "65", "r2": "0.313", "adj_r2": "0.267" } ], "calibration": [ { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Solid D", "n": "184", "called": "178", "dem_wins": "178", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.98" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Likely D", "n": "18", "called": "18", "dem_wins": "18", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.85" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Lean D", "n": "18", "called": "16", "dem_wins": "16", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.7" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Toss-up", "n": "18", "called": "13", "dem_wins": "13", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.5" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Lean R", "n": "18", "called": "9", "dem_wins": "7", "dem_win_rate": "0.778", "implied_p": "0.3" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Likely R", "n": "17", "called": "12", "dem_wins": "6", "dem_win_rate": "0.5", "implied_p": "0.15" }, { "rater": "Cook (House)", "rating": "Solid R", "n": "162", "called": "146", "dem_wins": "4", "dem_win_rate": "0.027", "implied_p": "0.02" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Solid D", "n": "22", "called": "22", "dem_wins": "22", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.98" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Likely D", "n": "2", "called": "2", "dem_wins": "2", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.85" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Lean D", "n": "6", "called": "6", "dem_wins": "6", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.7" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Toss-up", "n": "12", "called": "9", "dem_wins": "9", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.5" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Lean R", "n": "4", "called": "3", "dem_wins": "1", "dem_win_rate": "0.333", "implied_p": "0.3" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Likely R", "n": "4", "called": "3", "dem_wins": "1", "dem_win_rate": "0.333", "implied_p": "0.15" }, { "rater": "Cook (Senate + Gov)", "rating": "Solid R", "n": "21", "called": "21", "dem_wins": "0", "dem_win_rate": "0.0", "implied_p": "0.02" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Solid D", "n": "191", "called": "186", "dem_wins": "186", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.98" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Likely D", "n": "28", "called": "25", "dem_wins": "25", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.85" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Lean D", "n": "7", "called": "6", "dem_wins": "6", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.7" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Toss-up", "n": "14", "called": "9", "dem_wins": "9", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.5" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Lean R", "n": "19", "called": "12", "dem_wins": "8", "dem_win_rate": "0.667", "implied_p": "0.3" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Likely R", "n": "65", "called": "48", "dem_wins": "8", "dem_win_rate": "0.167", "implied_p": "0.15" }, { "rater": "DDHQ (House)", "rating": "Solid R", "n": "111", "called": "106", "dem_wins": "0", "dem_win_rate": "0.0", "implied_p": "0.02" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Solid D", "n": "188", "called": "182", "dem_wins": "182", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.98" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Likely D", "n": "5", "called": "5", "dem_wins": "5", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.85" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Lean D", "n": "29", "called": "28", "dem_wins": "28", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.7" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Toss-up", "n": "13", "called": "8", "dem_wins": "8", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.5" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Lean R", "n": "16", "called": "10", "dem_wins": "8", "dem_win_rate": "0.8", "implied_p": "0.3" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Likely R", "n": "19", "called": "12", "dem_wins": "5", "dem_win_rate": "0.417", "implied_p": "0.15" }, { "rater": "Inside Elections (House)", "rating": "Solid R", "n": "165", "called": "147", "dem_wins": "6", "dem_win_rate": "0.041", "implied_p": "0.02" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Solid D", "n": "182", "called": "176", "dem_wins": "176", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.98" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Likely D", "n": "19", "called": "19", "dem_wins": "19", "dem_win_rate": "1.0", "implied_p": "0.85" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Lean D", "n": "36", "called": "30", "dem_wins": "29", "dem_win_rate": "0.967", "implied_p": "0.7" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Lean R", "n": "21", "called": "10", "dem_wins": "9", "dem_win_rate": "0.9", "implied_p": "0.3" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Likely R", "n": "16", "called": "13", "dem_wins": "4", "dem_win_rate": "0.308", "implied_p": "0.15" }, { "rater": "Sabato (House)", "rating": "Solid R", "n": "161", "called": "144", "dem_wins": "5", "dem_win_rate": "0.035", "implied_p": "0.02" } ], "forecasts": [ { "source": "Silver Bulletin (Oct 29)", "chamber": "House", "projected_dem_seats": "240", "p_dem_control": "95%" }, { "source": "Decision Desk HQ (Nov 3)", "chamber": "House", "projected_dem_seats": "241", "p_dem_control": "84%" }, { "source": "FiftyPlusOne (Aug 3, not final)", "chamber": "House", "projected_dem_seats": "230", "p_dem_control": "85%" }, { "source": "Silver Bulletin (Oct 29)", "chamber": "Senate", "projected_dem_seats": "53", "p_dem_control": "78%" }, { "source": "Decision Desk HQ (Nov 3)", "chamber": "Senate", "projected_dem_seats": "52", "p_dem_control": "64%" } ], "uniform_swing": [ { "model": "Uniform swing at observed median (D+14.3)", "dem_seats": "262", "called_accuracy": "0.957", "note": "apply median district swing to every 2024 presidential margin" }, { "model": "Uniform swing at generic-ballot implied (D+11.3)", "dem_seats": "243", "called_accuracy": "", "note": "generic ballot D+8.7 vs 2024 House vote R+2.6" } ], "historical": [ { "year": "1994", "president": "Clinton", "party": "D", "approval": "46", "house_seat_change": "-54", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2006", "president": "G.W. Bush", "party": "R", "approval": "38", "house_seat_change": "-32", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2010", "president": "Obama", "party": "D", "approval": "45", "house_seat_change": "-63", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2014", "president": "Obama", "party": "D", "approval": "41", "house_seat_change": "-13", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2018", "president": "Trump", "party": "R", "approval": "40", "house_seat_change": "-41", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2022", "president": "Biden", "party": "D", "approval": "40", "house_seat_change": "-9", "note": "Gallup, approx." }, { "year": "2026", "president": "Trump", "party": "R", "approval": "38", "house_seat_change": "-44", "note": "exit poll; seats = called + D leads (259) vs 215 D after 2024" } ], "upsets": [ { "race_id": "AL-02", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "7.5" }, { "race_id": "IN-05", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "3.58" }, { "race_id": "MO-02", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "5.06" }, { "race_id": "NC-06", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "2.28" }, { "race_id": "NC-09", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "2.22" }, { "race_id": "NC-13", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "2.44" }, { "race_id": "NC-14", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "2.22" }, { "race_id": "NJ-02", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "2.43" }, { "race_id": "NV-02", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "7.06" }, { "race_id": "OH-10", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "1.68" }, { "race_id": "OH-15", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "6.82" }, { "race_id": "SC-01", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "1.04" }, { "race_id": "TX-09", "office": "House", "rating": "Likely R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "15.1" }, { "race_id": "TX-23", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "8.38" }, { "race_id": "VA-01", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "1.2" }, { "race_id": "WI-01", "office": "House", "rating": "Lean R (DDHQ)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "3.92" }, { "race_id": "SC-SEN", "office": "Senate", "rating": "Lean R (Cook)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "4.58" }, { "race_id": "TX-GOV", "office": "Governor", "rating": "Likely R (Cook)", "winner_party": "D", "margin_2026": "7.51" } ] } }